Olympics bets: Preview, tips and analysis ahead of Tokyo 2020 golf

Golf betting tips: Olympics men's competition

2pts e.w. Cameron Smith at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Abraham Ancer at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Sebastian Munoz at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Jazz Janewattananond at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Wherever you stand on golf in the Olympics, it's clear that the men's competition is lacking. The best players from Britain, South Africa and the United States, three strongholds of the sport, have elected not to play. Jon Rahm's positive Covid-19 test and the voluntary absence of Sergio Garcia leaves Spain to be represented by two golfers unrecognisable to casual fans, and headline-making Bryson DeChambeau has also been forced out.

The women's event is different: all of the world's best players are taking part, some in preference to last week's Evian Championship, which is a major. By contrast just 18 of the world's top 50 male players are in Tokyo and while that is partly because participation is limited to four per nation, it's also because some would rather focus on a lucrative FedEx Cup, or September's Ryder Cup, than the prospect of Olympic gold.

Perhaps when the Games takes place absent of concerns over a virus, be that zika or corona, things will be different. I doubt it, though, and it would surely make sense to either expand that cap on players, or better still to convert this to a mixed pairs event. Golf is one of few sports where men and women can compete against each other, and so much could be gained from showcasing that to the uniquely broad audience the Olympics generates.

Instead we're left with a weak men's event in which Collin Morikawa deservedly moves ahead of Xander Schauffele and even Justin Thomas in the betting, following his magnificent Open win. This mature 24-year-old has some Japanese heritage and seems genuinely thrilled at the opportunity to represent the United States as well as his sport in Tokyo, where securing a gold medal to go with his Claret Jug is within his capabilities.

The nagging doubt is that he's struggled immediately after all of his previous four victories, if only for a week or two, and it can be difficult for anyone to go again after (another) career-best performance. With Schauffele short of wins, Thomas a little out of sorts and late addition Patrick Reed having to overcome an exhausting trip from Minnesota, it may be that USA are confined to a bronze at best, as was the case in 2016.

Who is the best bet for gold at Tokyo 2020?

Significantly, that renewal underlined the chasm between the likes of Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson and Matt Kuchar, all of whom were among the world's top 20, and some of those from smaller nations. Throw in the fact many of these haven't played majors and it's no surprise that they were either overwhelmed, outclassed, or both. Every single player in the top 14 entered the event inside the world's top 100, that's of just 29 such candidates who took part.

The figure this time is 28 (of 60), and it will be surprising if gold doesn't go to one of them. In fact, a clean sweep of the medals remains the most likely outcome and with bookmakers offering up to seven places, even uncertainties surrounding the course aren't enough to shake the notion that this is a cracking opportunity for a bet, especially if you also happen to be against Team USA.

First up for me is CAMERON SMITH, whose legend back home will reach new heights if the boy from the Gold Coast can bring home a gold medal.

While some of these aren't necessarily overcome with joy at being in Japan, Rory McIlroy for instance suggesting he feels a duty to play, Smith is exactly like Reed in that he will go anywhere to wear the colours of his country.

When he won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Marc Leishman it was a reprisal of their World Cup partnership and felt like an international performance, and anyone who recalls him downing Thomas on Australian soil in the Presidents Cup will recognise how significant that was to him.

"Any chance I can get to put on the green and gold or a team shirt, I’m all in. I’m a hundred per cent," Smith said after that win in Louisiana. "And I’ll be thrilled if I’m there and contending on the weekend for a gold medal."

None of this is to say there aren't others who will be equally proud or patriotic, but I would argue Smith is among a small group who would put this on a par with or perhaps even ahead of the run of majors we've just come out of, which will doubtless have left a mark on some of those who measure their own success via those four events alone.

Then we've the fact Smith's career really took off in the Far East, where he finished second in Indonesia and has been ninth at Fanling, which is a short, turning, old-school track doubtless somewhat similar to Kasumigaseki. The host course, approaching its centenary year, is typically Japanese in that it twists and turns both ways and it won't be for everyone.

Elsewhere in Asia, Smith has been third, seventh and third in South Korea via the high-class, no-cut CJ Cup, he's played well on all five starts in Malaysia including when in the frame in the CIMB Classic, and he's been 17th and ninth from just three starts here in Japan, too.

As for his peak PGA Tour efforts, Harbour Town and Waialae look to have the most potential in terms of form guides and having won his first solo title at the latter, earlier this year he opened with a round of 62 en route to an overdue top-10 finish at the former. Sedgefield, where he's been seventh, is another classic course with visual similarities and none of them place this modest driver at a disadvantage.

My expectations of Kasumigaseki are similar, based on look and feel and the 2006 Japan Open, which appeared to be about what you do after the tee shot. Smith gains strokes everywhere bar driver, his wedge play among the best in the sport, and this could be right up his street.

Throw in the fact his recent play has been more encouraging than his results might suggest — he's dropped from ninth and third through 54 holes to 30th and 33rd — and there's plenty in his favour at a time when Australian golf is absolutely flying.

• Click here to back Smith with Sky Bet

Home hopes rest primarily with Hideki Matsuyama, who skipped the Open Championship and should be raring to go having recovered from Covid-19. Now a major champion, he looks more capable of carrying expectations than might have been the case but it's still a big ask and while he's twice a course winner, including in the 2010 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship, odds of 14/1 look short enough on balance.

There's also a lot of pressure on Sungjae Im, who will be exempt from military service in his native South Korea if winning a medal. Extra incentive is another way to look at it, but having seen what military service has done to the careers of some of his peers there could be a heck of a lot at stake and it may prove more of a hindrance come the weekend.

Otherwise he'd be of interest for the same reasons as Smith, but instead I'll turn to JOAQUIN NIEMANN and ABRAHAM ANCER.

Here we have another two players who've made absolutely clear that this has been an important event for them, from a long way out. Ancer called it his fifth major, while Niemann explained earlier this year that for him, as a Chilean, it might be more significant.

• Click here to back Niemann with Sky Bet

"For many other guys here, it's probably not a big deal, but for me it is," he said. "We're a small country, and we don't have as much an opportunity as other big countries have. To be covered by all those international outlets, to be part of history, to be in the Olympics and win a medal for my country would be awesome."

Niemann was a play-off loser two starts ago before a decent Open Championship performance, and his form book suggests he'll relish another classic, turning test. Already he's been second at Waialae, fifth at Habour Town, first and fifth at the Old White TPC, second and fifth on a Donald Ross design in Detroit, fifth on a Pete Dye one in Connecticut, and eighth at Colonial.

All of these are short courses which you may not think bring out the best in a seriously long hitter, and yet that's exactly what they do. Niemann says it's because he grew up in Santiago, where virtually every course is old and tight and tree-lined and turning, and he's certainly marked himself down as a real shot-maker who can match long-time practice partner Sergio Garcia for creativity.

Although lacking a little in the way of Asian experience, he did play the ZOZO Championship here in Japan in 2019, and shot 68-68-67 to lie 11th going into the final round, where he struggled. Much improved since and having underlined what sort of golf suits, he could become just the third Chilean to win a gold medal at the Olympics, his prospects no doubt boosted by having friend Mito Pereira competing alongside him.

Could Mexico hold the Ancer?

Ancer was well outside the qualification mark in 2016, when his world ranking was in the five-hundreds. Now, he's firmly established as a solid top-30 player and while winless on the PGA Tour, he's taken his game global with a fine Presidents Cup effort and a dominant win in the Australian Open.

Accurate from the tee and a brilliant iron player, whose short-game is also solid, it's only really the fact he's bumped into exceptional performances from Reed, Webb Simpson and McIlroy that has kept him from winning a PGA Tour title, rather than a lack of something on his part.

• Click here to back Ancer with Sky Bet

He too should find Kasumigaseki to his liking having been second at Harbour Town and excelled on home soil at El Camaleon, and the fact he was second in the World Cup when last representing Mexico is encouraging, especially as his partner at the time was ranked outside the world's top 700.

Also impressing in the Presidents Cup before being taught a thing or two by Tiger Woods in the singles, Ancer has the right game for this and has been one of the most consistent players around this year. He earns the nod over Shane Lowry, who is playing beautifully, raises his game for the big occasion and has form here in the Dunlop Phoenix, and who also looks an each-way runner in a field lacking in depth.

Case for Jazz strikes a chord

Of those at bigger prices, perhaps SEBASTIAN MUNOZ and JAZZ JANEWATTANANOND can compete for bronze or so even if the big prize does prove out of reach.

Munoz made it all the way to East Lake last year and has flirted with the world's top 50, with top-10 finishes there, at the CJ Cup (when it was held in the USA) and the BMW Championship showing how far he's come. Also 14th on a tight, tree-lined course in the WGC-Mexico and 19th on his Masters debut, he has enough about him.

As with my stronger fancies it's his form on potentially similar courses which really stands out, including seventh at the aforementioned East Lake, a win at Jackson Country Club, third at both Colonial and Old White TPC, 10th at Waialae and, just three weeks ago, fourth at TPC Deere Run.

With the exception of third in the RSM Classic all of his best efforts have come on tree-lined courses and he led the field in strokes-gained approach in the John Deere Classic, after which he played just fine in the Open, making nothing worse than a bogey in his 36 holes only to miss the cut on the number.

Having shown flashes in Detroit before these last two efforts he looks to be rounding into form, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see his name on the leaderboard should his short-game hold up this time.

• Click here to back Munoz with Sky Bet

As for Janewattananond, who was 14 when he played here in the 2010 Asia-Pacific Amateur, he's contended for a major (2019 PGA Championship) and while far from consistent, since becoming the dominant force on the Asian Tour he's gone agonisingly close to securing a European Tour breakthrough. Earlier this year he finished second on an old, tree-lined course in Kenya, and in 2019 he contended in Northern Ireland.

Once a regular in Japan (15 starts there in 2019), he held off quality operators like Paul Casey and Thomas Detry to win the Singapore Open and Thai Masters and had a bit about him even before joining forces with Pete Cowen, who has helped this teen prodigy to fulfil his potential.

Whether he's quite good enough right now remains to be seen but he played well in the Open Championship and as far as focusing on Tokyo goes, he might be among a very small group — largely Asian players — who sees this as more important than anything else in the sport.

"I would follow athletics and swimming and there was no golf back then," he told the Asian Tour website of an upbringing which involved attempts to make it as a swimmer. "I used to watch (Michael) Phelps dominate the pool, so it was a thing. The Olympics is the biggest stage for sports and it’s a huge priority for me.

"I don’t like to daydream and I don’t say things like I want to win the Masters one day or the Open. I won’t daydream except for the Olympics. The Olympics is different and I would often think what if I can win an Olympic medal. It’s so weird. I think it is the ultimate for sports."

• Click here to back Janewattananond with Sky Bet

Those comments came earlier this summer, and more recently he's got further wrapped up in the Games by watching compatriot Panipak Wongpattanakit take gold in the women's taekwondo over the weekend.

"Gunn (Charoenkul) and I watched Thailand, and it was pretty amazing even watching it on TV," said the 25-year-old. "We were like, 'Oh my God, this is happening and we’re getting a medal.' It kind of kickstarted our emotions a little bit and we’re now thinking it’s possible even in our sport to win a medal and let’s go do it."

Thailand has a strong hand in the women's event, but Kiradech Aphibarnrat was fifth in 2016 and Jazz looks a potential candidate to pick up a place in the top six or seven, whether or not he can fulfil that childhood ambition and earn himself a medal.

Posted at 1900 BST on 26/07/21

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