The Open is well under way and we have three-ball selections for the later starters, including Rory McIlroy in one of the marquee groups.
Golf betting tips: The Open Championship round one
3pts Aaron Rai to beat Paul Waring and Daniel Croft at evens (General)
2pts Rory McIlroy to beat Patrick Reed and Cameron Smith at 11/8 (General)
1pt Chan Kim to beat Justin Harding and Hao-tong Li at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley to lead after the first round at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts Rory McIlroy to lead after the first round at 33/1 (Unibet, BetVictor)
0.5pt e.w. Sam Bairstow to lead after the first round at 350/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds - 11 places | Paddy Power - 12 places | Betfair Sportsbook
First-round leader
When last the Open Championship came to Royal St George's, a significant draw bias looked likely after those who played on Thursday afternoon found themselves at a distinct advantage. Thanks to some foul weather later on things levelled out a little more than had perhaps been expected, but come the end of the tournament, 18 of the top 24 came from that late-early section, including Darren Clarke.
As I type, with just 10 hours until tee-off, late starters might have what looks to be the best of it, but it's hard to see a significant bias in the forecast. That's not to say no such bias will emerge; only that as of now, it doesn't look easy to predict. If anything, however, Thursday again calls for a calming of the breeze at around 1pm, and while it's negligible, if the forecast is right there will be fewer gusts to deal with.
With that in mind, KEEGAN BRADLEY looks a straightforward play at anything around the 100/1 mark and upwards.
A habitual fast starter, Bradley was put up on these pages at the PGA Championship where for much of the first round the lead looked like it might be his. That was until Corey Conners usurped him late on, but Bradley's tie for second was just fine at 66/1.
Just a handful of starts later, and after an eye-catching display in the Rocket Mortgage Classic where, unsurprisingly, low-scoring conditions were not ideal, he's twice the price. That's because he's American. And yet an American has led after the first round of the Open Championship in each of the last five renewals, while Bradley himself was placed in this market at Troon in 2016.
His overall Open record is solid, and ever since his first top-tier win in something close to a Texas gale, he's been a good wind player. Soft fairways should only help underline his advantage over most off the tee and in a decade on the PGA Tour, only in his rookie season was he outside the top 25 percent in round one scoring average. Right now, he's 13th.
The case really is as simple as it gets and when you throw in what looks an ideal tee-time at 1404 BST, he becomes one of the most compelling bets of the week, even if this is the most volatile market of them all.
I'm also going to recommend a win-only go on RORY MCILROY, off at 1523 BST and more than capable of ensuring reporters have to wait a while before filing their nightleads.
McIlroy has twice led the Open after the first round, that's in 11 tries, and he's done it twice this season, both in events where he had previous. It was hard not to be taken with the way he spoke earlier in the week, revealing that he'd found something in practice on Sunday which has him feeling really good about his swing, and he's vastly underrated as a links golfer.
Soft fairways and a calming of the breeze just before he tees off are an ideal recipe and while he's suffered a few too many major hiccups to be a confident fancy, I expect he'll be determined to right the wrongs of Portrush and get off to a flier. At 33/1, or better yet 40.0 on Betfair Exchange, he looks as likely as anyone to be atop the leaderboard on Thursday night.
Links specialist Ryan Fox is on the shortlist having started well more than once in the Dunhill Links, plus at a breezy Le Golf National and in Saudi Arabia, where his power has probably been key but several other coastal golf fans have thrived.
However I'm going to roll the dice with SAM BAIRSTOW, an in-form amateur from Sheffield who has been playing well lately and, crucially, doing so on links courses in Scotland.
This is a massive step up, obviously, but Tom Lewis shared the lead here in 2011 while still an amateur and his preparation surely had something to do with it. Lewis had played in the Lytham Trophy, the Irish Amateur, the St Andrews Links Trophy and the Amateur Championship before rocking up here and shooting 65 in the company of Open legend Tom Watson.
Bairstow has been playing at Southerness, St Andrews, Nairn and Dunbar north of the border, and contending too, and it's just possible that from a good tee-time (1337 BST) he can put all this experience to use.
"I qualified at a links course, and was in Scotland for four weeks playing links golf," he told the England Golf podcast. "I've got pretty used to it... sort of accept the challenge it has. I really enjoy playing it: see what weather you get and try and battle it."
Make no mistake, the likelihood is that he struggles, but he's surrounded by experience and if an amateur is going to make headlines in a major, it's likely this one. That's what happened when Rory was inside the top three after the first round of his debut, when Paul Dunne led through 54 holes in 2015, when Justin Rose brought the house down at Birkdale, and when Chris Wood finished fifth at the same course.
Laird Shepherd played in the same events as Bairstow and (semi-) famously won the last of them, his comeback in the Amateur Championship one of the most remarkable that event has ever witnessed. However, his overall form doesn't appear to be as strong, and he finds himself teeing off early, so preference is for the left-hander who has Pete Cowen helping him.
Rai to beat Waring and Croft (1136 BST)
AARON RAI has already been advised for a top-40 finish and he looks a rock-solid investment to beat Paul Waring and Daniel Croft.
Rai's form is good, having put up a decent defence of his Scottish Open title following a top-20 finish in Ireland, and he's got links form too having defied poor conditions to beat Tommy Fleetwood at the Renaissance in September. He's also been inside the top-10 in the same event at Gullane and his accuracy and solid scrambling are a nice combination for Royal St George's.
In his last two starts, those weapons have been firing with nobody scrambling better over the last fortnight, and nobody more accurate. All of this means the quiet Wolverhampton pro, twice a winner on the European Tour, should be ready to make his first major cut and produce a performance more in line with a pair of excellent efforts in World Golf Championship events.
Croft is a PGA professional who deserves enormous credit for making it this far, coming through Regional and Final Qualifying before sharing an emotional call with his dad after sealing his place. He's likely to find this very difficult with no tour-level experience to his name, and odds of 9/2 might overestimate his chance. To win this three-ball he will need the other two to play poorly.
Waring might, at least. He's missed six cuts and also withdrawn once in just nine appearances this year, only briefly finding solace under the lights-out scoring conditions of the Canary Islands. Although still driving it well, everything else is misfiring and a couple of high scores followed by an early exit seem likely.
Rai is evens with several firms and a shade of odds-on with others. If he plays as he has been he should be far too good and his superiority right now allows for a bad bounce here or there.
McIlroy to beat Reed and Smith (1521 BST)
Patrick Reed has a good Open record and is playing well in majors, while Cameron Smith can at some stage built on the improvement he showed at Portrush. But RORY MCILROY is underestimated as a links golfer, one with an Open win and four further top-10s, and I'm surprised he and Reed are so close together in the market for this three-ball.
Perhaps that's in part a reflection of the Portrush episode, and the destructive opening tee-shot which is a ghost he'll need to lay to rest. Perhaps it's the product of a poor fortnight, although he plainly doesn't much like the Renaissance and missed the cut there on the number. Whatever the case I believe he deserves to be a stronger favourite and at 11/8 there's plenty of value here.
Indeed, current odds of 27.0 on the exchanges are also too big. McIlroy says he found something on Sunday and feels really good about his swing, which hasn't necessarily been the message of late. He was in the mix at the US Open, a welcome sight after several poor major performances, and a rain-softened Royal St George's, and what could be a good tee-time, looks an ideal starting point.
His record in the first round is also excellent, which only serves to make Portrush more shocking. In five of his previous 10 Open appearances he'd been inside the top 10 at the end of day one, and the opening tee-shot on Thursday comes with far less pressure and expectation.
Kim to beat Harding and Li (0646 BST)
The first name I looked for in the Open Championship draw was not Shane Lowry, nor Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm. It was Hao-tong Li, whose game is in disarray and who therefore looks a perfect candidate to be opposed wherever possible. Unfortunately, Yuxin Lin is not the price I had hoped for in the top Chinese market, and has plenty to prove himself, so we're really only left with three-balls.
Truth be told, this isn't the ideal group, because the other two are hard to split. Justin Harding holds the aces when it comes to experience and sharpness, having been a winner earlier this year in Kenya and contended as recently as a fortnight ago in Ireland. But CHAN KIM is better value at 15/8 and comes with sufficient positives of his own.
First of all, he's played well throughout limited starts all year. That includes when mid-pack in the WGC-Workday, when staying on well for a top-30 finish in the PGA Championship, and even when missing the cut in the US Open. Kim simply putted horribly on those bumpy poa annua greens of Torrey Pines, and hit the ball well enough to have made the weekend.
Both have Open form, Harding having been just behind the leaders at Portrush, Kim having an excellent 11th at Royal Birkdale. Injured for much of the intervening years, this big-hitting American has a lot of talent and soft conditions which will greet these early starters may favour him more than Harding, who played very poorly in the Scottish Open.
There's not much between these two but I am at least convinced it's a match, with Li's errant driving and months-long malaise setting him up for a high score. Kim's superior ball-striking, extra power and price combine to make him the bet, albeit to small stakes.
Posted at 0800 BST on 14/07/21
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