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The Masters three-balls and first-round leader: Thursday round one preview and best golf bets
In his final pre-tournament preview ahead of the Masters, Ben Coley has two selections in the first-round leader market, and a 16/1 three-ball treble.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round one
1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson to lead after the first round at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Cameron Young to lead after the first round at 45/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts Cam Davis to beat Denny McCarthy and Camilo Villegas at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Shane Lowry to beat Akshay Bhatia and JT Poston at 13/10 (General)
1pt Dustin Johnson to beat Tommy Fleetwood and Collin Morikawa at 9/5 (General)
0.5pt treble Davis, Lowry and Johnson to win their three-balls at 16/1 (General)
Update: First round delayed
The first round of the Masters will begin later than scheduled due to bad weather. Tee-times referenced below are subject to a delay of 2hr30m. The first round will not conclude until Friday.
First-round leader
A glorious Augusta weekend awaits, but Thursday's forecast suggests that patience, a Masters essential, will be required before we get to the business end of the tournament.
Thunderstorms and rain in the morning could result in those drawn early facing difficult conditions. They could also result in a pause which works in their favour, given that wind is the one constant. Significant delays might see those early-late players finish their second rounds on Saturday, a scenario which unfolded last year. This time it would probably be advantageous.
Speculation, that pre-Masters essential, is all we can manage at this stage and we can't be sure who, if anyone, will benefit when all is said and done. But what I will say is this: late is typically best when it comes to finding the first-round leader, and if we escape thunder and lightning, they might tee off just as the morning wave trudge into the clubhouse having battled Augusta at its longest and most brutal.
There are all kinds of ways this famous course can bite a player, but cold, wet weather is surely the hardest to handle. We saw that during Friday's play a year ago and while it'll be warmer this time, Thursday morning is the one time I wouldn't want my players to be out on the course based on the information to hand at the time of writing this preview. Delay or no delay, the later starters shouldn't have to battle heavy rain.
Had the opposite been true, I'd have drawn stumps when it comes to trying to find the leader. But from the very last group on the tee, DUSTIN JOHNSON is worth a go at 40/1.
Johnson has four day one top-fives in the Masters including the lead in 2020. Three of those top-fives have come in his last five appearances and, unsurprisingly, his best round-by-round scoring average comes in the first.
He's become a bit of a habitual fast-starter since joining LIV Golf, too. Whether or not that's a reflection of the urgency demanded by a shorter format I don't know, but he was placed in last year's equivalent US PGA market, has gone 7-3 in two US Opens, and was fifth in the Open at St Andrews.
All told he has five first-round leads in fewer than 60 major appearances and places around a fifth of the time, so he's been a rock-solid conveyance down the years. And while I'm slightly dubious as to whether he can connect four rounds given that he's typically thrown in at least one bad one in majors since winning here, another bright first round is all we need.
Jordan Spieth led after day one in three of his first five Masters appearances and is playing in the penultimate group, from where the latest of those leads came.
Generally, betting on things to just keep on happening isn't a very good idea, but Augusta is the best course in the game at which to do it. Course form here counts more than anywhere and when you combine that with a preferred tee-time and 10th place last week, Spieth makes a lot of sense at a very reasonable 30/1.
Justin Rose has led this tournament four times and placed on several more occasions. It's certainly not going to surprise anybody if Spieth matches that number and I won't talk anyone out of doubling down on one of my outright selections.
Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay would've made some appeal but for morning tee-times, the latter in particular flying out of the gates regularly this season for all that he too has failed to do it for 72 holes.
If you're wondering at this point why I'm discussing only the star names in the single most volatile market there is, ignoring the significantly easier 2020 renewal played in November, you'll do well to spot a surprise one among Masters pace-setters.
Charley Hoffman, world number 52 at the time, would be the closest thing but he was well-backed given his Augusta record, and Marc Leishman in 2013 is probably the only one of the last 15 or so who wouldn't have made much sense at all. He was outside the top 100 and yet to show any kind of Masters form.
More recently, names like Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Sungjae Im and Rose preceded the Viktor Hovland-Jon Rahm-Brooks Koepka share last year. All had previous Augusta form and no shortage of class.
For that reason, I'll make it two late plays with stakes split between Johnson and habitual major contender, CAMERON YOUNG.
He carded an opening 67 to lie fourth last year and returns in better shape generally, having been close to winning last time, as he was in Dubai, where he led after round one before succumbing to Rory McIlroy in the end.
Subsequently having led after the first round of the Open, Young's record in majors is already exceptional and if he putts well this week, he'll be thereabouts. Over 18 holes I'm more willing to chance that club, without having to worry about the fact he's not yet a PGA Tour winner.
With his ability to bully the par-fives equal to just about anyone here, Young, a general 45/1 shot, can get amongst it early.
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First-round three-balls
Davis to beat McCarthy and Villegas (1618 BST)
The forecast does temper enthusiasm in the three-ball coupon somewhat. It's not just that morning rain and the potential for a thunderstorm, but the strong wind that is set to colour the first two days of this tournament. Some very good players are going to be blown off course.
I'd still like to take on Danny Willett on his return from several months away, but he's in with two recent winners who hit the ball well enough to be considered live outsiders. Willett looks too short, but I can't find a good way to split Austin Eckroat and Stephan Jaeger at the odds.
Instead then the first bet comes later in the day with CAM DAVIS taken to beat Denny McCarthy and Camilo Villegas.
The latter has a miserable Augusta record and is one of those who is a bit fortunate in some ways to be in the field, having won a decidedly low-key event before Christmas. It was fantastic, an almighty achievement, but Villegas is expected to struggle badly on his long-awaited return to the Masters.
McCarthy is making his debut, days after his stunning back-nine almost earned him a stunning breakthrough in Texas. How he'll respond to losing a play-off I don't know, but chunking a wedge after all that hard work, when you're a longstanding maiden who lost a play-off last summer, too, makes it very difficult.
He's also a shortish hitter who relies on his putter and while he's more solid than Davis, the Australian has a higher ceiling. He's placed in a major less than a year ago and he's also played in the Masters before, which rates a definite advantage at a course where experience really does count.
Davis is also playing well at the moment, Sawgrass aside, and is excellent value at 2/1 in what should effectively prove to be a two-ball for betting purposes.
Lowry to beat Bhatia and Poston (1724 BST)
Akshay Bhatia benefited from McCarthy's late mistake in Texas to earn the final Masters invite. He's an enormous talent in excellent form, but he's also a debutant and he was receiving treatment late in that tournament for a nagging injury.
Some have ridden the crest of a wave to perform well at Augusta having won just days before and Bhatia has the talent to do so. Still, last week surely took a lot out of him, and he went MC-MC following his first victory last summer.
With JT Poston yet to break 70 in six rounds and having suffered a dip in form which includes a Sunday 78 last time out, SHANE LOWRY looks a bet at odds-against.
He boasts one of the very best recent Augusta records in this field, he's playing well, and he's shot 72 or better in every single first round since he shot 73 on day one of last May's US PGA. Something like that might do the trick.
Johnson to beat Fleetwood and Morikawa (1900 BST)
Finally, the aforementioned JOHNSON has to be a bet at the prices. I'm not in a rush to oppose Tommy Fleetwood, one of the most consistent major performers in the game, but Johnson is a Masters champion and ought to be favourite for my money.
With Collin Morikawa looking badly out of sorts, the opportunity to back Johnson at almost 2/1 for what isn't the strongest three-ball you'll see must be taken. As argued above, he's a regular day-one feature here, and in majors in general, and there have been some good signs including a win on the LIV Golf circuit this year.
Posted at 0745 BST on 10/04/24
The Masters: More Sporting Life content
- Masters statistics and in-play betting guide
- Player-by-player guide to the entire field
- Augusta National: Hole-by-hole course guide
- The Masters: Five must-see moments
- Tiger Woods: Magic Masters moments
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