Golf betting tips: The Masters, round three
3pts Paul Casey to beat Ian Poulter at 10/11 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt Hideki Matsuyama to beat Xander Schauffele at 7/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Jim Herman to beat Joaquin Niemann at 9/4 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
Apparently, Patrick Reed calls Will Zalatoris 'Showtime', because 'he could either play golf or be in Hollywood'. It's probably for the best that we don't ask what other professionals call Reed and for what possible reason. Anyway, showtime for Zalatoris on Saturday will come shortly after 2pm, when he tees off in the final group of the Masters for what's sure to be a dramatic and engrossing third round.
Based on what we've come to learn about this pointed 24-year-old, his game is an ideal fit for Augusta National. He hits the ball absurdly high, often with a draw for whatever that is worth, and his iron play is exceptionally precise. Despite not taking advantage of the par-five 13th or indeed the 15th, he came home in 31 strokes, and there are only three players ahead of him in the outright betting.
That all sounds relatively simple, but were Zalatoris to win it would be among the most extraordinary Masters stories I can remember. It's not that he's short of the required talent, not even that he lacks major experience — he was sixth in last year's US Open, albeit never nearer. The thing with Zalatoris is that unlike the last debutant winner here, Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, he hasn't even won on the PGA Tour yet. To win your first top-level event here, at Augusta National, is bordering on the absurd.
On the leaderboard, there is only one player ahead of him: Justin Rose. Rose showed real heart and no little class to rally from three-over for the round to shoot level par, enough to hang onto the lead on a day he knew could've gone much worse. Now we have a final group made up of a former world number one and US Open champion, and one of the most talented youngsters in the sport. Again, that seems fairly straightforward and not unexpected. Yet with Rose having arrived under a cloud and with history against Zalatoris, most will assume the winner is currently on their heels.
Spieth looks the man to beat
Whether your measure is course expertise or simply total majors won the most qualified player on the leaderboard is Jordan Spieth, who added a second-round 68 to his opening 71 and is now within two shots. The triple-bogey he ran up on the ninth hole on Friday remains his only significant misstep, and the 2016 winner has hardened to 4/1. Despite sounding less than bullish in his post-round interview, Spieth looks firmly the man to beat at this stage and it's tempting to add him to the book at that price as he seeks to repeat 2017, when he won a PGA Tour event and then doubled up on his next start, in a major.
Beyond him, Justin Thomas stands out and we would've been treated to a fearsome two-ball made up of these two childhood friends had Thomas not clumsily three-putted the last. Otherwise, he was near faultless: the shots he hit into 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 were another demonstration of the approach play which has made him one of the most prolific champions on the PGA Tour. Should that approach play continue to fire, with the driver seemingly warming up, it's only on the greens that minimal improvement is needed for a serious chance on Sunday.
Overconfidence is not wise at Augusta National, but backers of Thomas have to believe he is extremely likely to be in the shake-up, and with Si Woo Kim alongside him on four-under, suddenly our outright selections are in a decent position. Should neither win, we'll need both to place to end the week in front, but I remain very hopeful Thomas can go on and win at a course which is ideal for his game, and we do have 11 places to go at with the talented and explosive Kim.
I suspect much will depend on set-up. If Augusta plays as it did on Thursday, that is to say if the greens are like airport runways, I worry a little that Thomas will not be sufficiently rewarded for his approach play and that his putting will be costly. But if Augusta plays more as it did on Friday, when the greens were that bit more receptive, he might be the man to beat. Without knowing — I suspect we may get something between the two, but the drops of rain in the forecast could also play some part — I am inclined to stick, rather than twist and add Spieth at a very fair price.
Of the other contenders, Brian Harman must be respected but I am more concerned by Marc Leishman, who is classy, loves it here, and is better used to contending for majors. He sounded positive after a second-round 67 which saw him eliminate many of Thursday's mistakes, and I don't think he'll go far. That said there are lurkers everywhere — Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Corey Conners, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm — and a place in the front five will be hard earned.
What are the best two-ball bets?
For the best two-ball bet it should pay to focus on the very first match, in which PAUL CASEY can account for Ian Poulter and make odds of 10/11 (bet365, William Hill) look really generous (1440 BST).
While Casey has disappointed following an excellent start — he was three-under on Thursday, but starts Saturday's third round on three-over — he was never really in danger of missing the cut and is among the early starters who looks most capable of shooting the 65 he'll need to have a realistic chance to sneak into the top 10.
Having been a popular 33/1 shot on the eve of the tournament that's not what he was looking for coming in, but the Englishman is expected to kick on today. When last he scraped through to the weekend here he shot 69-65 to finish 15th, a year after he'd gone 69-68 for sixth place, and his superior long-game can prove the difference under calm morning conditions.
Nobody who made the cut did so hitting as few greens as Poulter — just 16 out of 36 so far — and he was clinging on grimly, saving par from 20 feet at the 15th and 11 feet at the 14th after he'd been placed under pressure by a double at the 12th. Unless he sharpens up significantly from tee-to-green, it's difficult to see him climbing far up the leaderboard over the weekend.
Given their outright prices coming into the event, and the way they've gone about things so far, Casey is entitled to be a good deal shorter.
It's tempting to take upwards of 2/1 about JIM HERMAN beating Joaquin Niemann in their low-key two-ball and we'll do so to small stakes as the speculative play of the day (1530).
Niemann is obviously the superior player but Herman, a three-time PGA Tour winner, is no mug, and he hit 16 greens in Friday's second round to make the cut. Having ranked highly in the same category last time at the Honda Classic, he can compete with the young Chilean, who is prone to making a couple of sixes here even if he racks up the birdies, too.
Finally, HIDEKI MATSUYAMA's level of comfort here is such that I'm not sure he should be 11/8 against Xander Schauffele in what is best viewed as a toss-up (1830).
Both have been slightly below their best lately and are among those brought to life by Augusta National, sitting inside the top five in greens hit and now among that dangerous chasing pack. It would not be a surprise were either of them to burst through and earn a place in one of the final couple of groups ahead of tomorrow's final round.
But Matsuyama has a lot more experience at the course, and the driving errors which cost him in Texas last week are both less apparent, and less harshly punished at a course which is fairly forgiving off the tee. At his best, he's a superior iron player to Schauffele and he's sharp when missing greens, all of which helps explain why he's got such a strong record here.
I don't think there's anything between them so if you can get 5/4 or bigger about the Japanese, it's a value bet to small stakes.
Posted at 0800 BST on 10/04/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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