Ben Coley assesses the situation ahead of what promises to be a thrilling final round at Augusta National.
Recommended bets:
Great golf courses and great fields almost always deliver, and that was the case on a thrilling third day at Augusta National.
First, Rory McIlroy started like a train; as his challenge stuttered, Jordan Spieth began to light up the Masters, showing the kind of mental resolve which will one day help explain one of the great careers in professional sport.
All the while, Sergio Garcia and Charley Hoffman were making a clear, visible attempt to simplify the afternoon, jovially making their way from hole to hole and showing tenacity which some may not have expected from either man.
Hoffman finally made a crucial blunder at the 16th, finding water, but even then managed to steady the ship with two pars to end the day two off a lead jointly held by Garcia and his friend and Ryder Cup team-mate, Justin Rose.
The Englishman came alive on the back-nine, his inward 31 seeing him earn a place in the final two-ball and at the top of the market, both thoroughly deserved.
With an Olympic gold medal and US Open title in the locker, Rose has achieved enough in the sport to retire happy and to some extent that makes today easier for him than it does Garcia, who has played 71 consecutive majors, 74 in all, and still seeks his first success.
Perhaps easier is the wrong way to put it - Rose will still feel nervous, expectant, under pressure. Perhaps more qualified is a better expression. Four years ago, he was solid as a rock at Merion on Sunday and a repeat performance would make him extremely difficult to beat.
From a purely financial perspective, I'm pleased to see Rickie Fowler just one behind because he did not have his game yesterday, except for the putting part. He'll likely need to sharpen up the ball-striking to win but from one shot back is a clear danger to the front two.
So is Spieth, bidding to become the first man in history to win the Masters with more than a double-bogey on the scorecard. He's two adrift, a shot more than Fowler, but will relish playing the stalking role. And Spieth hasn't putted all that well to get to this position, so watch out if the wand starts working.
This quartet make up the front of the market, little more than a point separating them, and it's difficult to disagree strongly with the order.
However, I am willing to back up my belief in the small factors which can make so much difference in this sport, and add a small bet on Garcia to the staking plan.
I'm not sure you'll find many paid to preview golf who will agree with this one, and the numbers would have Garcia's name first off the list.
Clearly, he's spent a long time trying to win one of these and, in the harshest terms, a long time failing. But today he has a number of small factors in his favour which lead me to believe that not only could this be his day, but that 5/1 is on the generous side.
Firstly, and most straightforwardly, he's arguably playing the best golf of anyone in the field. Garcia is certainly the only player to have broken par every day, he leads the field in bogey avoidance, and as well as being first in ball-striking he's fourth in scrambling.
Secondly, he's playing with a good friend in Rose. I'm not going to tell you that they'll be laughing and joking on the 16th tee, but it's a massive plus that Garcia avoided a two-ball with Spieth in particular.
Rewind to Adam Scott's Masters win, and maybe playing with compatriot Marc Leishman helped him. When Rose himself captured that first major title, he played with compatriot and Ryder Cup team-make Luke Donald in the final round.
Just last year, Willett surely found greater comfort with his friend Lee Westwood than had he been standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Spieth on the first tee.
It's a small factor, but those are the ones which can separate a bunch of elite golfers and they've been in Garcia's favour all week.
At a course he's always endured a love-hate relationship with, I'm sure the windy conditions of days one and two made a difference to him, changing the dynamics of Augusta National and certainly in favour of one of the field's best ball-strikers.
Something I've mentioned already is the significance of April 9. Today would've been Seve's 60th birthday, and as Garcia grew up idolising the two-time Masters winner, it makes this all the more special.
I don't see that it adds pressure, but it could certainly inspire Sergio. There are countless examples of golfers who find a level of perspective on the course due to similar factors.
Again, Rose helps underline this point. At Merion four years ago, it was father's day. Rose's dad, Ken, died well before his time, early in Rose's career having been crucial in helping build it. There can be little doubt that Rose's calmness that day owed at least something to his greater sense of perspective than, say, Phil Mickelson, for whom victory in the US Open means everything.
And then there's the fact that Sergio has started taking his chances in the mix. Last year at the Byron Nelson he stepped up late on to beat Brooks Koepka but much more compelling was the way in which he saw off Henrik Stenson to win the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year.
Stepping onto the 15th tee, Garcia's lead was down to one and he hit one of the shots of his life to tap-in range, his final birdie in a bogey-free round which ruthlessly shut the door on an opponent whose record and comfort levels at that course were far superior.
Stenson is another who helps display a previous point - a very close friend of his passed away on the eve of the Open last summer, and he won his first major just five days later, aged 40.
It's performances like that which tell me never to write off anyone - not even Westwood, five off the pace here.
And, having received a message from Jose Maria Olazabal on the eve of the tournament this week, telling him to go out there and do it for Seve, it really isn't sentimentality which makes me believe today could finally be his day.
Should Garcia fail, I'd encourage you to applaud how impressive it is that he keeps getting back up and trying again. This is a player who hasn't missed a major championship this century. He's tougher than you think. I hope he shows it today.
Posted at 1215 BST on 09/04/17
