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The Masters at Augusta National: First-round preview and tips from Ben Coley
We advised a 100/1 winner on day one of the 2017 Masters and there are three more first-round leader fancies in Ben Coley's latest preview.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Kevin Kisner to lead after round one at 50/1 (1/5 1-8)
1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley to lead after round one at 80/1 (1/5 1-8)
1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim to lead after round one at 66/1 (1/5 1-8)
2pts Kisner to win his three-ball at 11/10
2pts Bradley to win his three-ball at 15/8
Kisner to beat Aphibarnrat and Imahira
Kevin Kisner is on record downplaying his chances of winning The Masters. He reckons he doesn't hit the ball far enough, especially now that the fifth tee has been pushed back, and he may well be right.
But such has been the quality of his play throughout spring that he should be fancied to at least make the weekend for the fourth time in four Masters appearances, and solid play in the first couple of rounds should be enough to make him the low man in this three-ball.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat has made both cuts at Augusta, including when 15th on debut, but slow starts are a problem in the big events. He shot 84 at the PLAYERS recently, 79 here last year, and has quickly played himself out of contention on all bar one of his major appearances.
Kisner, on the other hand, has very much been playing his way into contention lately. He's been in the final group of two of the last five majors he's played, so for all his self-effacing demeanour he should arrive in his college state with a level of confidence neither playing partner can match.
Shugo Imahira has been battling injury and it's asking a lot to tackle Augusta for the first time after a seven-week break. He's playing on an invite from Augusta National, which brings its own pressures, and looks up against it despite his obvious promise.
Back to Kisner, and he's also worth a small bet in the first-round leader market. In both those majors where he played in the final group, the 2017 PGA and the 2018 Open, he led after the first round. For good measure, he was inside the top five at the 2018 PGA, played on a course widely regarded as one for the bombers.
Lately, even prior to winning the Match Play he'd been in excellent form, hitting the frame twice in this market and narrowly missing out on a soft course in the PLAYERS. At 12th in first-round scoring and with a proven pedigree at this level, he can go well from a late tee-time.
Bradley to beat Noren and Fitzpatrick
Keegan Bradley hasn't done much to suggest he's a Masters champion in waiting, but he's a first-round machine whose ball-striking can take him to a low enough number providing the putter behaves to some degree.
Conditions should be absolutely ideal for the former major champion, who won a high-profile FedEx Cup event in the mud late last year, and I'm surprised to see he isn't a clear favourite for this three-ball.
Alex Noren has shown nothing to suggest he will ever be a serious threat at Augusta, where his preferred left-to-right shot shape is problematic. He's also woefully out of sorts bar the odd flourish at the Match Play and it's hard to drum up any kind of enthusiasm for his prospects.
Matt Fitzpatrick is of course dangerous, his seventh place here behind Danny Willett the best form on offer. Still, he lost all three ties at the Match Play having played modestly the week before and he'll need to be razor-sharp around the greens at an elongated Augusta National.
Bradley has enough low rounds here - three sub-70s - to suggest that he can do what's required and the fact that he's fourth in round-one scoring, having been 22nd last year, strengthens the case for one of the PGA Tour's pre-eminent starters.
Indeed, he looks a solid option in the first-round leader market. Like Charley Hoffman two years ago, he arrives having played beautifully on Thursday on an almost weekly basis this season, breaking 70 in each of his last eight starts - that's every full-field event he's played in 2019.
Bradley is 80/1 despite form figures of 3-11-2-1-6 in this market of late. It's a long time - more than six months - since he failed to play well at the start of a tournament and while he was nowhere near my shortlist in the outright market, he's right towards the top of it on Thursday.
Kim to lead after round one
Finally, I want an early starter on-side too and it's Si Woo Kim who makes most appeal at 80/1 with five places, or 66/1 with eight.
The Korean led after the first round in Texas last week but more importantly, his approach play looked really good. Given that he's been putting beautifully for a while, any positive movement from tee-to-green was bound to put him in contention somewhere - the only surprise is he didn't go on to win.
So far this season, Kim has hit the frame four times in this market and he can produce another low score at Augusta, where he broke 70 in round three last year. A former winner of the PLAYERS who sat fourth after round one in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last year, this sort of stage is no problem at all.
J.B. Holmes and Charl Schwartzel both bring the beneficial power and course form to the table but have been wild for most of the year, so if you're looking for a fourth string to the bow consider the big-hitting, in-form Keith Mitchell, who could light the place up on debut.