Sebastian Munoz to beat Michael Thompson and Brian Gay (1800 GMT)
Anyone who backed SEBASTIAN MUNOZ on Thursday may well wince at the mere sight of his name. The Colombian played beautifully for 17 holes, stood on the 18th tee at four-under, and then hit a pull into water which resulted in a triple-bogey seven. Worse, it meant for a dead-heat with Michael Thompson in what had for the most part been an uncompetitive three-ball.
Still, given that Brian Gay shot 80, I am surprised the prices within this group haven't been adjusted a little more and that we can back Munoz at 5/4 to gain compensation. Gay really shouldn't be a factor yet takes up almost 25 per cent of the book. He's never liked Sawgrass, he has no chance of making the cut, and nothing he's done so far in 2021 suggests he'll improve by more than a few shots at best, and even that is likely to require one of his lights-out putting days.
If we do view this as a match, backing Munoz at odds-against looks a steal, knowing a two-way tie would ultimately resulted in stakes returned with a little interest. It's not that Thompson can be easily taken on, after a solid 71 of his own, but I don't believe his form here or indeed anywhere lately puts him on a par with the favourite, which is not far away from how bet365 and Unibet have it.
What's more, while Munoz did rely somewhat on a hot putter to post his 71, his long-game has been very solid of late and I would anticipate improvement at a course he's taken to pretty well. Remember, while this is officially his debut he did play in the aborted 2020 renewal and shot 70, so he's two-from-two at Sawgrass when it comes to beating par.
I won't argue there's masses between these two, but there certainly is something: 45 places in the world rankings or, more pertinently, something in the region of half a stroke per round based on form since the beginning of the 2019/20 season. Given that Munoz was one swing away from winning this three-ball by at least a couple of shots on Thursday, I think there's a strong case he should be shorter than he is to make amends on Friday.
Posted at 2210 GMT on 11/03/21
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