European Tour: Alfred Dunhill Championship betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

4pts win Brandon Stone at 14/1

1.5pts e.w. Adri Arnaus at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Garrick Higgo at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 60/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Julian Suri at 110/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Joel Stalter at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Casey Jarvis at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

It is a huge fortnight for South African golfers, who get the unique opportunity to play an Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek and then an SA Open at Sun City. These two famous courses, both designed by Gary Player, are surely the two most beloved venues in the Rainbow Nation, with Fancourt, Glendower and a handful of others fighting for third place at a distance. Having these events at these courses, back-to-back, is unprecedented.

For some, a desire to make the most of this rare gift might be suffocating, but BRANDON STONE is among the most positive and grounded players in the sport, not just the country, and he has to have a massive chance of winning his second title here at Leopard Creek and fourth on the European Tour.

Last week, Stone returned from a month away to finish fourth at Randpark and it was a performance of great encouragement. Nobody in the field was better from tee-to-green and it was only a quiet week on and around them, plus a mad half-hour in the first round, which cost him the chance to put real pressure on Wilco Nienaber and JB Hansen.

The latter was superb on Sunday, but the match play feel of his head-to-head with Nienaber must surely have helped, and had Stone been a couple closer going into the final round, I suspect he could've forced both into errors far earlier than they eventually came. These ifs, buts and maybes take nothing away from a brave performance from the Dane and a significant one from Nienaber, of course, but the message is Stone played well enough to win.

Perhaps there was a little rust in round one as he carelessly gave away three shots in no time at all, but from there he was outstanding, particularly in a near-flawless third round which saw him climb from mid-leaderboard mediocrity right into the final group. That's another little bonus, having had a competitive sharpener and got the juices flowing while knowing there's plenty left in the tank.

And so we come to Leopard Creek, scene of Stone's tour de force in 2016. Part of a run of six successive South African winners here, his victory was notable for the way he sent Charl Schwartzel packing in round three before storming to a six-shot win. Either side of it he finished inside the top 20, and even last year there were positives as he failed to crack the top 50 – Stone was in fact 10th in strokes-gained tee-to-green but holed absolutely nothing.

Of course, we run the risk that happens again as it was the putter which restricted him to the places at Randpark, but that's a chance worth taking. Stone's preparation is almost identical to when victorious here, in that he preceded that win with a share of second on his return to South Africa, and as with so many of the locals he puts Leopard Creek on a pedestal.

"How could you not be happy to come back here? Let’s be honest, it’s the holy grail of golf in Africa," he said last year, before adding of the course changes made in 2018: "I’ve been out a couple of times already and the course is ridiculously good. The condition this year is simply sublime. Any time you get to this special place is fantastic, and the fact that we get to come for a tournament just makes it better.

"I’ve often said to people back home that I felt like Mr (Johann) Rupert built this course for me, because it seems like every hole I stand on I just love the tee shot and love the way it sets up."

That comfort is demonstrated by the fact Stone has been among the best drivers in the field on every visit and I loved the way he was hitting it off the tee last week. This tougher test should only help given how in control of his ball he appears to be and I see nobody in this field who can be considered a more likely winner.

There's always trepidation involved when getting stuck into one of the market leaders, but Stone merits healthy support. As I said in advance of the Joburg Open he's the big fish here in terms of the South African players, and it's a role he revels in. A slightly better start – it's vital to build a platform here – and he should take all the beating having not only won in 2016, but been third with a round to go on his return in 2018.

There are many reasons to relish an event at Leopard Creek, not least the setting – the course borders Kruger National Park and you'll be hearing a lot about the 'Big Five' during coverage. As for the course, revamped ahead of David Lipsky's 2018 victory and seemingly even tougher for it, it's pleasingly open to all kinds of challenge. A little extra length always helps, and we've had more than one player win the battle off the tee, but there are few more comfortable here than David Drysdale, who is best known for finding fairways and greens at his own pace.

That makes it harder to pinpoint the right type of player in some respects, but quality approach play is always a good starting point and certainly powered Pablo Larrazabal's win last year. Remarkably, the Spaniard went out in 41 while nursing a blistered toe on Sunday, looking beaten at the time, before three birdies over the final four holes saw him land a seriously tenacious victory.

With Alvaro Quiros and Pablo Martin winning this three times between them, Leopard Creek has been a happy hunting ground for the Spaniards on the circuit and ADRI ARNAUS is good enough to add his name to the roll-of-honour.

On the face of it, last week's missed cut at Randpark was disappointing but Arnaus had been off for a while after testing positive for coronavirus after the Italian Open. Of course, Hansen had to withdraw from the very same event after his caddie was struck by the disease, but no two players are the same and we can surely allow for Arnaus making a slow start on his belated return having spent 17 days in isolation.

That's a lot of tournament golf and practice to miss as the season draws towards a close and it also leaves Arnaus with work to do to make the DP World Tour Championship. Given that he's now based in Dubai he'll be extra keen to qualify and he'll presumably want to take care of business as soon as possible, with the option to skip the SA Open in favour of the new Golf in Dubai Championship also there if things go to plan from 58th in the standings.

Friday's 69 at Randpark was much more like it and before coronavirus came knocking, Arnaus had been in excellent form, contending to a point at Wentworth before finishing fifth in Italy. He could and probably should have at least been taking Ross McGowan to extra holes in the latter given a couple of ridiculous mistakes from ideal positions on par-fives and I won't be alone in thinking he's close to putting things together and winning his first European Tour event.

Historically, form in the Middle East has translated well here – largely a weather thing but also some similarities between greens – so his win in the Challenge Tour Grand Final (UAE) bodes well, but the key form line is ninth place on his sole start at Leopard Creek. That came just after he'd graduated and Arnaus had done nothing in his first three starts of the campaign.

I like that he's handled tough conditions particularly well, not least when hitting the frame in the Dubai Desert Classic, and a run of MC-2-15-MC-2-MC-6-MC-MC-4 during his rookie season is further cause for us not to dwell on a missed cut which is so easily excused.

One of the best drivers on the circuit who has been flushing it for most of the year, if Arnaus can yet overcome this bizarre handicap he has on par-fives (should eat them alive, instead throws away shots) he will confirm himself one of the most capable players on the European Tour. In a field like this he rates one of the main dangers and 40/1 is a smashing price.

Although Hansen upstaged Nienaber in the end, remember the latter is only 20 and he's learning fast. He could well gain immediate compensation here but 22/1 doesn't scream value, especially as Leopard Creek is more likely to punish him for misses which are occasionally big.

Had he won the Joburg Open, many of us would've regretted not siding with an awesome talent. Still, his performance did serve as a reminder that when looking through the home players, we ought to be ruthless: typically, the Sunshine Tour regulars struggle to see things through and only the brightest prospects are worth considering, for all it's not always easy to identify exactly who those are. These co-sanctioned events so often do go to a South African, but it's a small, select group, which in theory makes things a little easier.

Right now it includes Christiaan Bezuidenhout who ought to go well enough, Nienaber, Stone and George Coetzee, though I could find no good reason for the latter's absence in Joburg. Given that he's said he was intending to play and couldn't wait to return to Randpark, the fact Coetzee wasn't in the field has to be disconcerting.

Beyond these we have Danie van Tonder, though I'm far from convinced he'll bridge the gap, a veteran Darren Fichardt, Jayden Trey Schaper and GARRICK HIGGO, and the latter is worth another chance having disappointed last week.

Whereas Schaper is still a teenager and may need to pick off a small Sunshine Tour event first, 21-year-old Higgo has won the Open de Portugal and placed in three other events on the European Tour since it returned in June. That gives him a significant edge in terms of experience and with four wins already in a pro career not yet 40 events old, he's proven he has what it takes to see things through.

That's what made last week's effort so disappointing, and yet for the third time in his last five starts he was inside the top 10 in strokes-gained approach. Also strong off the tee, the left-hander simply had a shocker around the greens and while that isn't ideal, when last it happened he went 7-1 across his next two starts having been 47th at the Belfry.

Something similar is surely possible after a share of 61st in Joburg and while a missed cut here in 2019 is another potential negative, he'd been off for four weeks and was making his European Tour debut. Twelve months later he's an established member and he's one more strong performance away from reaching the DP World Tour Championship where he could come up against some of the world's best players.

He'll need to bounce back but is capable of doing so at a course where he played lots of good golf as an amateur, and where his quality long-game can help keep him out of trouble for the most part.

Speaking of trouble, there aren't many courses I can think of where you start the week expecting the winner to make a double-bogey or worse at some stage. Last year, just four of the 71 players who made the cut managed to avoid doing so and it was seven of 73 in 2018, so anyone who does manage to stick to eagles, birdies, pars and bogeys should be right there at the end.

I wonder if this in part explains why ZANDER LOMBARD has been one of the best players of Leopard Creek since it was toughened up. This erratic but enormously talented young South African, who 100 percent is capable of winning on the European Tour, tends to throw a big number in most weeks – is he helped at all by the fact everyone will here?

Whatever the case, Lombard was third in 2018 and seventh last year, and could've won both. Against Lipsky, he closed the gap to just one during the back-nine only for the American to keep on making everything as Lombard ran out of luck, while last year he looked like the one for much of Sunday only to make a closing eight when chasing the eagle he needed – understandable given the nature of the risk-reward 18th hole.

That's quite the course record and crucially, having been a well-backed 25/1 shot last year – about the same price as Stone and with Louis Oosthuizen and Schwartzel in the field – Lombard is now available at a much bigger price, despite underlining his course suitability with another excellent effort. The reason for that is pretty clear: he has played some shocking golf this summer. However, a return home last week sparked immediate improvement and, crucially, it came in the form of quality ball-striking.

So often capable of wild driving, Lombard ranked fifth off the tee at Randpark and 13th with his approaches, putting him up there with Higgo and Stone and the other standout ball-strikers in the field. Only some poor putting and another big number at the eighth hole on Sunday kept him from hitting the frame.

He'll have to maintain it of course but if we rewind to 2019, that's exactly what he did. A fortnight earlier, Lombard had contended at Sun City thanks to a long-game performance almost identical to that of the Joburg Open. Arriving at Leopard Creek buoyed by that and his past experience here, he again hit the ball brilliantly and gave himself another chance to win.

Whether you're interested in taking a much shorter price than last week will depend much on whether you believe that coming back to South Africa can have such a transformative effect on his game. I tend to believe it can and that's seemingly what happened two years ago, when he returned home to end an awful run with fourth on the Sunshine Tour, went out to Hong Kong (67th) and Mauritius (MC) and struggled, then finished 15th in the SA Open and third here.

Having been 15th last week, history could be about to repeat and while I wouldn't have been keen to chance him at anything lower than 50/1, at prices a little bigger than that we're amply compensated for the risks attached to this error-prone type.

Back towards the top of the market and Joost Luiten wouldn't have had to do much more at Randpark, or be a much bigger price, to have also been given another chance. The Dutchman has placed here twice in three attempts, his neat-and-tidy driving and aggressive iron play powering that success, but was undeniably poor in the Joburg Open and hasn't drifted enough to excuse that.

Matthew Jordan is much more convincing in general and it was interesting to see his long-game really click last week. Having made the cut here on both previous visits and improved plenty since the latest of them, he too was of some interest but as with Laurie Canter, a favourite of mine, I couldn't see why they should be shorter than Arnaus and Higgo on this occasion.

Instead I'll chance two classy European Tour winners at three-figure prices, namely JULIAN SURI and JOEL STALTER.

Two years ago, Suri was close to the leaders in a couple of majors and played well in the WGC-Match Play, with a top-10 in the Houston Open also seemingly demonstrating that he'd soon be back in his homeland as a PGA Tour member.

Injury therefore came at just the wrong time and kept him out of the start of 2019, before another setback at the end of it forced his withdrawal from the Open de France, a tournament he'd nearly won a year or so earlier. Having also been forced to miss the start of 2020, he made his belated return in June and it's understandably taken a little while for things to fall back into place.

Whether he's quite there yet remains to be seen, but 21st in the Cyprus Open and 23rd in Joburg are significant steps in the right direction, two rounds of 65 in the former and an opening 66 in the latter reward for his patience. He was in fact fifth at halfway last week and that's the fourth time this summer he's faded from a strong start.

At some stage he will begin to carry his one- and two-round form through to the end of a tournament and here at Leopard Creek, where an American first-time-visitor won last year, there seems to be enough in his favour.

First and foremost, his long-game is returning – Suri was third in strokes-gained off-the-tee in Cyprus and 24th last week. While his approach work was poor at Aphrodite Hills the first time, it was much improved in the following week's showdown, and he again produced positive numbers in Johannesburg as all aspects of his game fired together for the first time in 18 months.

Secondly, he has form at some courses which could correlate quite nicely. One such example is DLF, home of the Indian Open, an event he probably should've won last March. That quirky layout throws up big numbers whether you're at the top of the leaderboard or languishing at the bottom, and it's notable perhaps that Scott Jamieson, Larrazabal, Andrew Johnston and even someone like Carlos Pigem have top-five finishes both there and here.

Dar Es Salaam, home of the Trophee Hassan II where Suri finished second a month after that, also makes sense given both are really difficult. Lipsky was fifth there the year he won here at Leopard Creek, Quiros has been second there, and Pigem again pops up – only at these three layouts has he managed to contend on the European Tour.

Given that Suri has also thrived under difficult conditions in Paris, on a tight and penal course in Hong Kong and has Middle East form in Dubai as well, there are many small signs pointing in his direction. With his game clearly improving, another strong start and this time he might stick around.

Stalter meanwhile looks to have overcome his post-win slump, in itself not surprising given what was a life-changing win in Austria. Stalter is particularly philosophical (his website blog posts are always worth reading) and finally achieving a goal he'd set as a child was probably always going to require some introspection afterwards.

Now though he looks back on track and ready to build on that impressive victory in the Euram Bank Open. He first seemed to turn a corner with a battling second-round 68 to make the cut in elite company at Wentworth, then closed out well in Scotland, before a pair of 66s in Italy saw him finish 22nd in the event won by McGowan.

Heading then to Cyprus, he shot a first-round 65 on his way to 41st and then a second-round 65 to make that tight cut in the Showdown, and across that fortnight he matched Robert MacIntyre when it came to hitting greens, the pair clear. Stalter's strokes-gained stats also have a solid look to them suddenly with his iron play undoubtedly firing, and if he can continue to improve off the tee he can get back into contention.

Crucially, he was 23rd here on his debut and sole visit in 2016, sitting 10th with a round to go. That effort was down to an excellent long-game – third for driving accuracy, ninth in distance, 11th in greens, third in ball-striking – and it may be that he's on the cusp of a similar performance.

Remember his victory in Austria came at a course where he'd enjoyed prior success and having also contended in an SA Open at Glendower, he returns to South Africa with genuine prospects here.

Toby Tree was the other in this price bracket I considered on the back of 20th last week. The young Englishman has done plenty right over the last few months, particularly with his approach play, and has bags of experience in South Africa for all he's yet to deliver here. Then there's Joel Sjoholm, who I've put up twice at 300/1-plus lately, but I can't quite bring myself to stick him with at less than half that, for all he was runner-up to Larrazabal.

Instead I'll throw the minimum stakes at CASEY JARVIS, who is probably far too young (17) and not yet ready for this but is nevertheless worth a small go at 250/1 and upwards and nothing shorter.

Jarvis has been remarkably impressive throughout his junior career, highlights including beating Nienaber by a dozen in 2018 despite being three years younger. He went on to win the SA Amateur, both match play and stroke play, which is a rare feat and underlined his potential. And he won an event on the Big Easy Tour in February 2019 when aged 15.

In recent weeks he's been right behind fellow stud Yurav Premlall in a couple of amateur events and also 10th on the Big Easy Tour, which is a feeder circuit to the Sunshine Tour. Playing on an invite here, he should at least be sharp from a competitive perspective, and his potential is enormous.

Back in January, when he finished 36th in the SA Open just before turning 17, he was second of the 11 amateurs in the field – the first being Schaper, who finished sixth to demonstrate that hitting the money is not beyond the reach of the very brightest young talents.

Having seen Nienaber contend last week, Jarvis is entitled to feel like he's good enough to at least threaten the top 10. After all, he really wasn't far off doing so at the start of the year, and that was before he won the South African Stroke Play Championship by nine and then added the Match Play with an absolute thrashing of Scotland's James Wilson.

Again, this is probably too soon and if you think so, don't back him. The advice here is to speculate at massive odds that, already, this sharp and promising star in the making might be able to sneak a place – hence taking 300/1 with eight of them rather than the 500/1 offered by Unibet and 888sport but with only six.

Posted at 1930 GMT on 23/11/20

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