Ben Coley looks ahead to the second round of the Open Championship, where Christiaan Bezuidenhout can again win his three-ball.
Golf betting tips: The Open Championship round two
1pt double Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy to win their three-balls at 4.95/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
2pts Christiaan Bezuidenhout to beat Min Woo Lee and Sam Horsfield at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
4pts Padraig Harrington to beat Brad Kennedy and Sam Forgan at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Thomas to beat Fleetwood and Scott (1009 BST)
It's a shame that the Open Championship remains a little behind the times when it comes to data and statistics. Most of the old-fashioned elements of this great event are charming but there's no good reason for antiquated stats when everyone could be more enlightened, better informed, by numbers which we can easily access for minor events but not a couple of the majors.
At least there's a route to strokes-gained information at the Masters, whereas at the Open, if there is one, it would be fair to say me and most of the golf betting public do not know of it. Instead we know about driving accuracy, putts per round, sand saves and greens hit, but nothing of who was most effective off the tee or on the greens, who hit the best approaches, whose short-game really was sharp.
For that reason I'm going to focus on what I saw on Thursday, which means the marquee groups in the morning, as well as an inside word on which there's more further down. Before that, JUSTIN THOMAS looks overpriced at 6/4 in places and 11/8 with plenty to beat Tommy Fleetwood and Adam Scott.
This is a classic overreaction to one round, in my mind at least, and suddenly because of 18 holes, we're supposed to consider Fleetwood the equal of Thomas. They're ranked 35th and third in the world and while Fleetwood's links smarts count for a lot, and are why he made my staking plan before the event, that doesn't justify making this each-of-two.
My impression was that Thomas struggled badly on the greens but otherwise played quite nicely in the first round. That's in part backed up by the fact he ranked second in greens, itself a welcome upturn, and I suspect strokes-gained approach data would confirm that his irons have sharpened considerably from Scotland last week.
I'll be happy enough if Fleetwood bosses this match and moves into the top five or so ahead of the weekend, having done really well to shoot 67 in tougher afternoon conditions, a round which roughly matches that of tournament favourite Jordan Spieth if we adjust for scoring difficulty.
He'll need to sharpen up a little off the tee but signed off with an excellent birdie and is of course respected. I simply don't believe he's Thomas's equal under any conditions, and certainly not because of one round in which Thomas made nothing bar a long one early doors. The American has a fine attitude and I can see him producing one of the best scores of the morning wave on Friday.
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McIlroy to beat Reed and Smith (1020 BST)
Where RORY MCILROY is concerned, we also have a price drift after he was beaten by a single shot, in his case a slightly smaller one. Still, 6/4 and even a shade bigger with one firm looks generous and I love the way he battled back to shoot a level-par 70 and remain somewhat in the mix should the draw level out.
Unfortunately that's no guarantee, but the fist-pump he offered when curling home a short birdie putt on the 18th green demonstrated how pleased he was to claw his way back to even, a psychological boost which should set him up to go and attack under what ought to be slightly easier conditions.
Last time he played in this great championship, McIlroy shot a Friday 65 to miss the cut by a shot. That sort of score is within his compass if he can sure up just a little on and around the greens, where some short missed putts were ultimately the difference between a grinding, decent day, and what might've been a very good one.
Patrick Reed clearly struggled and has work to do to keep up his run of major top-20s, with Cameron Smith looking a bigger threat. The Australian hinted at the Travelers that he's coming back to form and is respected under these conditions, but the Thomas-McIlroy double is close to 5/1 and well worth a small play.
Harrington to beat Kennedy and Forgan (0741 BST)
Nothing scientific to this one: PADRAIG HARRINGTON looks the banker of the morning and could prove an absolute steal at 10/11 against Brad Kennedy and Sam Forgan.
The reason he is touching evens is that Harrington didn't win this match in round one. He had been ahead entering the back-nine, but Aussie veteran Kennedy came home in one-under, and the Irishman bogeyed the final hole.
Still, my view is that if he was a tempting 8/11 chance for the first go, 10/11 for the second is too big. Again, one round changes very little and his links experience, recent form and class edge all remain. If the course is toughened up, which is possible, he will be at an even greater advantage, and Forgan in particular will struggle to match a solid 73 to start.
Harrington probably wins this if he shoots another 72. He's well capable of bettering that score.
Bezuidenhout to beat Lee and Horsfield (1231 BST)
For an afternoon wager, I had already been weighing up CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT to beat Min Woo Lee and Sam Horsfield before a welcome nudge from the course.
Bezuidenhout won this three-ball on day one, but remains odds-against despite Lee's struggles. That seemed immediately generous, and I scoured the Open's Virtual Media Centre for Lee's transcript, expecting him to confirm he's running on fumes after last week's emotional Scottish Open success.
"Yeah, I mean, on the last hole I was mentally drained," he confessed. "I think I got a bit caught up in just the golf round. I won last week; I should be happy. But I'm going to enjoy this afternoon off and hopefully play well tomorrow. I've got not too much pressure on my back, and it was very nice to get that win. I'm just going to go out there tomorrow and try to make a lot of birdies."
Encouraging though these words were, the kicker came via Matt Cooper's Open Source feature. In it, Matt reveals that Lee's off-mic comments were perhaps more honest, and that he really doesn't have anything left. That plus an attacking mindset from a big hitter at a course with really thick rough looks a recipe for disaster.
If that proves to be the case, Bezuidenhout has Horsfield to beat. I'm a huge fan of the Englishman, but he took a big backward step at the US PGA after a bright start and is nothing if not volatile. Nor does he have what I would consider to be an ideal game for this, especially if the going gets tough, whereas Bezuidenhout is accurate, deadly with his approaches, and a wizard on the greens.
As Royal St George's begins to dry out, we might see the South African's old-school game prove much too mature for these young thrashers with whom he's grouped. And, at odds-against, he rates the bet of the afternoon.
Posted at 2115 BST on 15/07/21
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