The Masters betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for golf major at Augusta National

Our golf expert made 28/1 Cameron Smith his headline pick for the Open and also selected 28/1 Rory McIlroy for the first-round lead in the US PGA for a profitable 2022 in the majors. His full record can be found by clicking here.

Golf betting tips: The Masters

4pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 25/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Shane Lowry at 50/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 55/1 (bet365, 888sport 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Min Woo Lee at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 60/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

• CLICK HERE to add all selections to bet slip

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In your mind, you can walk Augusta National. In your dreams, you've probably been there.

You'll know that the bunker to the right of the first fairway pushes a player towards the trees on the left. You remember the albatross at two and the chip-in at three. You're ready for the potential disaster at four and the backwater brutalities that happen off-camera amid the eerie quiet of the fifth hole.

You've seen countless wedges that barely hold on to the top tier at six, the one that spins from back to front and threatens the hole for the second or third time that day at seven. The hooked second at eight, at least you hope it's their second but what if they were in the fairway bunker off the tee. The wrong level at nine, time and time and time again. How soon birdie becomes bogey here.

McIlroy at 10, Mize at 11, Molinari at 12. Mickelson from the trees at 13 and his marble-run to the hole at 14. The shot heard around the world at 15. Tiger at 16. In your life have you seen anything like that? Nicklaus at 17. Everyone who has ever won this tournament at 18. You could stride onto that green now and plant the flag precisely where it will be on Sunday.

The Masters is indelible. It is no less a constant to those of us who love golf than the month in which it is played; spring's dawn chorus, better rather than worse for being exactly the same as last year, and the year before that. The year before that, when it had to happen in November and didn't quite feel the same, its familiarity was still comforting.

This is the 87th Masters Tournament and it won't be the strangest. It will though be unique, in this era at least, for bringing players together who've spent much of the last 12 months apart. Those who deny any tension, who blame the media for stirring the pot while it's their names that appear on court documents, are kidding themselves. Plenty within the sport have become rather good at that.

This narrative, the PGA Tour versus LIV Golf here in golfing Switzerland, may yet colour this tournament as much as any yellow flag, pink azalea or green jacket, but for now let's set it to one side. What's done is done, what will be will be, and whatever it is will be worth dedicating ourselves to for four days of brilliant sport. Or else five, if the rain is that bad.

If the Masters has lacked anything since Tiger Woods won his 15th major in 2019, it is not hostility but jeopardy – late on Sunday, at least. Dustin Johnson never looked like losing, Hideki Matsuyama's late mistakes came too late to matter, and Scottie Scheffler won by three after a double-bogey at the final hole. From the moment Woods found the 12th green, final rounds have been more about achievement than drama.

Let's hope that this time the old maxim rings true, and the Masters really doesn't begin until the back-nine on Sunday.

What does it take to win the Masters?

By now it's established that quality approach play is the best starting point anywhere, and that's certainly the case at Augusta. But versus just about any other tournament on the calendar, there has so far been a significantly greater increase in what's required around the green, and while new-world data is exactly that – new – what we're seeing makes sense.

At somewhere like Bay Hill or Torrey Pines, a missed green will often result in the ball coming to rest in thick rough, not far from where it landed. Damage is limited by the grass and so are the options a player has. Much may depend on a bit of luck with the lie, but one way or another it's a lofted wedge coming out of the bag. Good misses are under the hole, bad ones above it, and that's just about that.

At Augusta, coming up short at the ninth might mean a 40-yard pitch from a tight lie. Missing left at 10 means running away from the green; missing right means playing your next shot straight down its camber. At the 11th, players are encouraged to bail out to the right, but if they do that their ball might kick further in the same direction. Small mistakes are magnified ten-fold, like short on three and 12, long on seven and 17.

That in turn means two things. One, that a good short-game is an absolute must, because everyone will face peril at some stage. Two, that the time-worn metric of greens-in-regulation, which for so long has underpinned success in the Masters, remains relevant. Where in another tournament on another course simply hitting the green might mean losing strokes, here at Augusta, to do so is to avoid the multiplying dangers that lurk at the sides.

You don't have to be a great putter to succeed in the Masters, even if we can measure the gap between Scheffler and McIlroy, first and second last year, by how they performed with that club. If Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Adam Scott can putt well enough to become major champions at Augusta National, then we ought to know that the key to victory lies elsewhere. Length, precision approach shots, touch, a little bit of fortune, and a lot of pragmatism.

How will the favourites fare?

Scheffler defends and that is a very difficult thing to do in this major above all others. The easiest explanation concerns the sheer magnitude of the Masters, the gravitas, even the wait which somehow feels longer. It extends to the Champions Dinner, this year's hopefully ending in a food fight, and by the time the actual act of defending comes around, no wonder so many have been spent.

But Scheffler is different. This is a man who can chit-chat about his wife's charming foibles as he waits for his turn to play a shot which would reduce most to a whimpering mess. He can smile and mean it when something goes against him. He's the best player on the PGA Tour not only at avoiding bogeys, but making up for them when they arrive. He's better equipped than anyone since Jordan Spieth to go out and win his second Masters right after his first, and let's not forget Spieth was one or two good swings from doing exactly that.

Scheffler has defended his Phoenix Open title, he almost defended his Arnold Palmer Invitational title, and he should probably have defended his WGC-Match Play title. All of this has been achieved without unnecessary expenditure and, at times, without much of a contribution from his putter. He is the benchmark, his Augusta form strong before he earned a lifetime of return visits, and if anyone can win it back-to-back, perhaps he can.

We must also acknowledge the strength of the competition. Jon Rahm's preparation hasn't necessarily gone to plan, but who among us expects anything other than a serious go at winning this for the first time. Rahm has been a factor of some kind every time he's played at Augusta, including as an amateur, and his short-game is unrecognisable from the one which had been a real mess prior to last year's mediocre 27th.

And then there's Rory McIlroy. Eight times he's come here seeking golfing immortality, eight times he's failed, but this permanently phenomenal golfer with more guts than he's given credit for will have more chances.

It can be argued that his preparation this time is ideal. He's won this year, but not so recently as to increase expectations too much. He's tweaked his equipment, driver, wedges and putter, and bedded all of them in. And, for perhaps the first time in his entire career, he comes to Augusta having had control over his irons for many months.

Always a delight to watch around the green and advantaged by the new tee at the lengthened 13th, McIlroy need only start well to be the man to beat. It would be some way to complete the arc which began here last year, when he changed his ball, found his game again, and declared that he'd never been happier on the golf course than when finishing in style for second place.

I can't say with certainty that he can stand on that 10th tee on Sunday with some kind of grip on the tournament and irrevocably tighten it, because he's not done that in any major for almost a decade and has never done it in this one. But I can say that I remain faithful, and that he would be my pick of the favourites not through favouritism, but through confidence that he will deliver this week, whether that means winning or not. Of the three, he's the one I simply expect to figure.

It could be argued that backing one of the favourites is a must. It could even be argued that backing all three each-way, capitalising on generous place terms as part of a deal which all but guarantees a contender, is the weights-and-measures route to making a little bit of money. But that's not why I'm here, and I suspect it's not why you're here. In a tournament invariably won by an elite player but not always at an elite-player price, the most appealing options lie further down.

Who is the best bet to win the Masters?

I'm not sure whether or not you should be surprised to learn that JUSTIN THOMAS again gets the headline vote.

• CLICK HERE to back Thomas with Sky Bet

On the one hand, not at all: he's been selected on these pages for this tournament every year since 2018. On the other... he's been selected on these pages for this tournament every year since 2018. Thomas is not yet a Masters champion and, like McIlroy in fact, he's not entered Amen Corner on Sunday with a genuine chance to change that.

But just as patience will be important for the players, it's important when we get to test our Masters theories just once every year. Five chances, during which Thomas has led at halfway (2020), defied a slow start to finish eighth (2022), fought back for 12th (2019) and been well-placed on other occasions, really isn't many, and throughout a seven-for-seven record at Augusta, he's looked a potential champion in my eyes.

This time, we at least get a bigger price than in all of these examples, reward you could say for keeping the faith, and yet there are a couple of potential positives which I feel help make up an irresistible each-way proposition.

First and foremost, he arrives as a recent major winner for just the second time. Rewind 12 months and his underperformance in majors had spanned five years, something he talked about before the tournament. It's why he turned to Jim Mackay, Phil Mickelson's former caddie, and just a few weeks on from a battling top-10 in their first Masters together, Thomas ruthlessly capitalised on a gifted opportunity to land the PGA Championship.

That's got to be in Thomas's favour, to have answered his own criticism and validated his earlier victory in the same event. And it leads us back to another big tick in the box, the fact that he has Bones on the bag here at Augusta. Three times a Masters winner with Mickelson, it seems perfectly plausible that his input helps to explain why Thomas at last putted well at Augusta a year ago, in the same tournament that Bubba Watson's former caddie showed us how worthwhile that kind of input can be.

Of course, there's only so much Mackay can do, and Thomas admitted he was inexplicably bereft of the required focus when the tournament began. That's why he was out of it so quickly and a better start seems essential. He'll be well aware of this fact and wherever and whenever he's drawn for the first round, we should at least be able to guarantee that he learns the lessons of last year and has his head in the game.

Beyond these two points, we know by now that the things Thomas does best marry up perfectly with Augusta. Perhaps only Collin Morikawa can lay claim to being a superior iron player but there's not much between them, and there is in fact nobody who ranks higher in strokes-gained around-the-green this year. Thomas is outstanding when chipping and pitching from tight lies, shots that don't scare him as they do some others.

Now, his iron play has dipped a little, and that explains why he recently dropped out of the world's top 10. It's a bit of a worry but no more than that, especially as five of his last six starts have been good, only for the Genesis Invitational to drag his numbers down. He's not been at the levels of last summer but I doubt he's all that far from reaching them once more.

His preparation has been different to some, skipping the Match Play after 10th place at the Valspar, and that could yet work in his favour. There have been five big events in under four months as the best players gather more often and missing one of them certainly doesn't seem like a bad idea. The tougher schedule also makes five top-25s in his last six starts seem like a decent platform even if others have been battling it out late on Sunday afternoons.

My view ultimately remains unchanged – that he's going to go really close to winning this soon enough. And as others around him in the market, the likes of Spieth, Jason Day and in a different way Patrick Cantlay, have to show they can get it done against elite fields, Thomas is one of the three players to have won a major since this tournament last took place.

For that reason he's narrowly preferred to Cantlay, who is hitting his ball just about as well as he ever has and, granted better work on and around the green, might have won more than once this year. His record in majors is the big question mark but I put him up to win any one of the four this year at 7/1 because I do expect him to work it out, and because he showed signs of doing so in both the US Open and the Open Championship.

Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Thomas ultimately made up my preferred trio among those quoted at less than 25/1, and it's Thomas who I'm resolutely sticking with. Faced with a tricky up and down he's the one I'd want hitting it; he's also the one I'd want to be standing on that 16th tee in a share of the lead on Sunday. Let's keep the faith and hope that's the sort of situation he finds himself in at last.

Pick Finau in popularity contest

Max Homa merits close inspection because while history says he's got a lot against him, he's played to a better standard than many of those ahead of him in the betting. Let's remember that had Louis Oosthuizen won a play-off in 2012, his Masters form would've read MC-MC-MC-1. Is it all that difficult to imagine Homa's reading MC-MC-48-1 come Sunday night?

Preference though is for another who would rate an exceptionally popular winner, TONY FINAU, who has done nothing but increase his chances with the way he's played this year, yet seems to have dropped off the radar just a little.

• CLICK HERE to back Finau with Sky Bet

Finau's course form is rock solid and he's done all the things you'd like to see in terms of preparing to go ahead and win a green jacket. Famously, his debut 10th came after he'd dislocated his ankle in a horrific fall during the par-three tournament, then on just his second start at the course he played in the final group with Tiger Woods and Francesco Molinari, settling for fifth with a final-round 72.

Seemingly less suited by easier conditions for the November edition, he nevertheless added another sub-70 round and kept alive his cuts-made streak, before defying a slow start to finish 10th again in 2021. There, a second-round 66 added to one he'd carded on debut, plus the eight-under 64 that had vaulted him into that famous three-ball with Woods a year later.

Finau wasn't a factor when 35th last year, but he arrived at Augusta ranked 95th in strokes-gained total and his short-game was a mess. Soon after, he found the required fixes and went on to win back-to-back titles during summer before adding another at a tough course in Houston, where shaved run-offs and the need for big-hitting help draw some sensible comparisons with this place.

Now, he's fourth in SG: total, and that's because everything is working. Finau ranks 25th off the tee, 26th in putting and a solid enough 82nd around the green, a category in which he's produced positive season-long numbers since 2017. His iron play in particular has been among the most consistent on the PGA Tour, gaining strokes in every recorded start so far this season and continuing to pound greens.

All of this is why Finau hasn't finished outside the top 25 in any tournament since the first week of November, his return from a six-week break. He's played in 23 tournaments since last year's Masters, winning three and finishing in the top 10 of seven others. And while yes, these have not all been in elite company, we know thanks to no fewer than 10 major top-10s that he is better than most at producing when he really wants to.

Of course, winning is different, but he's now done that four times in less than 18 months, including when getting the better of Rahm and Cam Smith at Liberty National, a tough course where the previous two champions had already won the Masters.

Finau at last appears ready to take that next step and while like Thomas it's the short putts that would worry me most, enough of them went in for Scott, Watson, Garcia and Matsuyama. They might just go in for him now that he's put questions over his ability to close firmly to bed.

Will Zalatoris could easily slot in at the end of that list, his uneasy-on-the-eye putting stroke no hindrance here so far. Rewind to when he won the FedEx St Jude Invitational and it would've been difficult to foresee prices in the region of the 33/1 mark, given that he's been second and sixth here and then effectively lost by a shot in both the PGA Championship and the US Open.

Following an injury which forced him to skip the Presidents Cup he's been working backwards from April, but there's just not been enough real encouragement from his performances so far this season. We can make allowances for his gradual return to full fitness and acknowledge one good week at Riviera, but he's simply not been the same player.

Second-time lucky?

Charl Schwartzel, Spieth and Danny Willett all won the Masters on their second starts at Augusta and there are a handful of potential candidates to do the same.

Sam Burns and Cameron Young are the two towards the front of the market but they'd need to improve massively upon missed cuts last year, so I prefer the likes of Seamus Power, Sepp Straka and Keith Mitchell at big prices, all of whom gave us something to work with on debut.

But while each of the three would surprise me were they to become major champions here or elsewhere, MIN WOO LEE wouldn't. The young Aussie is undoubtedly capable of emulating his sister, Minjee, and winning one of these.

• CLICK HERE to back Lee with Sky Bet

Min Woo was 14th on his Masters debut and it perhaps should've been better, as after going out in a record-equalling 30 strokes on Sunday, the wheels came off and he came home in 40, missing an automatic invite to return the following year by just a shot.

He's put that right by qualifying on merit thanks to a string of excellent displays across the world, first contending in Europe, then in the Middle East where he was a shot away from a second Rolex Series win in January, and more recently when sixth in The PLAYERS.

That reminds me a little of Willett, who had contended in the WGC-Cadillac Championship before picking Spieth's pocket here, and both he and Schwartzel were winning for the first time on US soil to prove that it can be done at the highest level – a fact demonstrated by Matt Fitzpatrick subsequently.

As well as his performance here, what I like about Lee is that his game is such a nice fit for the Masters. Long off the tee and outstanding around the green, his approach play has improved markedly over the past 12 months, and his mid-to-long irons are a big asset.

With a putter that can certainly run hot, he's every inch the modern powerhouse but with some welcome adaptability thrown in, having grown up in windy Perth and already won a Scottish Open. That might come in handy should the worst of the weather forecast play out in the coming days, with rain expected throughout the tournament.

He'll have learned plenty at Sawgrass, where he played in the final group with the world number one on Sunday, and there's no doubt his game is in a much better place when he came so close to landing the each-way money last April.

"Yeah, coming into this week I wasn't, obviously, playing that well, so this place gets you on another level just because you're in front of millions of people and you need to play good," he said back then.

"There's some demanding shots out here, and it makes you kind of reverse psychology and tell yourself you just have to commit to it. If you have a bad swing, you have a bad swing, but you just have to commit to every shot out here."

Lee fell in love with Augusta at first sight and went on to finish 27th in the US Open and 21st in the Open, before taking sixth place on his debut in The PLAYERS. These are big-time performances from a 24-year-old with the world at his feet, whose game still appeared to be in good nick at the Match Play.

A win for Lee would undoubtedly rank among the biggest recent surprises at Augusta along with those of Schwartzel and Willett, but he's got the ability. And, after six months spent gaining valuable experience not just when playing with Scheffler in Florida but also with Rahm in Spain, he might just be ready.

Rock on, Tommy!

That point about breaking through in the US by winning a major, which Fitzpatrick did at Brookline last June, brings me to my next selection, TOMMY FLEETWOOD.

• CLICK HERE to back Fleetwood with Sky Bet

The more I look at his profile the more I like, and the more that nagging worry that he's not yet managed to get the job done stateside loses significance.

It certainly won't be lost on Fleetwood that Fitzpatrick managed it and, just like so many major champions, Fitzpatrick's win came after he'd been in the mix for another – in his case just a few weeks earlier at the PGA Championship won by Thomas.

Patrick Reed's 2018 win came after he'd been T2 in the PGA alongside Francesco Molinari, who went on to capture the Open later that summer. Spieth had given Watson plenty to think about when runner-up here on debut and then won the next one. Thomas led the US Open, fell away, then soon put things right in the PGA. Day's sole major so far came after he'd narrowly missed out at St Andrews, and Shane Lowry had blown a big lead in the US Open won by Dustin Johnson, who'd done that before too.

Getting a taste of it, or 'base-camping' as my colleague and friend Matt Cooper calls it, can make all the difference.

Fleetwood hasn't had a real chance to win one since playing in the final group of the Open at Portrush, but he finished fifth in the US PGA last year and fourth in the Open, taking his tally of major top-fives to five from fewer than 30 attempts, and produced some of the best golf of the weekend in both events. In total, he's had three what you'd call genuine chances to win a major, which is more than many a higher-ranked player.

It's a rock-solid record which speaks to his level-headed ability to cut through the noise and demonstrate both patience and persistence, assets which could be all the more beneficial in this particular Masters where there's a lot of LIV Golf chat together with some foul weather in the forecast.

His Augusta form book shows five cuts made in a row since failing to do so on his first try, and last year's 14th was his best yet. More importantly, across these appearances he's ranked inside the top dozen for greens hit on four occasions, something Garcia, Spieth, Watson, Scott and many more Masters champions had also done previously.

Fleetwood's iron play looks particularly strong right now, his strokes-gained approach figures positive for his last 10 measured starts, and while driver has been on and off it's encouraging that he ranked third in strokes-gained off the tee here last year. His preference for hitting a draw suggests that club could well improve here again.

Around the green, Fleetwood has long been exceptional, and in fact he's one of four players in this field who feature in the top 25 for both that category and strokes-gained approach. The other three are all shorter in the betting and with good reason, but Fleetwood is a big price for one with such a strong record in major championships.

I like the fact he's contended in his last two stroke play starts and the Valspar, played at a tough, classical, dog-legged course, might not be a bad guide in itself. Reed went close to winning there weeks before capturing the Masters, Spieth won both in 2015, Schwartzel's two US wins came at Augusta and Copperhead, and Tiger Woods was second, tied with Reed, on his one and only appearance at the latter.

However that works out, Fleetwood has shown enough to suggest he's ready to contend in the Masters for the first time. It's the only major in which he doesn't yet have a top-five finish but that could well change this week.

Lowry an artist made for Augusta

There are a couple of first-time visitors I like but the last to win on debut was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 so I'll save those names for Tuesday's specials preview, which leaves me with three more that I've whittled down to two.

First to another I've been on here before, SHANE LOWRY, who fought back to place for us last year despite giving up all chance to win when making a mess of the fourth hole on Sunday.

• CLICK HERE to back Lowry with Sky Bet

Having also made a double-bogey seven on Thursday, a couple of bad swings at the wrong time were all that separated Lowry from Scheffler, nevertheless his Masters record now has real substance to it after three visits in a row which ended in top-25 finishes.

Three missed cuts in his first four appearances had suggested that Lowry might always struggle here, despite magic hands and his quality approach play, but in fairness he'd opened up with a four-under 68 on his second go to hint at a brighter future.

Then, in 2020, he did something that set him on a path to last year's performance: he fought hard to make the cut, did so, and was later rewarded with another round alongside Tiger Woods, with whom he'd played over the first couple of days.

"Like I said to Bo (Martin, his former caddie) walking up 17, you just want to get into the weekend. I want to get two more rounds here just to learn, just to keep learning how to play this place because I don't quite have it figured out yet.

"I'm going to get a few more chances to come back here. This weekend is all about learning for me, and hopefully I can shoot a couple of good scores along the way."

Lowry did that, climbing to 25th, returned a year later to edge up to 21st, and then defied a sluggish start to haul himself into the mix last year. Although it wasn't the result he wanted, on reflection he was pleased to have finished third without feeling he'd done everything right, just as he felt he'd played well enough to have a chance a year earlier.

A winner since in the BMW PGA Championship, again in high-class company as is the drill for this major and WGC winner, he returns knowing rather than believing that he can win at Augusta.

The difficulty I had was in assessing the state of his game. There's no doubt he was in better shape overall last year, but that trade-off with stronger Augusta form to now call upon seems a good one given that we're getting the same sort of price in what you could argue is an ever-so-slightly weaker field.

And there are some hints that he's close, too. Not only has he contended in Abu Dhabi and at the Honda Classic, exactly as he did in 2022, but Lowry played the final 54 holes at Sawgrass in nine-under, climbing to 35th having been five-over for his first 18.

"The last three days are as good of golf as I can play, and I need to find something on the greens over the next couple of weeks," he said. "I hit the ball great.

"I want to do well in (Match Play) because it's a big event, but I want to just feel comfortable in my game.

"I might play well and get beat out there; that's the type of event it is. So I want to go there and play well, come out with some confidence going into my week before Augusta, and kind of be at home the week before to just sharpen my game."

Did he do that in Texas? I think so. Lowry beat Spieth in his final match having lost to two of the best putters on the PGA Tour over the first two days. He was under-par for all three rounds and he putted better himself, which was probably the thing he most needed to see. Having done that well here last year, a significant piece of the jigsaw might've been found just in time.

Given that he's never got out of his group at the Match Play, the combination of the Spieth win and his play over the final three rounds of The PLAYERS has ultimately convinced me that he can take that next step up, form-wise. We know he's up to winning majors and I'm certain his strengths are complemented by Augusta.

Lowry is an enormous price on the exchanges at the time of writing and both he and Fleetwood can be backed at 66/1 with some smaller firms paying seven places. Those are the best options but as ever, readers who decide to follow the selections will have their own to choose from and can act accordingly.

Rose to flourish in the rain?

Sungjae Im has been inside the top 10 at the conclusion of eight of his 10 rounds at Augusta, four in November and then four in April, and his solid bank of form across this year's elevated events marks him down as an obvious each-way player once more.

Unfortunately, that's a view many seem to hold and his price now looks short enough, so at 50/1 and bigger I'm more inclined towards another course specialist with stacks of experience and a major in the locker, JUSTIN ROSE.

• CLICK HERE to back Rose with Sky Bet

Rose won his US Open after a deluge at Merion ensured the week was a real grind and I could see him doing the same here, having rubber-stamped his return to form when capturing the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am towards the beginning of the year.

Two missed cuts followed but he was back at his ball-striking best when sixth at The PLAYERS, holing little, before 36th place in the Valspar Championship where his putter warmed up and he again drove the ball well.

Ninth place in Houston back in November is a nice little bonus as while keen not to place too much emphasis on an event played on a municipal course at a different time of year, there's no denying the fact that the 2020 renewal saw the next two Masters champions share second, and the 2021 renewal saw Scheffler lead through 54 holes.

Rose though doesn't have to prove to us that Augusta suits because he should already be a champion here, having traded at long odds-on only to succumb to an inspired fightback by Garcia six years ago.

Fifth in 2007, eighth in 2012, second as well in 2015 and seventh in 2021, he simply knows what to do and what not to do in the Masters and I don't think that winning is beyond the 42-year-old, not now that he's reminded himself what that feels like and rejuvenated his Ryder Cup prospects while doing so.

Statistically speaking he's gaining strokes in all four departments, just as he did last season, and as with Lowry and Fleetwood the forecast plays some part in this. Rain, thunderstorms, delays and perhaps even a Monday finish might all combine to further increase the value of experience in a tournament where it already counts for a lot.

To end, don't mistake the absence of LIV golfers from the staking plan as anything more than antipathy towards their prices and their preparation, rather than their life choices. Two of them featured in my Open preview last summer along with Cam Smith, who at the time was LIV's worst-kept secret. I've no issues at all in putting up any one of them.

Dustin Johnson and Mito Pereira both made some appeal, but Johnson has been lacklustre it would seem (full strokes-gained data would help) and Pereira is another debutant who has the weight of history against him, not to mention the demons of his finish to last year's PGA Championship.

It was there that Thomas swooped in to capitalise and at 20/1 and upwards, there was absolutely no hesitation in making him the best bet of what could be a long but nevertheless fantastic week.

Posted at 1700 BST on 03/04/23

REQUEST-A-BET: McIlroy T10, Fleetwood T20, Theegala top debutant (all including ties) at 18/1

The Masters: More content from Sporting Life

• Ben Coley's comprehensive player-by-player guide
• Augusta National hole-by-hole course guide
• The Masters: Specials and prop bets
• Listen to the Betfair Only Bettor Masters podcast
• The Masters: Tee-times & TV coverage
• Watch Tiger's magic Masters moments
• Five must-see moments from Augusta National