Jordan Spieth heads into the final round of a major championship in a familiar position: first place. He’s only 24, this is only his 23rd major, yet Spieth once again holds a share of the lead. All told, it’s the 17th time he’s done so. By any measure, he is a truly remarkable golfer and the best in the game when it comes to producing on its biggest stages.
Kevin Kisner and Xander Schauffele are up there with Spieth as America appears to continue its major dominance. Both have experience of high-pressure situations – they boast two PGA Tour wins apiece, Kisner has played the Presidents Cup and Schauffele is already building an impressive major resume. Yet they are not Spieth, and taking down their compatriot on Sunday will be a monumental task.
If there is a leveller, it’s the weather. Wind is forecast to change the dynamics at Carnoustie and while Spieth is technically best equipped to deal with it, the bottom line is that the more weather plays a part, the narrower the gap between the very best players and those in pursuit of them.
This is why Spieth is a 2/1 chance. Under Saturday’s warm and welcoming conditions, the Texan would be a strong bet at the price and still, he’s hard to resist. This time last year he was a force of nature himself, finding a way to win against all odds, and chances are he does something very similar.
Outright punters, however, should probably be a little more creative and consider Tiger Woods and Alex Noren, both four off the lead. Padraig Harrington came from six back to win here in 2007, Paul Lawrie 10 in 1999, and there is definitely a chance that the leaders paddle despite their credentials.
Woods played beautifully on Saturday and will love the forecast while Noren has become one of the most dangerous stalkers in European golf. The way he turned a potential seven into a five on the final hole of his third round offers further encouragement for pre-tournament backers and those not yet involved should consider him the best value on the leaderboard.
Two-ball punters should focus on wind specialists and avoid getting too heavily involved at short odds, and pick of the value could be Stewart Cink to beat Thomas Pieters.
Cink has fought hard to salvage his tournament after a nightmare start and he has nothing to fear from conditions which will surely bring his nous into play.
The 2009 champion has passed this sort of test many times previously and might just hold the edge against Pieters, a capable enough wind player in his own right but nonetheless one whose obvious talents are undermined a little when the going gets seriously tough.
Further down the coupon, Chris Wood may well win the battle of the former BMW PGA champions and get the better of Byeong Hun An.
Wood began his career with back-to-back Open top-fives and with his short game sharp over the last few weeks, and with a long-game made for breezy conditions, should fancy his chances of making a big move up the leaderboard.
That said, the Bristolian didn’t sound as convinced as I am when interviewed on Saturday and a preferred option for earlybird punters is Cameron Smith to beat Brendan Steele.
Smith is an Australian for whom the forecast holds no terrors and he’s fired in plenty of low Sunday numbers this season, ranking 27th to Steele’s 141st in final-round scoring on the PGA Tour.
Steele also hits the ball plenty high enough for this test, even early in the morning, and may struggle.
Fast Results
Scores
Racecards 
