Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2.5pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 35/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Matt Fitzpatrick at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Patrick Rodgers at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Talor Gooch at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is an event which has been dominated by international players in recent years, and the prospects of that happening again increased on the day that Rory McIlroy committed, and eight-time course winner Tiger Woods did not.

Woods' absence at a course where he's conjured so many acts of wizardry is a shame, as he focuses on being fit and firing for Augusta. Had he been in the field, he would have been one of several elite players who are desperately searching for something with the season about to crank up a gear.

McIlroy has no such problems, arriving as he does at the very top of his game, and he's the general 5/1 favourite. So he should be. And yet, there's no denying his success here in 2018 was a perfect storm of rain-softened fairways and a red-hot putter; under the firmer conditions of 2019, which we should expect again this time, I don't think this is a perfect course for him.

Not that this means he can't or won't win, but this is the shortest price he's been all year and now doesn't seem the right time to back him.

After Sungjae Im's heroics at the Honda, the prospects of another overseas winner are obvious. It could well be Im again - he's not the kind to have been partying at Nona Blue sinking beerskis with Graeme 'G-Mac' McDowell - but I don't see a concrete reason for the absence of US winners lately, and the home contingent form the basis of my staking plan.

The one argument it's possible to make is that Bay Hill, being typically firm and exposed to a strong Florida breeze, makes some of the home contingent a little uncomfortable. But XANDER SCHAUFFELE has a game that travels and he's fancied to overcome the fact that this is his course debut.

With German and French bloodlines, it's perhaps little wonder Schauffele has been keen to take his game around the world, and so far he's adapted to just about every challenge. First, he threatened to beat subsequent Bay Hill winner Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie, where Kevin Kisner, McIlroy and Justin Rose were alongside him in second, and Kevin Chappell sat alongside Woods in sixth.

Why the detail? Because Kisner ought to have won here, Chappell pushed Jason Day the distance, and Rose has been second and twice third at a course he also loves. That's a strong correlation, and rather than point to a specific link between a links course in Scotland and a water-laden, TPC-style course in the United States, it just tells us that winning at Bay Hill is often about showing the same skills that can propel a player towards a Claret Jug.

When Kisner didn't win, Marc Leishman did, and he's lost a play-off for the Open. Woods will tell you his preferred style of golf is the old-fashioned way, and two-time Open winner Ernie Els is also a two-time winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Schauffele, who has a clean slate of cuts made in the Open, could in time be another to connect the dots.

That's the background, but this is just as much about the here and now. Last time, when the same price for a WGC-Mexico field which included Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Dustin Johnson, Schauffele struck his irons as well as he ever has. Unfortunately, a cold putter and some errant drives on a claustrophobic course kept him away from the front of the leaderboard, but his off-the-tee figures were an anomaly.

Typically, Schauffele is one of the best drivers around, and an off week around Chapultepec seems unlikely to tell us anything about how well he'll drive the ball at Bay Hill, a much wider course off the tee. By contrast, there's no reason he can't continue to hit his approaches well, as that's become just as big a strength as the driver over the last 18 months.

Any improvement on the greens, then, and Schauffele becomes a huge threat. We can't bank on that - as a Californian who putted well when third in last year's US Open, poa annua isn't a great excuse - but if he does bring his A-game from tee-to-green we won't need a great deal more with the putter for him to become a factor.

As for it being his debut, he's proven to be a quick learner. Schauffele won at East Lake as a rookie, where he conceded experience to almost everyone in the field, and he was second here in Florida on his PLAYERS Championship debut. His major record, too, speaks to a player who can adapt to any challenge and that's why he's been able to win from China to Hawaii, again defying a lack of course knowledge at Kapalua, a venue which typically requires it.

At the prices, he looks the best value here as one of the chief threats to McIlroy and if he doesn't live up to expectations this week, watch for positives with a return to Sawgrass in mind.

Some might suggest that Schauffele having finished runner-up four times since his last win is a negative, but I don't see it that way and nor am I suddenly concerned as to MATTHEW FITZPATRICK's ability to get the job done.

Like Schauffele, Fitzpatrick quietly goes about his business but quickly established himself as a fearsome collector of titles, a reputation which took a few hits last year when he blew good chances in Italy and Germany, was unlucky in Sweden, and ran into a red-hot Molinari here at Bay Hill.

I would still trust both of these under the gun and Fitzpatrick, who was also second in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year, is a strong fancy to return to his best now the PGA Tour has landed on the east coast.

Explaining his good golf here in 2019, the baby-faced assassin referenced the obvious factor, stating: "The greens that I've played on a little bit early in the season I struggled a little bit, but I just feel so comfortable on these ones and they're just really pure.

"I really like the golf course a lot, so I do feel comfortable out there."

With finishes of 13th and 27th from four previous visits, Fitzpatrick has a solid bank of Bay Hill form and one of two missed cuts came when he was an amateur, the other during a poor spell of golf.

Two years on from that, he's shown flashes of promises most weeks this year and if his long-game is solid, we should expect the putter to hold up its end of the bargain this time.

In 13 Florida starts, Fitzpatrick has gained an average of more than two strokes per event on the greens, including seven of eight starts since the beginning of 2017. Here at Bay Hill, his record is even better: he averages +4.57 strokes-gained, and it's pretty clear that the speed and the overall feel of these surfaces is very much to his liking.

Having produced excellent putting numbers at Southwind and Sedgefield, other south east courses with similarities to this one, Fitzpatrick will be licking his lips at having another crack at a tournament he led through 54 holes last year before Molinari came roaring past.

He played with McIlroy on Sunday last year and more than held his own. Make no mistake, Fitzpatrick is capable of aggravating Paul Azinger by winning in the US, and this is as good a fit as just about anywhere.

As a new dad who will definitely be inspired by Im, boasts a good record here and played beautifully for the final 54 holes of the Honda Classic, Byeong Hun An was clearly one of the first names on the shortlist this week.

However, he's half the price he was in Phoenix, where there was no McIlroy, no Tommy Fleetwood, and no Adam Scott. In fact, RICKIE FOWLER was 14/1 or so there and now, a handful of starts later, finds himself at 33/1 and basically shoulder-to-shoulder with An in the betting.

None of this is intended to disparage the case for An and those who are siding with him, merely to underline that from a personal perspective he looks short - especially considering the way he played the final few holes last week. Of course, that doesn't mean Fowler is necessarily overpriced, but I think there's a very strong case that he is.

First and foremost, he arrives out of form, on the face of it at least. That's why he's doubled in price and then some from Phoenix, and having been 12/1 for this event last year, it's straightforwardly obvious that his struggles are factored in.

The thing is, I see quite a few small positives. Chiefly, it's been a couple of poor first rounds that have cost him, notably a 75 at Torrey Pines South, 74 when starting his title defence in Phoenix, and 76 last week at the Honda Classic - his first start in a month.

Otherwise, he's been right there. Fowler shot a second-round 68 in the Honda, missing a 12ft eagle putt on the final hole which would've earned him a weekend tee-time. Don't forget, Mackenzie Hughes went from the cut-line to missing a putt for a play-off, and had Fowler holed his eagle try we might have a weekend of strong golf to build a case around.

In Phoenix, his second round was the second best score in the field as he shot 74-65-69-69 for a top-40 place, and before that he got off to a slow start in the Farmers, where his form reads MC-61-MC-MC-MC-66-MC since a bright start to his career there.

Before that, he began the year with fifth place in Hawaii and 10th in the AmEx, so the message from me is that for all there's no doubt he's not been at his best, there's equally ample evidence to suggest his form figures don't go close to telling the full picture.

And with Fowler, that's often been true prior to wins. Working backwards, his latest victory came after he'd finished 66th a week earlier. When he won the Honda Classic here in Florida, he'd endured a mixed start to the year - 36th as second-favourite in Abu Dhabi, a missed cut in the Farmers, and fourth in Phoenix. He won the Deutsche Bank after missing the cut in The Barclays, and the Scottish Open after back-to-back missed cuts.

Even the PLAYERS came from largely out of the blue. He'd made the last 16 at the Match Play, a so-so result, and before that had missed the cut in a weak field in New Orleans. His breakthrough on the PGA Tour came after a share of 10th, but that in turn had followed a missed cut, and all told he's failed to make the weekend within two starts of a win five times already in his career.

That's in stark contrast to Jason Day, who is a similar price and has a similar profile, but whose victories have almost all been smack-you-in-the-face obvious. Fowler has managed to find something and run with it, and I'm hopeful a strong second round in the Honda, where his putter - arguably Fowler's main weapon - was back firing again. There's a chance he can take a major step forward here.

As for the course, he's been third here, he's contended on a couple of other occasions, and he won the junior Bay Hill event back in 2006. After that he forged a particularly strong bond with Palmer and has been dubbed his natural successor by many. To do that he'll need to go and win those majors he's so often contended for, but there is another way he can tie himself even closer to The King and that's by winning here.

Fowler has been the effective event host for a couple of years, but he insists he rises to that kind of challenge and he has played well without quite seeing things through. Arriving slightly off the radar, playing in a feature group which is actually rather low-key, this looks a great time to chance him at a big price.

Abraham Ancer is tempting as Im's Presidents Cup team-mate, who arrives in good form himself and could be the latest member of Els' side to strike. He won an Australian Open in tricky, breezy, firm conditions, and Bay Hill ought to suit better than he was able to show after a wretched putting performance last year.

He's respected along with Billy Horschel, who maintains that his game is in good shape. Horschel is 60/1 from 28/1 last week, whereas Im has gone from 33/1 to 28/1, and there's a definite risk of reading too much into one tournament. Having played very well here in the past, Horschel is in fact the one named left out from my initial shortlist who earned a second, third, and fourth glance.

But at the odds I prefer the talented PATRICK RODGERS, who loves Bay Hill and has the ability to go ahead and make his first PGA Tour win a significant one.

Rodgers went closest when second to Bryson DeChambeau in the John Deere Classic and runner-up again in the RSM Classic, but he's contended in high-class company behind Rory at Quail Hollow and DJ at Riviera, and this Stanford stud might just be the type to win when everyone is looking elsewhere.

His game looks as good now as it has for a while, with seven cuts made in eight and the one failure no disaster at all at Pebble Beach. Crucially, his iron play was good at the Honda and that's been the missing piece of a complex puzzle which began when he burst on the scene at the same time as JT, and with a similar reputation.

Unlike Thomas, Rodgers is still looking to put everything together but a course like Bay Hill, where par-five performance and strong putting are vital, puts him on the radar as a player with an ideal profile - just like Wyndham Clark, but with a fair few points added onto the price.

Rodgers has made three cuts in four starts here and it's clear he absolutely adores the venue.

"It's a golf course that's easy to love," he said a couple of years ago. "Even before that weekend last year I played well here in the past. It's a golf course I always grew up watching the tournament every year and it's kind of one of those where I knew every hole before I even got here. So it's just an absolute pleasure to play and I think it fits my game well and it just inspires me to play well around here.

"I love the greens, I love how fast and slopy the greens are. The strength of my game the last couple years has been putting and I tend to putt my best the faster the greens get. So I love that you have to think your way around the golf course and you have to manage it and put it in the right spots. I like those golf courses that are a challenge and really make you use your mind."

Unlike last week, Rodgers can put his prodigious driving to use here and as one of the stronger par-five players on the circuit, I'd be confident that he can translate 21st in the Honda to something much better should he hold onto whatever it was that helped him hit largely excellent approach shots.

The putter certainly shouldn't let him down and he looks a big player at a big price.

Others on the radar include Adam Long, who flushed it last week, just as he did when closing for 10th place in this last year. He was in awful form at the time following a shock win in California, and is, like Rodgers, a Florida resident. I'm not sure his ceiling is that high, but when he's on he tends to stick around and there are worse 200/1 shots.

Beau Hossler is getting there again and Maverick McNealy is an absolute stud, but on this occasion I prefer the claims of TALOR GOOCH.

He's quietly developing into a really solid player, driving the ball exquisitely over his last couple of starts and putting together a run of cuts made which stretches back 11 events - enough to put him eighth on Tour, alongside McNealy and Rahm.

Gooch is now putting to a solid and consistent level, which is complementing some quality approach work, and with other parts of his game ticking over nicely it looks a question of timing as he's playing well enough to contend very soon.

Here at Bay Hill, where he was 26th during a slump in his rookie season, he makes plenty of appeal. That performance was powered by more excellent ball-striking - he ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach - and this Oklahoma man looks at his best when conditions are tough and there's a bit of breeze around.

That wasn't necessarily the case here a couple of years ago and, given that he's improved again since, he could make an impression right towards the top of the leaderboard as the USA look to wrest back an event steeped in history, and played in honour of this great country's favourite golfing son.

Posted at 1330 GMT on 03/03/20

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