Ben Coley's Masters betting preview and tips

Recommended bets: The Masters

2pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 22/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Bill Haas at 100/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 55/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

3pts win Rory McIlroy at 8/1

Dustin Johnson's dominant spring will ensure that he begins the 81st Masters Tournament as a strong favourite at around the 6/1 mark, as he seeks to win his fourth event in succession and second major championship.

Gone are the days that Johnson's mindset was a concern for some and along with dramatic improvement from inside 150 yards, his is now one of the most complete games in golf. In fact, it's one of the most complete games in golf history.

For some, winning four in a row would in itself be too big a challenge, but Johnson walks and talks like nothing bothers him and the way he's responded to setbacks which would've ended the careers of lesser men underlines how unflappable he is.

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In other words, his credentials are hard to fault but I can't see that he offers great value, having been winning less significant events at bigger prices. This isn't to say that the odds are in any way incorrect, more that the ship has sailed and I would have a slight concern that he does what Jason Day did having arrived in similar form last year and finishes just outside the frame.

Augusta National is a classical, timeless par 72 which has shown itself to suit all kinds of players and all kinds of play. Indeed, while Jordan Spieth is best known for his short-game, he led the field in greens hit here when second on debut and switched those two figures a year later, winning the tournament having been second in greens, whereas he was second last year thanks largely to some of the most remarkable scrambling and shot-shaping you're ever likely to see.

Ultimately, it was Spieth's failure to hit one green in particular which cost him the title but the Texan is made of incredibly strong stuff and it shouldn't surprise anyone were he to bounce back at a course which is so obviously suited to him.

At a bigger price than Johnson and seemingly set to drift further, he's probably better value - but extending his Masters record to 2-1-2-1 would be a remarkable achievement and his preparation has been less than ideal.

Traditionally, while the formula varies here it has been very important to limit mistakes - that means avoiding doubles when, inevitably, shots do go astray - and take advantage of the par-fives, which rank as the four easiest holes on this famous course.

Danny Willett managed to win despite failing to achieve the latter last year, but Spieth played them far better than anyone else in the field and, clearly, was in control of the event from early on Thursday until that famous moment late on Sunday. Playing the par-fives well remains vitally important.

My advice when assessing trends would be to treat them with caution. For instance, that the top-ranked player in world golf hasn't won here in 15 years is of absolutely no significance to the chances of Johnson; it would be no more relevant to say that nobody named 'Dustin' has previously won a Green Jacket.

Some, however, are worth noting. For example, Masters champions tend to have shown something approaching their best earlier in the season and that makes sense: this unforgiving golf course is no place to go searching for form. Most, including the surprise ones, had either won or gone very close to winning in the build-up, many in late March or the first week of April.

Experience is beneficial - even if experience may never have been less significant in this sport - and only the very best debutants can get anywhere close to the top of the leaderboard, as Spieth did four years ago. Jon Rahm is good enough to prove himself among the very best debutants, although whether 25/1 offers any kind of value remains questionable.

But for all the historical pointers, one of the most relevant factors in 2017 may be the weather forecast. There's talk of a complete washout at Augusta on Monday, which will deny those debutants one day's practice but, more importantly, could seriously push this event into the hands of the bigger hitters.

That isn't to rule out those who don't bomb it - we've seen through Zach Johnson, through Spieth, even through Willett that being among the game's power club isn't a necessity - but part of Spieth's advantage here has been his comfort levels controlling the ball where others cannot. The softer the course gets, the more that advantage diminishes.

What's more, since Augusta was 'Tiger-proofed', bombers have always been at an even greater advantage, from the flow of the course to the cut of the grass, which is famously angled in such a way as to to limit run-out. In other words, balls stop sooner than they might elsewhere, which again favours the longer hitters.

Having made clear that neither DJ nor Spieth make quite enough appeal at the odds, it really didn't take me long to settle on the strongest selection here.

Rickie Fowler is a top-25 driver in distance terms and his career is on a path which suggests that major glory is very close now, so he gets a confident headline vote.

Now 28, Fowler has seven wins worldwide, from the US to Korea, stopping in Scotland and Abu Dhabi inbetween.

Korea aside - while Rory McIlroy was second, this was ultimately a weak OneAsia Tour event - Fowler's wins prior to this year had all been via a play-off or a single stroke, a fact which demonstrates that he's well above average when it comes to getting the job done even if his early years were undermined by some troubling Sundays.

More recently, he demonstrated a different quality in producing Saturday fireworks to open up a four-shot lead in the Honda Classic, before defying a difficult start to the final round as he ultimately won by the same margin in an important, confidence-boosting win, almost exactly a year since he lost a play-off for the Phoenix Open having appeared to be similarly in control.

While far from being one of the most prestigious events on the calendar, Phoenix was very important to Fowler and defeat to Hideki Matsuyama in front of his friends and family hit him hard. In fact, I strongly suspect it had a lasting impact, enough to in part explain some of his disappointing performances in majors last year.

One of them came here, where he opened with a round of 80 and missed the cut despite a second-round fightback, and for some that's enough to remove him from calculations. One of the supposedly key Masters trends down the years has been the requirement to have made the weekend on your latest visit.

However, they used to say you needed six or seven looks at Augusta National before winning, until Charl Schwartzel, Spieth and Willett showed otherwise, and as mentioned, most trends should be used as a guide only. I can find no logical reason why Fowler will find his chance undermined by what happened 12 months ago.

Given that he had previously shown a strong and immediate affinity with the course, making the cut in each of his first five visits including when fifth in 2014 and 12th in 2015, a blip can be easily ignored and I would be somewhat surprised if he's not in the mix for this title come Sunday.

Why? Because few players have been more impressive throughout this year. Fowler has performed close to or at his best since missing the cut at Torrey Pines, days after he'd flown in from a tiring title defence in Abu Dhabi, and several of his stats suggest the discovery of career-best form at just the right time.

Fowler's short-game is especially strong at the moment - he's third in the PGA Tour's scrambling stats and is 28th in strokes-gained around the green - and he's putting with the same confidence he demonstrated when finishing inside the top-five at every major championship in 2014.

Putting was certainly an issue last year - Fowler dipped from a top-35 putter to a mid-level one - and given that he's driving it well, flushing his irons and generally avoiding the sort of mistakes which used to ruin at least one of his four cards (fourth in bogey avoidance, a strength which was once a weakness), everything is in place for a breakthrough week at Augusta.

Most of this, of course, is obvious. Anyone who watches the PGA Tour on a weekly basis will be aware that Fowler is playing well. But as he remains without a major, and with DJ, Spieth and McIlroy forming such a strong trinity at the top of the market, we're still able to take upwards of 20/1 about a player who simply looks ready for the next step.

Following what might prove an ideal prep in Houston, where in rain-softened conditions he was in electric form for much of the week and finished with a flourish, Fowler looks the best bet at the Masters.

While genuine shocks are fairly rare at Augusta, increasingly so of late, the top-heavy nature of the market means that there are some candidates at 100/1 and upwards who appear to have a chance to contend.

The pick of them is Bill Haas, and while his overall play in majors is a nagging concern in that he's been consistently on the fringes but never in the mix, at three-figure prices there's a pretty compelling case to be made for him.

For starters, Haas is in great form. His third-placed finish in the Match Play was a fine effort and came on the back of several others; it's no surprise that he's up with Fowler in the bogey avoidance (second) and scrambling (first) stats which should mean he can tackle Augusta's biggest challenge with confidence.

It's something he's done before and in old money, Haas, aged 34 and making his eighth start in the Masters, would look an ideal type in a major where experience has always been considered a positive.

So dramatic and so swift has been golf's shift to the younger model over the last decade that these stereotypes are losing their significance, but in Haas's case there can be no doubt that having played well on each and every visit to Augusta is a big positive and it was just last July that he secured his best major finish, a share of ninth at Troon.

It's particularly encouraging to see how well he's hit the ball here at Augusta National over the years and since finishing 20th despite playing the par-fives abysmally in 2013, he's stepped it up and peaked with eight-under across holes two, eight, 13 and 15 in 2016. That was better than all of last year's top-five bar Spieth.

Taking advantage of the four easiest holes at Augusta is, as mentioned, really important and while par-five performance has long been something of an issue for Haas, there's evidence to suggest he's getting to grips with this particular set.

Finally, for one at such a price and without a major in the bag, Haas does have a heck of a lot of top-level form including his 2011 FedEx Cup success, which came here in Georgia, and three Presidents Cup appearances which he's desperate to add to with a fourth at Liberty National later this year.

He's also won at Riviera and Congressional, two classical layouts with more than a passing resemblance to Augusta and form ties too, and I'm increasingly sweet on the idea that Haas could follow his great-uncle Bob Goalby and win the Masters.

JB Holmes has a relatively similar profile to Haas, in that he's got a bank of experience and has won in good company on a classical layout at Quail Hollow, while last year he mixed two missed cuts with two top-five finishes in majors, one of which came here as he shared fourth despite playing the par-fives badly.

This big-hitter has beaten Augusta behemoths Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth in play-offs before so there's an element of class to his profile which few at his price can boast, while some of his play this year has been better than the end result.

However, he's fallen off my shortlist on the back of a disappointing fortnight and I've also talked myself out of reigning PGA champion Jimmy Walker, who has been eighth here in the past and wouldn't be without a chance if able to eliminate the mistakes as he somehow did under intense final-round pressure at Baltusrol.

On balance, the credentials of Marc Leishman are a good deal more compelling and he remains on offer at a very fair 70/1, or an even better 66/1 with eight places.

The Australian might not be a household name, but he's a former PGA Tour rookie of the year, who now has three high-profile wins worldwide, including an impressive one in the Nedbank Challenge and another at Bay Hill last month.

The latter was particularly noteworthy in that Leishman at last grabbed an opportunity with both hands, making clutch par saves on the final two holes to win by one in an important, poignant renewal of a high-profile event, securing a win which had in truth been long overdue.

All of which sets him up for another big major run, and that's something Leishman is very familiar with. He's only played in 21 of them, but on three occasions has finished inside the top-five, most notably when part of a three-way play-off for the Open Championship which ultimately went to Zach Johnson in 2015.

Conditions were soft that week, as they were when he placed behind Rory McIlroy in the same event a year earlier, and when fourth here in 2013, when playing alongside compatriot and eventual champion Adam Scott on Sunday, an experience which must surely serve him well.

In other words, Leishman's standout major performances both underline his class and demonstrate that the expected conditions at Augusta this week should suit him nicely.

Granted, his other efforts at the Masters are rather less impressive - he's missed three cuts from three bar that share of fourth - but there have been flashes of promise, such as when fifth after the first round in 2014, and he's never before arrived having won earlier that season.

We've seen throughout the history of all major championships that one of the key pointers is a reasonably recent win and this one has plenty of substance.

The confidence generated by a victory can be a massive factor, one which helped the more surprising recent Masters champions like Willett, Schwartzel and Bubba Watson. It also pointed to the likes of Keegan Bradley in the 2011 PGA and Darren Clarke in the same year's Open, so recent winners are worth a close look.

Leishman's win wasn't out of the blue, either. He'd been in position to challenge in all bar one of his previous starts in 2017 only to struggle on Sunday, but now the pieces have finally fallen into place he's much more likely to stick around if another chance does present itself.

A look at Leishman's stats further confirms that there was no fluke about that Bay Hill win. For a player who ranked outside the top 100 in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015, it's remarkable that he's now third on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained putting and this confidence with the flat-stick is filtering through his game, with the driver another major weapon.

Leishman also figures highly in bogey avoidance (eighth), he's a top-25 par-five performer who figures in the 'sneaky long' category, and he's quite simply on top of the world right now especially as, after a life-threatening illness, wife Audrey is almost back to full health and the couple are expecting their third child.

It's easy to see them enjoying a relaxed preparation, including the par-three tournament, and from there Leishman can launch another major challenge in an event he skipped to be by Audrey's side two years ago. His would be an emotional and deserved success.

At a similar price, Louis Oosthuizen undoubtedly has the class to become a two-time major champion.

Winner of the Open Championship in 2010, the South African has subsequently backed up what was a shock victory with a trio of second-placed major finishes, including when losing a play-off to Watson here in 2012 and to Zach Johnson at St Andrews.

His Masters play-off defeat came on the back of three missed cuts at Augusta and he went on to miss another in 2013, but since then Oosthuizen's form figures of 25-T19-T15 show encouraging progression and confirm that his near-miss was no flash-in-the-pan.

Unlike Leishman and Fowler, he doesn't have a recent victory to call upon but Oosthuizen is a relaxed character who will recognise that third in Phoenix, fifth in Perth and a run of solid performances elsewhere, including at the Match Play, represents a perfectly solid preparation for the season's first major.

Last year he drove the ball wonderfully well here, ranking ninth in distance and third in accuracy, and it's now three visits in four that he's found upwards of 65 percent of greens, twice leading the entire field in ball-striking, twice in total driving, and once in the all-around.

In other words, he's played really well year-in, year-out without quite getting his name in the mix for a variety of reasons, including when making an eight at the easiest hole on the course in 2014 which quickly did for his chances.

In 2016, Oosthuizen finished 15th despite having gone the distance at the Match Play and then shooting 73-77 to miss the cut in Houston. Twelve months on, he should benefit from having skipped the latter and losing a group-stage play-off at the Match Play means he can draw confidence from two wins without having had to risk his fragile limbs with as many as seven rounds of golf.

Bar compatriot Schwartzel, who hasn't done what Louis has and placed at a host of majors since he won one, Oosthuizen is surrounded in the market by players seeking their first. His experience and proven class entitle him to be a little shorter and his suitability to Augusta National makes him a potentially massive factor.

Finally, with doubts around the preparation of Spieth, not to mention the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day, Rory McIlroy is worth having on-side as he looks to complete the career slam.

Every drop of rain that falls at Augusta will favour McIlroy, who remains the best in the world at taking apart a soft golf course, and his enforced freshness following an early-season injury could just prove a blessing in disguise.

While Johnson deserves every word of praise he's received and Spieth is a truly all-time great in the making with one of the strongest minds in golf, it's worth pointing out that at present those two combined trail McIlroy by three majors to four.

Johnson would have to win one per year until he's 35 to match the figure Rory reached at 25 and while different players progress at different rates, the point is that it's easy to forget what McIlroy has achieved given that he's surprisingly gone nearly three years without finding his fifth major.

It'll come, there's no doubt in my mind about that, and the pieces might just be falling into place at Augusta, where he's worked his way back to a level of comfort following an infamous Sunday round of 80 back in 2011.

Last year he found fast, tricky conditions on Saturday too much to deal with alongside Spieth but he'd finished 68-66 for fourth in 2015 and 71-69 for eighth in 2014.

I believe that McIlroy therefore needs just to get off to a better start - only in 2011 has he bettered 70 on day one - to be the man to beat from a very early stage, and the forecast conditions hand him an excellent chance to do so.

As you'd perhaps expect, he's leading the PGA Tour's tee-to-green charts as well as in par-five birdie or better percentage and scoring average, and while some would say he isn't putting well enough to win here, we saw in 2013 with Scott's win how different things can be when the greens are soaked, even with one of the best sub-air systems in the land.

And while there will always be focus on McIlroy, talk of the career slam has been quiet compared to the focus on Spieth and what happened last year, Johnson's incredible run of form, even the latest 'will he, won't he' saga in the career of Tiger Woods.

Come Sunday, that could all change as McIlroy writes his name into the history books. Unless he has to make do with a gallant second place to Fowler, of course.

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Blog info and Sky Bet specials

I am pleased to say that I'll be blogging live via sportinglife.com throughout all four days of the Masters. It'll be a bit of fun, hopefully, and we'll keep a very close eye on not only these outright selections, but three-ball tips and so on.

The plan is to kick things off at 1400 BST on Thursday and I hope you'll be there to join me. Emails will be welcome throughout.

Finally, Sky Bet are continuing to offer a number of specials relating to our selections. This week's include any of the above five to win at 9/2, all of them to finish inside the top-20 at 45/1 and any three to hit the top-10 at 11/1.

Click here for all Sky Bet's specials.

Posted at 1200 BST on 03/04/17.