Jason Daniels is expecting Andy Sullivan to convert a two-shot lead in the Golf in Dubai Championship.
Recommended bets
2pts Andy Sullivan to win the Golf in Dubai Championship at 11/10
2pts Robert McIntyre to finish in the top five at 13/8
To paraphrase Tony Johnstone at Leopard Creek, you don't need a long course to make an exciting, competitive tournament. He will be glad he is at the South African Open rather than in Dubai then!
7,400 yards it might be but the Fire Course is proving less than efficient at keeping the low scores at bay and without wind has little defence other than not relying on the greens-in-regulation stats. Miss too many of these dinner plates and take a serious look at your game. That the greens now have give in them has virtually removed any protection against low numbers.
That said, nothing should be taken away from ANDY SULLIVAN, a links and desert specialist who gagged up by seven shots at Hanbury Manor in August. Back then he led the strokes gained tee-to-green and the strokes gained approach stats and is pretty much doing the same here give or take a place or two. Perfect in the first round here when recording 11-under, it was more the lipped putts rather than that single bogey at one of the harder ranked holes that spoiled a possible follow-up and surely his high ranking in par-four performance will keep him challenging on Saturday lunchtime at worst.
As befits a player standing second for the seasonal long tee-to-green and approach stats, when he is 'on' he is very difficult to shift and, having already proven he can hold his class with a fast-closing third (65 final round) at the prestigious BMW at Wentworth, really does look very hard to oppose especially after viewing those three prior top-five finishes in Dubai. His third-round 68 was professional rather than brilliant but that is all he needed to do.
Having briefly been joined in the lead at 19-under, Sullivan birdied two of his last three to push ahead by a couple and whilst no lead is ever really enough, he is two from three when leading going into payday, impressively pulling clear in Portugal and at the English Championship. Given the doubts surrounding those immediately behind him he won't make you rich but odds-against is very fair and rates a bet.
Despite the lack of anything more than a zephyr, there is a load of links and desert form on the of the leaderboard with Matt Wallace and Ross Fisher, Renato Paratore, Thorbjorn Olesen and Steven Brown amongst a myriad of players that can also include form at Portugal, a venue often linked with Qatar and ergo Dubai.
With no real difficulty off the tee this will be more of a test of proximity to the hole and nerve in holing the important five-footers rather than anything else, and any player with confidence in his irons will leave a heap of chances. It looks certain that there will be a score of 64 or so but that may not be enough to stop the front couple galloping away. Nevertheless a couple look worth mentioning given their progression and suitability this week.
Followers of Ben Coley's pre-event column will be hoping that Ross Fisher lands a place at least at a nice price, and they certainly will not have been unhappy at halfway. An initial bogey-free 36 holes where he led the tee-to-green table is impressive given his only real recent form is that 20th at Wentworth, but look deeper and the next best efforts are a trio of top-10s in this part of the world.
Rather like a lot of these it won't be any wind that will bother him but, even having got his third round going after starting in static fashion, he doesn't appeal as the likeliest to putt the lights out and therefore the winner amongst these. Best of luck for sure in ending the season with a bang but, for me, a place is the best backers can hope for from a man without a win in over six years.
Desert and particularly Dubai form is well advertised by the likes of Mike Lorenzo-Vera and Thomas Pieters and while both are hard to win with, the Belgian is very streaky and could easily be the one to shoot ridiculously low tomorrow. Lorenzo-Vera has so much form in this part of the world but hasn't won since taking the Challenge Tour final a massive 13 years ago.
Wallace let favourite backers down in Scotland with an abject display when in front and has only won twice from five starts when in the final group on a 'Sunday'. He also seems to be a consistently short price wherever he is in the field, and at 51st in the world there's potentially a Masters invite riding on this round alone. How he copes with that might be key but Sullivan has to be preferred given his recent, winning form.
The likes of unexposed Craig Howie, Max Schmitt, John Axelesen and Lorezo Scalise will surely need more experience in the mix before being trusted in this higher grade. All must be noted for the future especially the Italian 22-year-old Scalise, runner-up at the European Amateur and who mixed it with the likes of the Hojgaards, Min Woo Lee, Victor Hovland and Collin Morikawa before turning professional. The top-25 in Joburg may be the catalyst to future glory in 2021.
If we are to talk links players then ROBERT MACINTYRE, who ties in with quite a few of these, is finally showing the form that was expected of him when he turned professional three years ago. Despite some excellent efforts in his first year at this level, including a tied-sixth at The Open and six further top-10 finishes, it took until mid-November for him to register that first win a few weeks ago in Cyprus.
With his tee-to-green play now back on form (ranked top two in both Cyprus events) and an eye-catching, fast-finishing sixth at Leopard Creek last week (where his scrambling came into great effect), he looks ready to pick up the pace again and challenge strongly next week at the 'big one'.
The Scotsman didn't quite hit the mark through the first two rounds here but was again giving the impression there was more to come and his opening five birdies through five holes on Friday was just that! He stalled slightly after that seven-under front nine but to pick at those less impressive couple of holes is churlish and should the winds arrive he is well equipped to cope.
Having shown some temperament issues earlier in the season, the sure-fire future Open winner (wait and see) looks much more relaxed now he has the burden of winning off his shoulders and he is the one from the pack that looks certain not to shirk the issue if needing to attack down the stretch. He may be too far off the pace to beat a rampant Sullivan but at only three shots off second place and with doubts about much of those in-between he is value to nab a top-five finish.
Paratore and Antione Rozner have shown enough this season to think they will continue to be in contention through the next year but neither have proven themselves in this class and this is simply a case of either playing short or not bothering and appreciate the year we have had, one that could have never been foreseen. For all the moaning about the courses, bubbles et al, it is something of a triumph that we have seen golf virtually every week for the last few months.
Posted at 1545 GMT on 04/12/20
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