Sahith Theegala can prove the pick of the debutants in the Masters according to Ben Coley, who has a selection of bets from the sub-markets.
Golf betting tips: The Masters specials
2pts Sahith Theegala to be the top debutant at 11/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Sepp Straka to be the top continental European at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pt McIlroy-Finau dual forecast at 150/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt McIlroy-Thomas straight forecast at 200/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Thomas-McIlroy straight forecast at 225/1 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
REQUEST-A-BET: McIlroy T10, Fleetwood T20, Theegala top debutant (all including ties) at 18/1
Top debutant
I've felt for a while that SAHITH THEEGALA might be an ideal Masters candidate, and for now there's no better way to test that theory than by backing him in the top debutant market.
Theegala gained a bit of a cult following thanks to an excellent rookie season which really should've seen him win either in Phoenix or at the Travelers. The more you watch his tee-shot to the 17th at Scottsdale, the unluckier he looks. Best not to game out the potential ramifications of that bounce, which cleared the way for Scottie Scheffler to become a PGA Tour winner and then the Masters champion.
The way Theegala and his family dealt with that blow was endearing and his popularity soared further when he somehow made double-bogey on the 18th hole in Connecticut, this time stepping aside to allow Xander Schauffele through. Again, that led to further success for Schauffele, who won the Scottish Open a few weeks later, and ultimately kept Theegala out of the Presidents Cup team.
It also taught him plenty and having sniffed the top end of the leaderboard at the Open soon after, then won a pairs event in December, it's no surprise he's bagged a couple of high-class top-10s this year, first in the Farmers and then at Riviera. Both came in his home state of California but I've been impressed with him since, particularly when defying tough conditions to finish 14th at Bay Hill.
With his Match Play effort perfectly encouraging, he's warmed up nicely for this first try at Augusta National, and something in the region of a top-20 finish looks well within reach. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if he contended, though the well-worn stat that tells us it's now 43 years and counting since we had a debut Masters winner has to be taken into account.
The inaugural #ANWAGolf Champion and a Masters rookie. Hear from @jenniferkupcho and @SRTheegala as they trade notes on Augusta National. pic.twitter.com/KVy9a91Hv5
— PING GOLF (@PingTour) April 1, 2023
The reason I expect this will suit is that Theegala's weakness can be wild driving, which doesn't always get punished in the way you might think here. As for strengths, he's capable of first-class approach play and I like his work around the green, two departments which often go a long way to separating the field here at Augusta.
Riviera, scene of his best effort so far this year, has always been a good form guide owing to its difficulty and tree-lined, classical nature. It's upon such courses that Theegala has so far thrived and while he makes a lot of birdies, tougher conditions also underpin so much of his good play. It could be a really fun week for him and his family and one which sees him tee off pretty late come the final couple of rounds.
This market has a nice shape to it, with seven of the 18 debutants coming here as amateurs and hoping to end a run of missed cuts for such players. Of the remaining 11, Tom Kim is an opposable favourite despite his ceiling, with Theegala, Ryan Fox, Mito Pereira, Adrian Meronk and Kurt Kitayama the five who made up my shortlist.
Fox, who was 14th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 27th in The PLAYERS and then unfortunate to be knocked out of the Match Play, would be considered the next best at 8/1 despite a missed cut last week in Texas, but I'm content to stick with Theegala.
Top former winner
Here's a market that has always been worth a look, for the simple reason that the defending champion will often take out a good chunk of it, yet defending champions here at Augusta so often struggle. Dustin Johnson missing the cut is the best recent example but only once in 20 years has the top former winner market been won by the most recent one.
Scottie Scheffler makes up well over 30% of the book and there are six LIV Golf players all with questions to answer, so it strikes me that if you were keen on Jordan Spieth, taking upwards of 7/2 and hoping that Scheffler does struggle in his role as defending champion might be the right way to go.
That said the one who made most appeal was in fact Patrick Reed at 14/1 in a place. Unlike Johnson and various others, he's done just fine here since winning in 2018, and I don't think he'll be harmed by his reputation and any awkwardness LIV players may experience. If anything, it could just help.
Hideki Matsuyama would be the other viable option, that's if you were taken with his Saturday charge in Texas last week. He put up a stout defence last year (second in this market) and 17/2 seems a fair price.
All this being said, Scheffler isn't your ordinary defending champion. He reminds me of Spieth in terms of his golfing IQ and just as Spieth was the best of the former winners here in 2016, so might Scheffler be this week.
Top left-hander
I'd been pretty keen to have a go at this one and back Brian Harman to beat Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir.
Mickelson has been terrible since joining LIV Golf. Finishes of 27th, 30th and 41st this year, plus a missed cut in the Saudi International, suggest he's far from where he'd like to be as he returns in search of a fourth Masters title.
Watson finished 40th last week, one place ahead of Mickelson, and his LIV form (remember, there are only 48 players and several of them weren't able to earn PGA Tour cards) reads 40-20-40. He's back from injury and struggling to find his best golf, although I'd be more interested in him than Mickelson it must be said.
With Mike Weir likely to miss the cut, Harman will probably win this if in the form he displayed in Austin. The trouble is that's a big 'if' based on the rest of his play this year, and I don't like the idea of siding with the shortest driver among the three viable options, not with the course lengthened and set to receive plenty of rain.
Had Harman been an 11/4 chance, he'd have been worth that risk. At 15/8 and favourite, he's a little too short and it's almost a case of switching sides to back Watson at a slightly bigger price. The better option is to leave it well alone.
Top senior
For the same reasons, the top senior market was also worth looking at. Mickelson is 6/5 favourite which appears very short for someone whose form looks pretty desperate, but Bernhard Langer (4/1) has missed his last couple of cuts here and Fred Couples has struggled lately, too.
Couples might be in a better place physically this time so 6/1 isn't without appeal, especially with so few viable options further down. Vijay Singh could be one of them at 9/1 after a better effort last time on the Champions Tour, but three of his last six rounds here have been 80.
Perhaps Mickelson will it win by default after all, but splitting stakes on Langer and Couples gives you a decent chance of getting him beat.
Top continental European
With 10 runners, two of whom are veterans, plus one debutant in Adrian Meronk and a player who has never done well here in Alex Noren, the top continental European market looks ripe for a bet.
Jon Rahm is an even-money chance in a place and, with Viktor Hovland's short-game a likely hindrance, the obvious policy is to side with the Spaniard. His worst Augusta finish is 27th and even that might be enough this week, though his own expectations will be far higher.
I'm not in a rush to take him on but I am Sergio Garcia, Thomas Pieters and most in this market, so SEPP STRAKA is a super each-way bet even if he's up against it to overcome the favourite.
Straka's first taste of Augusta went well as he finished 30th and he returns having maybe just started to turn a corner of late, last week's 22nd in Texas showing his game to be in good nick through the bag.
His biggest asset is his approach play (as we saw with a practise hole-in-one on Monday) which is always a good starting point here and he has some potentially informative form at other courses, notably Riviera where he played so well a year ago before capturing the Honda Classic, itself a tough test as this is sure to be.
He isn't the most reliable and his bad golf can be very bad, but Straka was beaten only two shots in this market last year despite it being his debut and, with that behind him, can hit the frame at the very least. He might just be the one to capitalise if Rahm does disappoint.
The loudest roar of the week thus far. #themasters pic.twitter.com/ofwXwbQr7x
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 3, 2023
Top amateur
My first instinct was to side with Georgia Cup winner Aldrich Potgieter at 6/1. It felt like a fair price for an in-form winner of the Amateur Championship, who picked up some tour-level experience at the back-end of last year and may well have a Masters champion and a Masters runner-up to help show him the ropes.
He beat Sam Bennett for the Georgia Cup title which is an added boost and came days after a 10-shot win at the Junior Invitational next door in South Carolina, but I can't get away from the reputation held by world number one amateur Gordon Sargent, who has been on a sustained run of high-class performances and looks every inch a potential superstar.
Why not back him, then? Well, aside from the massive plunge which has seen him cut to as short as 11/10 from 2/1, the nagging worry is he doesn't have any tour experience. That didn't stop Doug Ghim here once but most recent winners of the Silver Cup had played a tour event of some kind, during which they'll have been able to see how it all works and perhaps establish some kind of comfort level.
Absent of that, Sargent can only be watched with interest, but if there is a Hideki Matsuyama (Silver Cup winner in 2011), Patrick Cantlay (2012), Bryson DeChambeau (2016) or Viktor Hovland (2019) in this field, it's more than likely him. He hits the ball an absurdly long way and is a player pretty much everyone in the game expects to be playing here as a professional in the coming years.
Forecasts
Finally, although it's hard enough to find the winner of a golf tournament, this one is a little less competitive than the week-to-week and it strikes me that there have been some findable forecasts down the years, perhaps none more so than the two form players in the sport finishing first and second a year ago.
My pick of the big three is Rory McIlroy, so I'll try a selection of small-stakes forecasts with outright selections Justin Thomas and Tony Finau. Unfortunately, Sky Bet's dual forecast pays shorter than splitting stakes on the straight forecasts, so while a little more fiddly, that's what we'll have to do with the MCILROY-THOMAS combinations.
Betfair Sportsbook also have a market up and their 150/1 about MCILROY-FINAU (in any order) is the pick of the prices.
