Golf expert Ben Coley fancies Hideki Matsuyama to bounce back to form and win The Northern Trust, where a 300/1 chance also catches the eye.
Recommended bets
1.5pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Billy Horschel at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Danny Lee at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Now that the battle for customers is season-long, extending way beyond the four majors, The Northern Trust has a shape to it which rivals the Masters. Six, seven, even eight places, a field of just 120 players, a good number of whom can be reasonably overlooked, and most of the world's best help form a fantastic market for the punter.
Where it differs is that, unlike Augusta, Ridgewood Country Club is only an occasional host and it's now four years since Hunter Mahan, one-time staple of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, won this title with a clinical display of ball-striking which perhaps ought to have earned him a late Ryder Cup call. In turn, that came four years after Matt Kuchar got the better of Martin Laird and with many of the best players in the game having emerged subsequent to even the most recent of these form lines, just how valuable course experience is remains to be seen.
What is interesting about both events, however, is that the leaderboards were not as elite as you might expect. Mahan's big-priced success came at the chief expense of Stuart Appleby, Cameron Tringale, Jason Day, Ernie Els, William McGirt and Kuchar, while the 2010 renewal won by the last-named saw the likes of Kevin Streelman, Ryan Palmer, Rory Sabbatini and Vaughn Taylor firmly in the mix.
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Of the current crop of world-class players who quite rightly make the market, only Day brings serious course form to the table having placed in both editions and perhaps there is something about Ridgewood, an old-fashioned A.W. Tillinghast design, which has helped to make this event harder to predict than the Masters, or any other major for that matter.
It certainly strikes me as a course which is rare in that it does require driver but cannot necessarily be overpowered, and perhaps Mahan's modus operandi - i.e. hitting the ball both straighter and further than average off the tee - is the best starting point. Certainly, there have been other great drivers who've fared well here such as Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia in 2008, and while rain in the area has softened the course I still expect it to demand a certain level of accuracy.
It's that combination of less decorated players inside the top five and a course where accuracy still counts which only just removes Day from the shortlist, despite his encouraging performances from Carnoustie to Bellerive, and it's with a great degree of trepidation that I also look beyond Jordan Spieth. As regular readers will know, I'm happy to take the Texan at his word and buy into the idea that he's close, with the putter in particular backing up that suspicion at the PGA Championship where Spieth said he'd managed to make weeks' worth of progress in a very short space of time.
With another fortnight under his belt, Spieth could be ready to emulate Kuchar and Mahan in making this his first title of the year, but my hope is he again offers some promise without doing so. There's no doubt in my mind that Ridgewood isn't a perfect playground for him, especially given soft conditions and heavily poa annua greens, so I'm waiting a week before potentially giving him three more chances to turn a frustrating season around. Don't be surprised if he ends up as the FedEx Cup champion in echoes of Rory McIlroy's 2016 campaign.
One player who does look ideally suited to this course - although he's ideally suited to most courses - is Patrick Cantlay and he's awarded the vote.
Having grown up in Southern California, these greens certainly shouldn't pose any problems to the 26-year-old whose snail-like pace of play masks what's been another brilliant season, one which could yet yield a Ryder Cup call, albeit I suspect he's done himself no favours in playing so slowly.
Cantlay finished 10th in this event last year as he made it all the way to East Lake having started the year playing on a medical extension and having since won the Shriners, his first PGA Tour title, an event such as this one looks a nice stepping stone on the way to contending for major championships and earning future team appearances without the need for a wild card.
What I like about him this week, along with that expected comfort on the greens which perhaps helped another Southern Californian win here in 2014, is that Cantlay drives the ball both long and fairly straight, and throughout a consistent campaign his best performances have come courtesy of what he's done off the tee and on approach, typically on demanding, tree-lined courses.
His fourth place in the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village, a drivers' paradise, looks particularly worthwhile form but contending performances at Riviera and Firestone also qualify and having played through a light but lucrative summer, he looks primed for a Playoff run.
Cantlay is one of very few players on the circuit gaining strokes in every department and at a course where power is far from everything and where hitting greens (13th this season) looks a straightforward pointer, his all-around game looks ideal.
At a similar price, Hideki Matsuyama should be highly motivated to win for the first time in over a year and he looks to be coming to the boil just in time to do so.
Matsuyama's season has been undermined by a wrist injury he picked up back in February but that could just work in his favour over these closing four events and his tee-to-green performance in the Wyndham, where he closed 64-65 for 11th, may be the springboard required.
Matsuyama ranked seventh from tee-to-green at Sedgefield, his iron play particularly strong only to be let down by a poor putting week, and all of his past success has been built on long-game confidence.
In fact, the numbers he produced off the tee and on approach would typically guarantee a place, but he's clearly been piecing things back together, including his confidence, and it's the way he performed over the weekend which offers real encouragement in a way that four rounds of 67 would perhaps not have.
Putting issues cost him here in 2014, as he ranked second tee-to-green but finished down in 30th, however he's since shown that poa annua might not be all that much of a problem after all and his standout putting performance of 2018 came on the poa greens of Torrey Pines before that injury came about.
It's no surprise a former Muirfield Village and Firestone winner liked the look of this place and if he continues to hit the ball as he did last week, not much more will be needed on the greens to make him a factor. On that score, he was eighth in putting at Bellerive so it's not as if he's a lost cause.
Rewind a year and Matsuyama was going off close to single-figures for a major championship so the opportunity to take 50/1 at a course which should suit him nicely and on the back of his best finish of the year in a full-field event is hard to resist, especially with such generous each-way terms.
Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are obviously respected but I remain of the belief that Ridgewood is not set-up ideally for either and it's a leap of faith to back Tiger Woods at a course where hitting the ball well off the tee appears a pre-requisite, even after his outstanding effort in the PGA Championship.
There were a number of short, straight types who caught my eye at Bellerive including Kevin Na, Chez Reavie and Zach Johnson, but the soft conditions expected at Ridgewood temper enthusiasm slightly and I prefer the claims of Emiliano Grillo.
It's been another solid year for the Argentine, who ranks 19th in total driving, and given how early he made a name for himself in Europe it's easy to forget that this wonderful ball-striker is only 25, which is important to set alongside criticism that he's failed to win the titles his talent should've virtually guaranteed.
There's no doubt he's not reached the heights I and many others expected but there's time yet and this is a great chance for a player just outside the world's top 50 to make a splash in an elite field having shown just enough at Bellerive last time.
Typically, the putter has been the issue for Grillo but he's been consistently strong on the greens since the spring now and all elements of his game have fired at some stage over the last couple of months, it's just a matter of getting them together at the same time.
A course like Ridgewood, where he'll be rewarded for his accuracy and is long enough to stay in the conversation, is a nice platform for that and his form elsewhere in this event also offers encouragement, as he was second at Bethpage in 2016 and 29th at Glen Oaks last year.
With his sole PGA Tour title coming on the poa/bentgrass greens of Silverado, Grillo can take a big step forward and hit the frame at 125/1.
Billy Horschel is similarly strong off the tee - he ranks 10th total driving this year - and is worth sticking with having struck the ball brilliantly without quite justifying his selection last week.
Clearly, putting issues remain a concern but Horschel has gained in excess of 10 strokes on the field from tee-to-green twice recently, both coinciding with the sort of soft conditions under which he's thrived right back to impressing at Merion in the 2013 US Open.
A missed cut here in 2014 is concerning, especially as he famously went 2-1-1 afterwards, but one swallow doesn't make a summer and this fundamentally looks a good fit for a player who is driving the ball with supreme confidence and whose iron play is peaking.
Mahan's victory here came after he'd led the field in greens hit twice in succession and Horschel, who has been sixth, fourth, seventh and second in that department recently with the one aberration coming in Canada, is coming to the boil in similar fashion.
We know he can win Playoff events having bagged two of them on his way to FedEx Cup glory four years ago and the way he's hitting it right now, I expect him to arrive here in confident mood and contend if putting reasonably well.
4 rounds in the 60's this week at the @WyndhamChamp. I'm feeling great heading into the #FedExCup Playoffs. Up next...@thentgolf! pic.twitter.com/vTuZDJaCBF
— Billy Horschel (@BillyHo_Golf) August 20, 2018
Finally, while Tommy Fleetwood is expected to go well and Matt Kuchar is tempting on the strength of his course form alone, I like the look of 300/1 chance Danny Lee.
The New Zealander was a solid 38th here in 2014 but it's his recent form which really catches the eye, as he's put together a run of 21-6-24 courtesy of 12 consecutive sub-70 rounds.
Granted, this is a step up in grade for a player who didn't quality for the PGA Championship or the Bridgestone, but his best performance of the season was seventh place in the PLAYERS and I'm hopeful he can produce something similar in another high-class field.
Lee is driving the ball well now, with third place for total driving last week a real step in the right direction, and with his short-game never having been an issue there's plenty to like.
Throw in the fact that he's 103rd in FedEx Cup points and therefore needs a solid week to make the next event on the schedule, and he's worth chancing to add his name to the long list of surprise contenders at this course.
Posted at 1100 BST on 21/08/18.
