Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters, Sunday March 14
1pt e.w. Brandon Stone at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. J.B. Hansen at 14/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Jorge Campillo at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4)
After a hiatus of five weeks and at just the second outing at Education City, exponents of course form over current were rubbing their hands in anticipation - and at the halfway stage of the Qatar they were in clover.
While the likes of defending champion Jorge Campillo and much-fancied George Coetzee were suffering in the strong winds during an extended second day, the halfway leaderboard still contained many of the same names that appeared on the final roll-call 12 months ago. Jeff Winther, leader after 36 holes, eventually finished third last year, with Kalle Samooja, Nino Bertasio and Chris Paisley others who were prominent in both.
Looking deeper, Jack Senior made his way to seventh after 54 holes in 2020, and the vastly experienced Darren Fichardt was eighth at halfway before getting done by a brutal back-nine on both his final two rounds.
Probably the most interesting aspect of these regular European Tour events is spotting the links between the outlier players. It's easy enough to determine where a Lee Westwood or Sergio Garcia might play well but looking at the likes of many of those already mentioned brings many of the tighter, wind-affected courses to mind such as Valderrama, the two Trophee Hassan venues, plus some of those in South Africa and Malaysia.
Winther, currently winless on any professional tour, has form at both the Tshwane and South African Opens, Samooja was runner-up at Crans-sur-Sierre in 2019 and bagged top-10 at Kenya last year, and Nino Bertasio has a brace of top finishes at Valderrama, a top-five at the Maybank (Campillo runner-up) and a top-15 in Branden Grace's most recent SA Open.
As discussed on my own @lostforepod, there's was definite potential for that South Africa link to play out in Doha once more and it was no surprise to hear current leader Fichardt comment: "I always love it here... there’s a huge South African population, it’s a home away from home. You get a lot of Afrikaans, and South Africans supporting you. I love it here."
Despite his multiple wins at home and in this event 18 years ago, Fichardt has never been the most reliable around and on the greens, a facet that will be crucial on Sunday given this wind will continue to play havoc with approach shots. He was impressive in the way he birdied two of the final three holes, especially after dropping three shots through his previous three, but there is something there that suggests he is a tad short at anything below 7/2.
Keeping with the southern hemisphere theme though, his young compatriot BRANDON STONE makes plenty of appeal to be the one to throw down a challenge from a bunched chasing pack.
A multiple winner in his home country, the 27-year-old continues to be on that edge of a breakthrough into the top-100 of the world rankings and, having had his pocket pinched in Oman last season, will want revenge in this part of the world. He has numerous top finishes on tough tracks open to the gusts such as Le Golf National (5th), Dom Pedro (2nd) and Karen (2nd) and, as we saw with that famous final round in Scotland, is dangerous from this sort of position, namely four back and tied for seventh.
So far this week, it's been the flat stick that has kept the Dubai Desert Classic runner-up in the game but with so many doubts surrounding many of those within half-a-dozen of the lead, he looks as convincing as any of the top-15 or so to finally break what seems a long barren spell. After a decent finish at the higher-class Concession course and able to attack the leaders early from off the pace he can make a score and just hope there isn't a Sami Valimaki lurking.
Followers of Ben Coley's pre-event column will be cheering on the vastly experienced Jamie Donaldson and there is little we can add to what has already been said. Rather like a rejuvenated Westwood, this veteran has relaunched his career post-lockdown and there will be little he hasn't experienced.
As Winther and others showed on Saturday, there is a huge advantage for those that have seen it all before when conditions are as difficult as we've seen. If you are on Donaldson at 80/1, there is no need to play at the current price but he enters the final round with an each-way chance, as does fellow Sporting Life selection Nino Bertasio from a little further back.
JB HANSEN is another who looks to have a good chance to gain his second win in the space of six months.
Always a quality ball-striker, the Dane used to suffer at the hands of a very unreliable short game but even then could boast a third-place finish at the Scottish Open (behind Phil Mickelson and Grace) - the event that Stone won five years later although at a different venue. Perusing further we see a runner-up at Le Golf National (Coetzee and Kurt Kitayama just behind) and a place at the Spanish Open, an event traditionally won by those that can play 'proper' courses, all this before breaking through in Joburg.
Leading the greens-in-regulation stats as he does is as significant here as anywhere and while his putting so far has lagged a fair way behind, the fact he's putting for birdie rather than scrambling for par was always likely to see him creep closer to the lead. From three behind and in a share of fourth, he has nothing to fear here and along with Stone is fancied to lay down a serious challenge.
This is as open as any event we have seen over the last five weeks (let me off that one?) but the feeling is that someone with the nous to win will get it done and the likes of Antione Rozner and Callum Shinkwin could easily follow up on recent victories of their own. The Frenchman already has a tremendous recent record in the Middle East and in Andalucia whilst Shinkwin has that win in Cyprus (Samooja and Donaldson his only real challengers) and should've won by the sea in Scotland back in 2017.
At bigger prices though I can't resist JORGE CAMPILLO, who looked completely out of this at halfway having put himself seven off the pace in those nightmare winds, but is now just five behind what might be a vulnerable front-runner. He is well worth backing at what looks a generous price of 50/1 with place payouts for the first four.
The wily Spaniard of course loves it here at Qatar, whatever the course, having backed up his runner-up finish in 2019 with that gutsy play-off win last season, but there is form everywhere that might make him a potential danger to the lead if he can get it going early. Having recorded eight birdies through the first three rounds combined, he ranks high in conversion rate and having got the job done in Morocco and with high finishes at many of the better wind-affected tight tracks may be that sleeper we look for in-running.
The defending champion may at first look a tad too far off the pace to win but three of last year's top-10 were came from 14th or lower, with both Niklas Lemke (third) and Bertasio hitting the frame from eight and nine shots back. Campillo is, of course, a much classier player and I don't think it would surprise anyone were the final two-ball, Fichardt and Jack Senior, to tread water.
For my money, we should be looking at prices akin to those of Kitayama and Fabrizio Zanotti where Campillo is concerned, and the fact he is 10 points bigger and more leads to a must-play in what remains an open and fascinating tournament.
Posted at 1445 GMT on 13/03/21
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