European Tour: ISPS HANDA UK Championship betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Haotong Li at 20/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

2pts e.w. Martin Kaymer at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Gavin Green at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Benjamin Hebert at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

The Belfry is the final stop of the European Tour's UK Swing before the bubble moves onto the continent, and the themes of the last few weeks remain. Once more, we're playing a tournament which was not on the original schedule, at a course which hasn't hosted top-level golf in some years. Preparations have been last-minute with organisers more concerned over on-site hospitality than the courses themselves, and it may well be that the weather dictates just how tricky things get.

That was the case at Celtic Manor, which was presented like-for-like across a fortnight stay, and yet produced two very different challenges thanks to the wind and rain of last week. Here, at the Brabazon, we may well get both in one with plenty of rain in the run-up and through the first two rounds, before what promises to be a bright, mild, late-summer weekend.

Hand on heart, I am not the biggest fan of the course, but it is at least set up for excitement. All three par-fives are reachable and two of them come towards the end of the round, before a tough finishing hole which became somewhat famous during the 2003 Ryder Cup. Then there's the 10th; a fun, driveable par-four which poses a genuine question, and it will be these holes which provide the real opportunities.

The rest of the course is fairly unremarkable, but it did once provide a genuine challenge thanks to relatively thick rough and tricky greens. Rewind the clock to past renewals of the British Masters and the Benson & Hedges, and you'll see that anyone reaching double-figures under-par was placed, as a collection of the circuit's strongest ball-strikers dominated year after year.

That was true in 2008, when a jet-lagged Lee Westwood had his pocket picked by Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, and for better or worse the Brabazon should unearth another high-class winner. Throughout the UK Swing that's exactly what we've had, with Sam Horsfield clearly on his way to the top 50 in the world, Andy Sullivan a one-time Ryder Cup player, Renato Paratore a hugely talented if inconsistent youngster, and Romain Langasque now ready to pick up the baton which Victor Dubuisson presumably tossed into a lake while fishing.

All of these were somewhere between 20/1 and 66/1 in the market, with Rasmus Hojgaard, Thomas Detry, Thomas Pieters and Sami Valimaki among those offering most resistance. It's been a parade of young, aggressive players who've found the nature of these courses straightforward enough, and we ought to expect something similar for all that the Belfry might level the playing field just a little.

This event is complicated by the arrival of a handful of players who've been out in the USA, and it's a little difficult to get a handle on most of them. Matt Wallace is attached to the course and spends a lot of his off-time here, and he may find he's able to get his long-game back on track after a range session with Robert Rock. Bernd Wiesberger has started to improve lately and brings strong 2019 form to the table, Matthias Schwab is clearly a winner-in-waiting, and Victor Perez showed signs of life in the PGA Championship, too.

It's quite possible that any one of these capitalises on the drop in grade but HAO-TONG LI is right up there with them and has the benefit of having played the Wales Open, where he was pleasantly surprised by everything from the COVID-19 protocols to the food dished up inside the Celtic Manor hotel.

I thought it was significant that Paratore won the first event in the UK as he was one of a handful of quality players who'd played in Austria previously, thus familiarising himself with the on-site testing and robust measures the European Tour have in place. It would be fair to describe them as more stringent than the PGA Tour equivalent, and it's definitely of some benefit that Li has now been through them once.

He played really well at Celtic Manor, too, ranking second in strokes-gained approach and first tee-to-green and making a field-leading 19 birdies on his way to eighth. That came after a highly-encouraging share of 17th in the PGA Championship and I suspect he'll enjoy the slightly easier conditions expected here in the midlands.

"I got a lot of confidence over there," he said of his effort in San Francisco, which came after a low-key return in the previous week's WGC.

“I felt like I can compete with those guys when I was playing there. I really enjoyed it, it was a great experience. Before then I hadn’t played in quite a while. I’m finding a lot of confidence now and hopefully I can go low (in the Wales Open)."

If the formula remains as it used to be here and the winner is a high-class operator who hits a lot of greens and won't mind a steady breeze, then Li fits the bill. He's figured highly in the greens-in-regulation charts since returning, he's been third in an Open Championship here in England, and he looks as likely as anyone to win this tournament.

MARTIN KAYMER is among those to have arrived from the US and while I do have slight reservations over the fact they all have to slip into this new set of protocols, the level-headed German will take it all in his stride.

Kaymer started really well in the PGA Championship before a second-round blowout and does have to defy a run of three missed cuts now, but there are several small factors in his favour here and I expect him to do that.

First and foremost, he has Belfry experience having played here in 2007 on his way to rookie of the year honours. Despite plenty of modest golf in the weeks prior to the event and still not having his best long-game, not to mention the fact he was making his debut at a course most players of that time knew really well, he finished an excellent 21st behind champion Westwood.

Since then he's produced plenty of quality golf in the UK, winning the Scottish Open and the Dunhill Links, and what I really like is that he can be relied upon to hit greens. That's been vital here and Kaymer is the European Tour leader in greens hit from 2018 to today, ahead of Tommy Fleetwood, in a demonstration that his game is very much heading back in the right direction.

These long-game improvements have helped him to steady the ship as he works towards the Olympics and the next Ryder Cup, his two long-term targets. At the start of the year it looked as if he was ready to perform to the levels required to make both, with four top-20 finishes from four starts, and he can get back into that form over the coming weeks and months.

Finally, it has to be a plus that compatriot Sophia Popov produced such a brave, memorable victory in the Women's Open at the weekend. Indeed Kaymer rang her soon after to offer his congratulations, telling her it reminded him of his own successes at the top level. One of the finest golfers of his generation, he has plenty more to offer and this is the sort of tournament he ought to be contending in.

Speaking of inspiration, we've had two French winners since the restart and BENJAMIN HEBERT is overpriced to make it three.

Another who has emerged tentatively out of lockdown, Hebert contended in the Hero Open where he was seventh through 54 holes, his first start since the spring. That was his means of preparing for the PGA Championship and while that didn't go to plan, we shouldn't be surprised - a major championship on a big golf course in the US is just a step or two beyond him all things considered.

This is much more his level and three play-off defeats last year show that he's been banging loudly on the door. That career-best campaign might not have been rewarded as he'd have liked, but Hebert was 16th in the Race To Dubai (one place ahead of Schwab) and having started this season well enough, it's a little surprising to see him so far down the betting, surrounded by players whose long-term form simply isn't as good.

The Belfry should suit, too, as he's a wonderful iron player who is neat and tidy off the tee, while his form in the UK includes one of those play-off defeats plus victory at Stoke-by-Nayland. That's another short-ish, hotel course where scoring nevertheless doesn't get out of hand, and that's been true of all of Hebert's victories at a lower level.

It's still to happen for him on the European Tour but he's getting there and there's absolutely no hesitation in siding with him at 66/1.

Aaron Rai is certainly tempting at a similar price, as a quality young player who hits greens for fun, hails from Wolverhampton and knows this course inside-out. He just isn't making enough birdies - less than two per round last week, for example - and I suspect backers might be in for another frustrating four days aboard the par train.

Scottish golf is on the up and there are some interesting candidates here, not least Calum Hill who was eighth at Celtic Manor and has started to hit his irons really well once more. Three Challenge Tour wins and another on the Outlaw Tour underline his winning capabilities while Craig Howie shouldn't be dismissed as a place contender at 250/1, either, given the quality of his play last week and in Austria.

The other French players all earned a second glance, and Mathieu Fenasse a third. He's not done a great deal yet at the age of 28, but has got a Pro Golf Tour win to his name and played well at Qualifying School last November. Fenasse ranked second in fairways and first in greens last week in a Rai-like display of ball-striking, but whether he's quite up to muscling his way into the mix I wouldn't be sure.

Instead it's back to the front end of the market and there are three candidates to whittle down to one. Jordan Smith continues to hit greens and threaten but he was ultimately a little disappointing in Wales, where Ryan Fox again lurked on the fringes of contention. The latter is somewhat interesting as he's hitting the ball well, and some of his best play has come at the end of long stretches of week-to-week starts.

Still, his short-game has held him back for nine months now so rather than roll the dice in the hope it might land on a six, I'll stick with the upwardly mobile GAVIN GREEN who has bags of scope to improve even on last week's eighth place.

For a brief time during the final round this young Malaysian was close to the lead, but his failure to capitalise on the ninth, 11th, 15th and 18th holes was the difference between a top-10 finish and a place on the podium.

Still, it was a step forward on the previous week when he'd rattled home for 11th, which in turn was an improvement on his comeback run in the English Championship, and it hasn't taken long for Green to return to the sort of form which saw him put together form figures of 15-21-27-3-18-12 in the early part of the year.

His iron play over the last two weeks has been outstanding and he remains an excellent putter, so it's just a case of tidying up from the tee. He should find the Brabazon less penal than Celtic Manor, where there's much more trouble to be found, and one way or another it shouldn't take him long to dial in the driver once again.

Green is up there with the best maidens on the circuit, a group which included Horsfield and Langasque until recently, and he has a very strong record in the wind. There's no reason he can't continue to build on the last fortnight and underline exactly why he's at the very top of the European Tour's strokes-gained statistics for the season.

Others on the longlist included Laurie Canter, who was 13th here in a EuroPro event six years ago and has really started to fire of late, bagging two top-10s and contending in another event. He excels off the tee and is putting well, but there would just be a slight worry as to his profile for this as those who pound greens have always dominated on this course.

Maverick Antcliff is right up there when it comes to hitting greens lately and this talented Aussie could surprise a few, but week after week we've been presented with similar leaderboards and it really ought to pay to stick with those towards the top of the betting or, as is the case with Hebert, players who are at least proven at this level.

Posted at 1250 BST on 25/08/20

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