The Open final-round betting tips: Preview and best bets for round four at St Andrews

Golf betting tips: The Open Championship final round

1pt Rory McIlroy-Cameron Smith dual forecast at 15/2 (Sky Bet)

2pts Min Woo Lee and Russell Henley to win their three-balls at 3/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)

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When Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson produced their version of the 'Duel in the Sun', 39 years on from the 1977 original, it felt like the right amount of time had elapsed between those two scintillating conclusions to the Open Championship. We're not there yet, but after matching rounds of 66 on Saturday, more of the same and Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland might well treat us to another just six years and five Opens further down the line.

For McIlroy, this is the best chance he's had to win a major since he teed off in the final round of the 2014 PGA Championship, the last one he won. So far, so good at the course where he first felt what it's like to lead one of these way back in 2010, before missing the 2015 renewal due to injury. If he does feel like he has a score to settle with the Old Course, he's making a bloody good fist of settling it.

Hovland, meanwhile, is learning on the job. On Saturday, he hit the front in a major championship for the first time, and come Sunday night he'll surely have secured his first top-10 finish at this level. Whereas McIlroy craves what he once had, Hovland will hope to end the day as he begins it: experiencing something new. Never before has he played in the final group of a tournament of anything like this magnitude.

What gives, who can say. Maybe nothing. All I know is that McIlroy is the right favourite, because he's a slightly better player than Hovland, and has no significant weakness. It's fair to say that Hovland's short-game issues have been hidden by a course where you can putt your way to safety but there's no guarantee that continues, and I'll be surprised and impressed if he putts anything like as well as he did in round three.

Things have in fact gone very well for the Norwegian over the last 22 holes, ever since he holed his second shot at the fearsome 15th for an eagle which kickstarted his bid on Friday night. They'll have to go very well for another 18 if he's to become the first man from his country to win a major championship, just as Stenson achieved the same feat for Sweden six years ago. It could happen, but the alternative outcome is more likely.

It will of course be argued that this is not, in fact, a duel, and that may yet be true. Cameron Smith and Cameron Young are both four shots back, Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim five, and this is a fun course to go out and play predator. Certainly, Smith and Young should be far more at ease than they were on Saturday, and the Australian is surely a good thing to hole more putts. Four back having made next to nothing, that's a reminder he could still be dangerous if getting the breaks.

I'll gladly cling to that hope for a little while longer, but I'd be lying if I was expectant, and come the back-nine I'll be roaring on Rory in the hope he can prove himself the outstanding golfer of his generation. Jack Nicklaus says if you want to leave your mark on this game you'll need to win at the Old Course. He did it, Tiger Woods did it, and Rory McIlroy can do it too.

Best bets for the final round

Hopes of a profitable week remain high, with McIlroy on-side at 4/1, and both Smith and Dustin Johnson among the places as things stand. Thriston Lawrence has a chance to pinch top South African or at least take home the place money by passing one of the three players in front of him, and after a second-round three-ball treble it should be a good if unspectacular end to a set of majors for whom that description also applies.

As far as Sunday goes I do think there's potential at least for Hovland to struggle, even if everything appeared to come so easily on Saturday. It's true that he could hardly ask for a better scenario in which to experience all this for the first time, with a good friend across the tee box and one who carries the brunt of the pressure. This is no free shot for the youngster, but it won't be his last chance and it feels so much more significant for McIlroy. And yet many players – most, in fact – need to have a go or two before they feel anything like comfortable.

Hovland of course got the better of McIlroy when coming from behind to win in Dubai but we simply don't know how he'll feel and I won't be shocked if he struggles from the off, even if I wouldn't go as far as saying I expect it. That raises the possibility of someone else emerging as the main threat to McIlroy, and 15/2 about the MCILROY-SMITH DUAL FORECAST looks more than fair in the circumstances.

• CLICK HERE to back the dual forecast with Sky Bet

A smaller bet on McIlroy and Scheffler in the same market at around 14/1 is tempting and there was no mention of what appeared to be a bit of a limp when he spoke to the media. The world number one is clearly capable of being the one to make McIlroy think if Hovland does step aside but I'll stick to Smith, who ought to bounce back from a masterclass in how not to score.

Those wanting an all-day interest have the lowest round market to ponder and perhaps it's significant that over the last two days, it's been won by one of the best putters in the world, first Smith and then Kevin Kisner. Ian Poulter isn't quite up there with them these days but it's still his main weapon and it could be worth noting that he has confessed this will be his last Open at St Andrews, which he plans to enjoy as he ignores the odd boo which has met him this week.

Poulter is 80/1 to go out on a high which would be quite like him in some ways, with Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Lucas Herbert others with the potential to light up the greens. But the one who might be straightforwardly overpriced is Sebastian Munoz, simply for the fact he's thrown in at 125/1 with golfers who are fair bit inferior to him on all known form. The Colombian is streaky on the greens, has played well in the majors this year, and could post a low one before our attention turns to the leaders.

All of this is wildly speculative however and I'll stick to something just a little more sensible, with MIN WOO LEE and RUSSELL HENLEY making up a 3/1 double on the two-balls coupon.

• CLICK HERE to add Lee to your betslip

Lee is an excellent links golfer with the power to eat alive some of these par-fours. All of his best form so far has come by the sea and though quiet on Saturday, he's at the end of a solid run of major performances this year which in time you'd expect him to build on. He finished the Masters strongly and hopefully something similar is in store.

This, though, is more about his opponent. Sahith Theegala, late into the field, is dealing with a bit of a back issue and it caught up with him in round three. Beware the injured golfer is a fun maxim but you're far better off taking them on and with nothing between Lee and Theegala under these conditions, the Aussie has to have the edge at the prices.

Henley meanwhile is in with Dylan Frittelli, who is enjoying himself in the Open again. No doubt there's a forgiving quality to the Old Course which is helping with that but he remains a hugely erratic driver capable of hitting the self-destruct button, and he's highly unlikely to have things go his way as they did in a third round which saw him hole out for eagle twice.

• CLICK HERE to add Henley to your betslip

One of those shots was going through the green and I'm happy to take him on with Henley, a slightly better player who hasn't needed to putt well to reach six-under. Frittelli has made the absolute most of his play whereas Henley probably hasn't and the classy American is far easier to trust.

Posted at 2230 BST on 16/07/22

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