The stage is set for a fantastic weekend in the Open Championship. Numbers one and two in the world are absent, but the two best major golfers are both within three; two of the best players without a major win likewise. And, for the dreamers, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson remain on the fringes, their tee-times just 10 minutes apart.
Carnoustie has produced a leaderboard not only of world-class players, but of varying styles: short-hitting Kevin Kisner and Zach Johnson lead the way, but there are big-hitters in behind. All week, we’ve seen that this is a course which provides options on virtually every shot and that while there are opportunities from first to last, mistakes tend to be harshly punished.
For my money, this is the blueprint for major golf and whoever emerges as the Champion Golfer of the Year will know they’ve conquered an elite challenge, both from the course and the opposition.
It’s not been a particularly good week for my selections so far, but the beauty of these extra places we’re treated to means the four who made the cut are still runners. Mickelson, Stewart Cink and Shaun Norris are within six of the lead, Alex Noren within five, and aren’t ruled out just yet.
At the head of revised the outright market, Tommy Fleetwood just about shades favouritism after a brilliant second round propelled the Englishman into third, one behind Johnson and Kisner.
Preference would just about be for Rory McIlroy at this stage as he continues to defy the perceived logic that links golf doesn’t really suit him, but in truth there’s no temptation to take a position at this point. Another round – at least – is needed to clarify things with all sorts of permutations in play.
It is worth taking a view on the final two-ball, though, with Johnson considered a rock-solid bet to outscore Kisner.
Johnson has been here and done it before having won the 2015 Open, and his overall record in the event is remarkably impressive. He’s clearly been taken by Carnoustie, the perfect antidote to Shinnecock where he was among the vocal dissenters, and that’s helped him move into position for what could be a third major championship.
Whether or not he quite manages that remains to be seen but Johnson has been threatening to go close all year and has coped better than anyone with Carnoustie’s fearsome closing stretch. He knows how to prepare to be last man off at a major and will relish the challenge.
Kisner’s season has been largely underwhelming and he needs to bounce back quickly from a closing double-bogey on Friday, which is no given. Although there were long-game improvements in the second round he’s relied primarily on a brilliant short-game this week and it could catch up with him.
What’s more, he’s vastly less experienced than Johnson when it comes to this sort of situation and while he’ll find comfort in the fact he’s teeing off with a friend, again it’s another little factor which gives Johnson the edge.
Other compelling betting opportunities are hard to find, although Danny Willett is tempting at 6/5 to beat Luke List. Willett’s game is clearly on the mend and under these conditions he probably ought to be clear favourite, which isn’t how every firm sees it.
Posted at 1030 BST on 21/07/18
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