Jon Rahm can be taken on in the top continental European market at this week's US PGA according to golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship specials
1pt e.w. Thomas Pieters top continental European at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Victor Perez top continental European at 22/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Phil Mickelson top former winner at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
Sky Bet odds - 11 places outright | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
One feature of the 2012 PGA Championship, the last renewal to be played at Kiawah Island, was the presence of so many Europeans in the mix. Indeed of the home contingent, only Keegan Bradley infiltrated the top of the leaderboard, stars-and-stripes back-up provided by Blake Adams and Steve Stricker in a tournament which saw all of the main home hopes prove a little underwhelming.
Friday's brutal second round had something to do with that although the fact that the best American scores came from Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson that day also tells us something about the situation as it was at the time. Perhaps it's not that they collectively didn't much like the course, and more that the likes of Webb Simpson, Jason Dufner, Matt Kuchar, Stricker, Zach Johnson and Hunter Mahan were the best Americans around.
Nevertheless, the presence of three Englishmen, two Swedes, a Welshman and that boy wonder from Northern Ireland at the top of the leaderboard does suggest that Pete Dye's exposed course affords the Europeans a certain level of comfort, and it would be no surprise were one of them to triumph on Sunday night.
With McIlroy appearing to hold solid claims and Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood both in my outright staking plan, the top European market doesn't make any appeal whereas if we focus on those from the continent, perhaps there's some mileage in taking on the favourites.
Click the image for latest Sky Bet odds on the US PGA
It's not that Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland are easily taken on. Rahm loves Pete Dye designs and is an excellent links golfer who placed at the Masters last month, days after becoming a father and having not prepared in the way he ordinarily would. Hovland meanwhile is one of the form players in the world, and for reasons touched upon back in December made plenty of appeal for this antepost.
In the here and now, however, both look short. Rahm has barely shifted in the market despite producing his worst two performances of the year since Augusta, the combination of parenthood and relatively new equipment perhaps explaining his relative struggles. As for Hovland, suddenly a young player yet to contend in a major finds himself at 22/1. One firm makes him shorter in the market than Dustin Johnson, which I find a little silly.
Those outright odds help form their positions in the market for the top continental European, and it's odds-on one of them wins this market. Nevertheless they do not look bombproof, and with Sergio Garcia's form in majors since winning one reading 21-37-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-52-67-MC-MC-MC, he's also there to be opposed.
I'll do so with two each-way plays in the shape of THOMAS PIETERS and VICTOR PEREZ.
Pieters came close to making my outright selections at 200/1, largely because when he's played in a major which demands length, he's played well. That was true at Winged Foot (23rd) and Bethpage (23rd), but also in both the 2018 PGA Championship (T6) and the previous year's Masters (T4). Throw in two top-sixes in WGCs and he's placed at the very highest level on four separate occasions.
Having spent this spring on the fringes of the top-10 in a string of coastal events played on paspalum grass before going well in the Zurich Classic with Tom Lewis, he missed the cut last week, yet the fundamentals of his game remained strong. Indeed Pieters was just a shot shy having produced a brilliant display of ball-striking in round two.
Kiawah Island will be the longest course in major history and while I don't believe we should rush to eliminate all bar the biggest hitters, that plus his recent play and some decent form at potentially correlating courses make him of some interest. He's more than capable of upstaging Rahm and Hovland in this market at 20/1.
One week can change everything in this game
— The Tour Caddies (@thetourcaddies) May 18, 2021
Pup who caddies for @BurmyGolf won a couple of weeks ago for his first win in 16 years
Now he's at Kiawah preparing for the #PGAChamp #MoreThanCarryingABag pic.twitter.com/KHbMeG8bdI
As for Perez, on the face of it 175/1 is an enormous price for a player currently inside the European Ryder Cup team. It stems from a missed cut at Augusta and his subsequent absence, but prior to that he went all the way to the semi-finals of the Match Play, before which he'd scraped through to the weekend then stormed to a top-10 finish at Sawgrass.
Both those events are played on Dye designs, which bodes well, and so does the pick of his European Tour form. So far, the young Frenchman has excelled in the Middle East, where dealing with a steady breeze is important, while his victory came in the Dunhill Links. He's a quality ball-striker, too, and he could go really well this week.
Perhaps it will also prove significant that he has something of a secret weapon: caddie JP Fitzgerald. He was the man on the bag when McIlroy won by eight shots here and can help Perez to find the right lines off the tee at a course which does its best to make players feel uncomfortable with driver in hand.
At 22/1, he too looks decent value and if we get one of the two in the top three, we'll be rewarded nicely enough. I don't know as Alex Noren deserves to be shorter than both, Francesco Molinari's comeback has stalled just a little, and once you get below Henrik Stenson in the market you're into the European Tour regulars to whom this is a largely new experience.
Perez, who was 22nd in this last year, is getting more comfortable in the USA and Pieters, star of the 2016 Ryder Cup, is more than capable of rising to the challenge. Both make plenty of appeal.
Phil your boots? Well, not quite...
Backing PHIL MICKELSON with confidence in any market isn't really possible any more, but there's definite value in taking him to be the top former winner.
McIlroy and Justin Thomas quite rightly dominate the market, but then we've Collin Morikawa, who faces the huge task of defending his title. He's risen to most challenges so far but suffered a post-PGA lull last year and a similarly low-key performance here wouldn't surprise me.
With Brooks Koepka plainly not fit, Keegan Bradley into what appears to be a very skinny price and Jason Day playing poorly, we get to 28/1 shot Mickelson as one of the handful of realistic options to upstage those above him in the betting.
Mickelson has been playing quite nicely, though. He started in blistering fashion at Quail Hollow, defied a slow start for 25th in the Masters, filled the same spot in the Honda and was better than he usually is at Sawgrass. Two missed cuts both came with second-round 69s and there's been a lot of good stuff in amongst the odd catastrophe.
He'll have to avoid big numbers here but played reasonably when mid-pack in 2012, producing his best golf during the worst of the weather on Friday, and he'll be buoyed by receiving a special invite to the US Open next month. Generally strong with his approaches and with the putter firing, he's capable of a top-20 finish and should he manage it, we won't need much help to at least land the place part.
Certainly, he looks too close to Martin Kaymer and Jason Dufner in the betting and anything bigger than 14/1 is good value for a small, speculative play in a market which contains plenty of deadwood. Mickelson says the only thing missing is focus and Kiawah Island should hold his attention.
Posted at 1405 BST on 18/05/21
PGA Championship previews
- Ben Coley's outright betting preview and tips
- Specials betting preview and tips
- Kiawah Island hole-by-hole guide
- Playing for places: Outsiders who could contend
- US PGA Championship: Expert picks
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