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The Masters betting tips: Best prop bets and specials from Ben Coley
Ben Coley has two selections from the array of specials markets available ahead of the Masters, which begins on Thursday.
Golf betting tips: The Masters specials
4pts Christo Lamprecht to be the top amateur at 9/4 (General)
1pt Eric Cole to be the top debutant at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Top amateur
Top amateur favourite backers had their fingers burned last year when Gordon Sargent failed to land an almighty gamble as Sam Bennett instead made headlines. Sargent had six to beat but never looked like doing so as Bennett, sixth in the World Amateur Golf Rankings at the time, finished a mighty 16th.
Sargent was sent off around the 5/4 mark and at 9/4, to beat fewer rivals and nobody who can be called elite, CHRISTO LAMPRECHT can prove a much better bet and take home the Silver Cup, adding it to the Silver Medal he won at Hoylake.
Time will tell whether Lamprecht can keep up with Sargent in the long-run but for now he too arrives as world number one. He also captured the Georgia Cup at the weekend, beating recent PGA Tour winner Nick Dunlap in a rare battle of amateur and professional for what is a prestigious title.
That ought to be a huge confidence boost to Lamprecht, whose experience near the top of the Open leaderboard last July will also stand him in good stead. So will his power, the practise he's had with veteran Stewart Cink, and what looks like a sharp short-game, too.
But the key might just be that while the market gives loads of respect to experienced mid-am, Stewart Hagestad, presumably because he's played in the Masters twice before, Augusta will not be new to Lamprecht. He goes to college at Georgia Tech and has played a handful of rounds here as one of the associated perks.
Neal Shipley is probably short enough and Jasper Stubbs looks considerably underpriced to me, both contributing to what appear generous odds about the favourite. I won't pretend to know the amateur game inside-out, but Lamprecht is the best prospect here, he's almost certainly the best player right now, and the weekend confirmed he's in good nick.
Throw in some handy course knowledge and power that Hagestad simply does not have, and I'm amazed some firms put them in at very similar prices. There has unsurprisingly been money for the favourite, but anything bigger than 6/4 is worth taking.
Hopefully Lamprecht bags the practise round with Jordan Spieth he's been after and can learn a little bit more about what's needed from him or perhaps 2011 champion, Charl Schwartzel. If so, watch for him making the weekend, which should do the job.
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Top debutant
It's rare you'll find a major champion and a Ryder Cup record-breaker at the top of the Masters top debutant market, and it's little wonder some bookmakers go odds-on that either Wyndham Clark or Ludvig Aberg is the pick of the first-timers.
My preference would be for Aberg, who is that bit more consistent and a stronger ball-striker, but my instinct is to take on both players and I am compelled to put up ERIC COLE at 22/1.
He's been going off at about a fifth of the odds of Nick Dunlap in outright markets recently so it's odd to see them pitched in together, and Cole's best form over the past year would make him clear third best behind the big two of Clark and Aberg.
Cole was only 28/1 to win a full-field PGA Tour event involving Rory McIlroy quite recently so a few ticks shorter for this 20-man sub-market looks to give far too much weight to a blustery Texas Open, before which he was 50/1 for the Valspar, about half the odds of Akshay Bhatia (8/1). Peter Malnati, who won, was around six-times Cole's price.
All of which is to say that a year's worth of form has very quickly been forgotten because of essentially one blip in the road for Cole, who pipped (perhaps unfairly) Aberg to win rookie of the year honours in 2023. He obviously doesn't have Bhatia's potential, but before last week both DataGolf and the OWGR ranked Cole a fair bit superior in the here and now.
Given his stock draw, the fact his approaches are a strength, 10th place at correlating Riviera and his experience, Cole might just take to this and while I understand concerns around his performance in Texas last week, he was mid-pack in the Valspar before that, without holing anything.
Dunlap, Jake Knapp, Austin Eckroat and the aforementioned Lamprecht are all of some interest given their respective strengths, but Cole is the one who looks significantly overpriced if we widen the lens just slightly.
For that reason alone, he's must-bet material even if we have to accept the likelihood that Aberg or Clark proves too strong in the end. Cautious punters might want to side with Aberg as well at 100/30, but I'll stick to a small, win-only bet on Cole.
Best of the rest
At first glance, 6/4 about Brian Harman proving the pick of the lefties made some appeal. Phil Mickelson has been shooting some big numbers on the LIV Golf tour, where Bubba Watson has not been a factor; Mike Weir surely won't be, and this is a big ask for Bhatia after a draining week in Texas.
Harman though hasn't played well here in April so far and Mickelson is always capable of making bets against him at Augusta look foolish, while my initial confidence in Corey Conners proving the pick of the Canadians has also diminished somewhat.
Conners has three Masters top-10s and is hitting it as well as ever, but I'm wary of taking on an in-form Adam Hadwin, who has made two cuts here, as I am Nick Taylor. The latter has only played the November renewal so far (29th) but might prefer these conditions and has won twice in the last year.
Si Woo Kim may well justify favouritism in the top Korean market but the fact he's there at the top of it tells you that bookmakers haven't missed anything. Tom Kim and Sungjae Im would both typically be shorter than Si Woo, so their respective struggles appear to have been factored in, especially as both have strong course form.
Finally, given Viktor Hovland's imperfect preparation and the fact that Aberg is ultimately a debutant, Thorbjorn Olesen at 13/2 to be the top Scandinavian certainly earned a second glance, while he's a solid option at a shade of odds-on to be the top Dane.
I considered putting up Olesen outright at 200/1 or so following 14th place last week, where his approach play and chipping, two Augusta essentials, were both sharp. This course should help with his occasionally errant driving and he does have a previous Masters top-10 finish to call upon.
Aberg is so solid that the bar is set high and Hovland could clearly spring back into life, but the former has putted poorly two starts running and Hovland's form has been a pale shadow of 2023. It wouldn't surprise me were Olesen to cause an upset, while his course experience gives him the edge over Hojgaard, too.
Posted at 1025 BST on 09/04/24
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