Honda Classic: Betting preview and tips following first two rounds at PGA National

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Brendan Steele at 10/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

We’re at the halfway stage of the Honda Classic, the first leg of the Florida swing and, as is usually the case, PGA National is living up to its reputation as one of the toughest tests the players face all year.

The man who has fared the best so far and is in pole position through 36 holes is BRENDAN STEELE, and he's worth backing to go on and win with bookmakers seemingly underestimating his chances of doing so.

Steele has crafted rounds of 68 and 67 to date and can count himself unlucky not to already have a new car to show for his first two days' work, after his tee shot on the par-three 15th looked for all the world that it would drop for a hole in one before horseshoeing out of the cup.

Despite a luckless bogey at the last, Steele's five-under total is enough to give him one shot lead at this stage over three players, the English pair of Lee Westwood and Luke Donald and the winner of last year's Wyndham Championship, JT Poston.

A further shot back on three-under we then have US Open champion Gary Woodland alongside Sepp Straka, Nick Watney and Cameron Davis.

While Steele wasn’t a name on too many people’s lips at the start of the week his presence at the top of the leaderboard shouldn’t come as a great surprise for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, when his game is firing on all cylinders the 36-year-old old is known as one of the strongest ball-strikers around, an attribute which is the major key to success around here.

Secondly, the three-time PGA Tour champion produced his best result of his season so far at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January, where he finished second, and that event has a clear correlation to here with Justin Thomas, Ernie Els, Mark Wilson, and Russell Henley having triumphed at both venues in the past.

One other trait that has very much come to the fore over the years here is the prevalence of European raiders on the leaderboard and/or players who could be seen as specialists at the Open Championship, and this is once again the case this year with Westwood and Donald, who are both here on sponsors' invites, in the hunt.

In addition we then find one of Ben Coley’s pre-tournament picks, current Open champion Shane Lowry, and the man who followed him home at Royal Portrush, Tommy Fleetwood, a further two shots back at two-under, putting both in a great position to pounce over the weekend. It's little wonder players so comfortable in the wind have worked their way into the mix.

Completing the group at two-under and within three shots of the lead we have a further four players - Sungjae Im, Charl Schwartzel, Jamie Lovemark and local resident Ritchie Werenski - and with Im also featuring in the pre-tournament selections there's plenty of interest for Sporting Life followers.

So what of Steele’s chances? If we look back over the past decade three players - Keith Mitchell last year, Padraig Harrington in 2015 and Camillo Villegas back in 2010 - held the lead or a share of it at the 36-hole stage before going on to win.

In addition it should be noted that with PGA National being such a tough nut to crack this is not historically a course to play catch-up on and only one winner over the past 10 years, Justin Thomas in 2018, sat outside of the top three at this stage. Furthermore all of these winners sat within three shots of the lead, which suggests we shouldn't be looking too far from the top.

On that basis the omens are certainly decent for Steele and from a positive point of view we can also add the fact that he landed his first PGA Tour title in another tough event, the Valero Texas Open, back in 2011, after holding a share of the lead at halfway.

Steele recently sat tied at the top at the aforementioned Sony Open in January and despite still being in front through 54 holes he was eventually beaten in a play-off for the trophy by Cameron Smith. He was perhaps a little unlucky there, however, having been forced to wait to play his approach to the last as Ryan Palmer took an age up ahead. Steele had looked solid up until that point and is generally reliable in the mix.

Further encouragement for fans of the likeable Californian though can be found in his stats so far this week as he currently sits fifth in strokes-gained off-the-tee, eighth in strokes-gained approach, seventh from tee to green and 12th in putting.

With the experience Steele has under his belt and of course the three PGA Tour titles, he doesn’t strike me as the type who will go away when he is in the groove, particularly during a tough grind like this, which undoubtedly suits him.

Add to that the course and tournament history, which very much favour those at the head of affairs who have the shots in the bank, and I can't escape the conclusion that the layers have underestimated his chances with the general 9/1 on offer or the 10/1 with Ladbrokes and BoyleSports if you can get it, especially with four places still to play for.

The market has a lot of time for players with shots to find, but at this stage the play is to side with the man who has them in hand. Steele should be right there in the mix on Sunday and is worth a bet.

Posted at 0830 GMT on 29/02/20

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