Ben Coley expects Scottie Scheffler to finish the job and win the Masters, but he's looking towards a former champion for Sunday's best bets.
Golf betting tips: The Masters final round
1pt e.w. Charl Schwartzel (without Scheffler & Smith) at 10/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Charl Schwartzel (without Scheffler, Smith & Im) at 6/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Charl Schwartzel to beat Justin Thomas in two-ball at 13/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt e.w. Charl Schwartzel to shoot the lowest Sunday round at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
2pt double Kim and Hovland to win their two-balls at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
SPORTING LIFE RAB: Kim & Hovland to win two-balls at 9/4
World number one set to win Masters
Scottie Scheffler's grip on the Masters weakened during Saturday's back-nine, but he's fancied to convert a three-shot lead over Cameron Smith in what should prove to be a head-to-head for a Green Jacket.
Scheffler came up short with his approaches to the 12th and 14th holes before three-putting the 15th, opening a door which had almost been shut when he pulled six clear with four birdies over the first nine holes. Nevertheless, he still impressed with the way he went about nursing his advantage and after turning a six into a five at the 18th hole, my suspicion is he'll go on to win his first major championship.
Smith is a brilliant competitor whose iron play has been imperious. With one of the best short-games in the world and space in which to operate off the tee, he's confirmed himself an ideal Augusta type and is not dismissed lightly. If anyone does reel in the leader then it will surely be the only player Scheffler has outperformed so far in 2022, as the Masters goes to the form book.
As always, it'll be fascinating viewing, but I'm not particularly interested in finding a bet. There's an argument that Scheffler ought to be favourite rather than underdog in their two-ball, and the 5/2 quoted that he wins by four or more is decent, but as far as the outcome of the tournament goes it makes sense to just watch it and enjoy the sport.
Scenes from Masters Saturday. #themasters pic.twitter.com/MgEIxMFHkU
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2022
Hopefully, Shane Lowry can go on and finish on the heels of the leaders, bagging the place money. He was furious to have dropped three shots over the closing 10 holes and rightly so, because all came from the middle of the fairway with a short-iron in hand. That was also true on Thursday when he doubled the 15th, and I could well see him bouncing back again here and perhaps even giving us brief hope in the outright betting.
My worry is that Lowry was fighting to get back in the tournament on Friday, whereas tonight he could lose hope of winning within the first few holes. That's not easy for a player of his mindset to adjust to and I don't think he's particularly good value in any of the sub-markets, with bookmakers offering betting without the front two and three, and various specials.
Former winner has nothing to fear
By contrast, CHARL SCHWARTZEL is a Masters champion who will be determined to finish the job here, having been in miserable form all year, and he's well overpriced across the board.
Schwartzel was a 1000.0 chance on the exchanges on Wednesday, owing to the fact he hadn't made a cut all year. But now we've seen him play another three excellent rounds at a course where he won in 2011 and was third in 2017, what happened earlier in the campaign is of less significance. He's a class act and he's playing like one.
Crucially, his long-game has been superb. Schwartzel was the best iron player in the field yesterday having ranked third in that department on Friday, with only Smith better for the tournament. He's driving it well, too, and putting is the reason he's not in the penultimate group alongside Sungjae Im.
Instead, Schwartzel plays with Justin Thomas, who has responded very well to a first-round 76 which he talked about as one of the low points of his career. I really liked Thomas this week and suspect it won't be the last time I argue the case for him winning the Masters, but prices around the 4/9 mark to beat a former winner over 18 holes are far too short.
I'm keen to chance Schwartzel, who has been even better than Thomas from tee-to-green, at odds around the 5/2 mark. It seems harsh on the South African to make him the single biggest outsider on the coupon given that he's behind only three players and continued to strike his ball really well during round three, most significantly when holing out for eagle at the 10th.
He finished best of the rest here behind the final twosome in 2017, and 10/1 about a repeat looks very fair to me. So too is the 6/1 offered without the front three, i.e. with Schwartzel effectively tied for the lead, and I'll roll the dice in the lowest final-round score betting. Schwartzel is 66/1, with only a couple of players chalked up at bigger odds. Again, I think it's a little unreasonable.
- CLICK HERE to back Schwartzel without Scheffler & Smith
- CLICK HERE to back Schwartzel without Scheffler, Smith & Im
- CLICK HERE to back Schwartzel to shoot the lowest R4 score
Can Tiger Woods see it through on Sunday?
Elsewhere on the coupon, those splitting screens to watch Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm in featured group coverage alongside the football might be tempted by Woods at 2/1 or so, as I was. He putted horribly in round three but the long-game still looked good, and it's just a question of whether his body can withstand one more day. If it can, he can upstage the out-of-sorts Spaniard.
Speaking of which, yesterday's advice to back Sergio Garcia in the top Spaniard market has us in a strong if not unassailable three-shot lead, while JJ Spaun (selected at 9/1) is tied for the lead among the debutants. That market is wide-open and I did consider adding Min Woo Lee, who plays with Spaun today and looks primed for a good end to his first visit.
But I'll focus on a couple of later pairings which will be getting towards the turn by the time the leaders head off, with SI WOO KIM (1750 BST) and VIKTOR HOVLAND (1810) both looking solid.
Kim made a hash of the 18th to spoil an otherwise solid day's work and we now have yet more proof of his fondness for this test. He's shot par or better every time he's played a final round here and his superior long-game can account for Hudson Swafford.
Hovland has struggled around the greens so with conditions potentially a little easier this evening, at least in respect of the course playing shorter and some friendlier pins, he might find things a little more to his liking.
The Norwegian can account for Hideki Matsuyama, who arrived under a cloud with neck and back injuries. Matsuyama produced one of the worst ball-striking displays in the field in round three, Hovland one of the better ones, and that may be a sign of things to come with the former's fitness in doubt.
Posted at 1035 BST on 10/04/22
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