Justin Thomas can make another fast start in the Open Championship as Ben Coley previews the first round.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Justin Thomas at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Rafa Cabrera Bello at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Chez Reavie at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 175/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
While the first-round leader market always teases that possibility of a bumper payday, the reality of the Open Championship in recent years has been somewhat different.
Since Rory McIlroy dominated from the off here in 2014, the worst player to have led after Thursday’s play – crude term, admittedly – is Kevin Kisner. By the time he’d collected his cheque for an eventual runner-up finish behind Francesco Molinari last year, he was back inside the world’s top 25.
There have been some surprising names close enough, though, and they include Zander Lombard, second to Kisner at Carnoustie where he was in the thick of things before a final-round 82.
That very much is the risk with this talented but combustible youngster from South Africa, but at 200/1 it’s worth taking on board as he’s so often threatened the top of the leaderboard under links conditions.
Two weeks ago in the Irish Open he sat second before going on to share the lead at halfway, and having been runner-up in the Amateur Championship played here at Portrush he boasts some strong, competitive form at a course which is new to so many.
Romain Langasque played in the same renewal with far less success, but after last week’s excellent third-place finish in Scotland he could also threaten the top of the leaderboard.
Matt Kuchar and Phil Mickelson have both led the Open after an excellent warm-up in the Scottish Open, and Langasque was bullish during what amounts to a personal best on the European Tour.
“I will arrive over there really confident and this is a tough golf course, I have played there as an amateur and I remember this is really tough,” he said. “But I like the tough course. I like the tough conditions, so I'm looking forward to having that next week and I hope I will be ready to have my chance again.”
Having won the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie a year after struggling at Portrush, he has some solid links credentials and from a bright and early tee-time could also do some damage.
Those two are backed to small stakes with Justin Thomas the pick of the elite players in the field at 45/1.
Thomas has a poor Open record overall, but he’s spoken at length in recent days about his love for this style of golf. He even confessed to having recently spent an evening watching re-runs of the 2013 Open won by Mickelson at Muirfield.
In time, I’ve no doubt he’ll become a contender for the Claret Jug and it could be here, as his approach play has been superb since returning from injury and that will carry him a long way.
Last week’s Scottish Open performance was just ideal, and for all that his Open record does raise some doubts, have a look at his first-round positions: fourth at Troon, sixth at Birkdale, eighth at Carnoustie.
Another who has been regularly starting well is Chez Reavie, one place behind Thomas in the first-round leader stats where they’re third and fourth respectively this year.
Reavie in fact has four top-eight finishes in the first-round leader market from his latest five starts, including when ultimately missing the cut last time. Among this stretch he’s won for the first time in almost a decade and bagged by far his best major finish, third place at Pebble Beach.
Clearly, this is a man at the top of his game or very close to it, and while again his Open record is modest from just two tries, he was eighth after round one at Carnoustie. It’s not unreasonable to hope for a small step forward playing alongside a former winner in Paul Lawrie.
Rafa Cabrera Bello is in excellent form, he’s already professed to loving a course at which he was second in the 2012 Irish Open, and he’s been second, sixth, 12th and 19th in this market at this tournament.
Playing from an ideal tee-time in the morning wave, 66/1 about one of the field’s in-form players is too big to resist and he completes the staking plan for a really nice market.
Finally, a word on the first-round three-balls. There simply aren't any I'm particularly sweet on, so there will be no recommended bets, but there was a word in the media centre that Alex Noren was struggling and it could be valuable to someone.
Noren is a marginal favourite to beat youngster Sam Locke, who ought to struggle, and Mike Lorenzo Vera, who ought to play well. He's done so for much of the year, after all, and his dynamite short-game combined with the woes of the Swede make 6/4 the most tempting price on the coupon.
Posted at 2100 BST on 16/07/19.
