Golf expert Ben Coley is backing Kevin Kisner along with four at much bigger prices for this week's Sony Open.
The first full-field event of the PGA Tour year offers a reminder as to just how competitive top-level golf has become, when you see good-thing of the future Beau Hossler at 250/1 and several proven winners twice that.
But on closer inspection, the Sony Open doesn't appear as deep as might have been expected - despite the fact that Jordan Spieth and defending champion Justin Thomas dominate the betting at 5/1 and 10/1 respectively.
Thomas dazzled here last year, opening with a round of 59 and keeping his foot to the floor to beat world-class players by seven shots and more. It was a performance so brilliant that, in light of what he went onto achieve, 10/1 could look a gift come Sunday.
The key issue is he's without regular caddie Jimmy Johnson, with Phil Mickelson's ex Bones stepping in, but there must be a chance this has been overplayed. Thomas was a point bigger than Spieth last week and now the gap is five; having signed off with a round of 67 to finish within hailing distance of the leaders, who Spieth never really threatened, it would be JT for me on this occasion.
Yet both are opposable. Thomas does have to defend (granted, he's one-from-two so far), his caddie's absence could hurt, and he played so-so golf for much of the season-opener. Spieth, meanwhile, is at last priced prohibitively in the sort of event he does tend to win. The 11-time PGA Tour winner (he's 24 years old) was 10s for the Travelers last summer and 16s for The Open, but at 5/1 can be opposed despite an obvious case.
The antithesis of Kapalua - flat, narrow and tree-lined - there will be no drives of 400-plus yards here at Wailaie Country Club, a short, turning par-70. In fact for many, driver just won't be necessary much of the time. That form across the two Hawaii events can sometimes stack up is largely because those who feature in both are typically very good, and that good golf is good golf; PGA Tour players, when in maximum control, can get it done anywhere.
Plus, both are by the coast, hostage therefore to Hawaiian trade winds, so don't be at all shocked if we've seen the winner already this year. Playing at Kapalua must be an advantage, whichever way you dress it, with Christmas cobwebs dusted off and those competitive juices flowing. And to reiterate: those playing the Tournament of Champions are, collectively, a stronger bunch than those who debut at the Sony.
One way or another, the focus here should be on those who are predisposed to success at Wailaie, which means metronomically reliable ball-strikers - especially off the tee. Those who've shown if not here then at places like Harbour Town, Southwind, Colonial and Copperhead, that a low-scoring test of precision is their bag; that hard-to-hit fairways offer an opportunity, rather than a problem.
Someone, perhaps, like Kevin Kisner.
With the front two in the betting there to be taken on, suddenly this feels like an eminently winnable event. So many of the course specialists are either out of form or out of town and while the case for Marc Leishman is solid, as it is for Brian Harman, I'm not sure either can match Kisner who has the added benefit of being a bigger price.
For starters, of the three he's still the one I'd rather have batting for me on the 72nd hole of a tightly-contested event. Since losing a play-off for the 2015 RBC Heritage, Kisner has looked one of the coolest customers around - even if the mask slipped somewhat under the uniquely intense pressure of a major championship last August.
In the two-and-a-half years which have passed since that watershed moment in the Heritage, he's won twice: once by a distance in a freewheeling, front-running display of class, and then even more impressively to beat Spieth, Jon Rahm and Sean O'Hair by a single shot in the Dean & Deluca. All three courses - Harbour Town, Sea Island and Colonial - represent good form pointers for the Sony Open.
Kisner's record here reflects his career trajectory. For years he struggled, and then something clicked as he opened with a round of 63 en route to fifth in 2016, before going one place better after a closing 65 last year. His skills are made for Waialae, a course where arrow-straight operators like Mark Wilson, David Toms, Paul Goydos and Jerry Kelly have thrived.
Bermuda only serves to enhance his advantage around the greens, as "a good ol' southern boy" who grew up playing on them, and he rates the biggest threat to the front two by some margin in my book. Leishman and Harman have superseded him only because of what happened last week and given the contrast in courses, plus the fact that 17th was a perfectly fair effort from Kisner, I'd prefer to focus on all the other evidence which points towards our man.
Third at the TOUR Championship last September and fourth in his only subsequent start of 2017, there's every chance Kisner is up there throughout this week and he's worthy of a decent each-way bet.
Sticking with the idea that a Kapalua warm-up is advantageous, the two at big prices I like who featured last week are Wesley Bryan and Ryan Armour.
Bryan won at the aforementioned Harbour Town last year, a short, coastal course whose fairways, just like these, are devilishly hard to hit.
That came as no surprise, as what we know about the former YouTube trick-shot star is that his strengths are hitting fairways and holing putts, the sort of old-fashioned game which is best served by a very specific collection of courses on the PGA Tour.
On reflection, Kapalua probably isn't one of them, despite my case to the contrary. In the circumstances, Bryan fared perfectly well on his debut, particularly around the greens, and my hope is he's much better suited to this test despite a narrow missed cut on his debut 12 months ago.
A look through Bryan's other standout efforts certainly offers hope. I find it particularly interesting that he won at Le Triomphe on the Web.com Tour, because three other recent winners of the Sony Open have done likewise, while his other two victories in a brilliant 2016 season came under low-scoring conditions.
All told he has four wins in around 50 events at this sort of level which is some return and, on the fringes of the world's top 64, he has plenty to play for as the golfing calendar looks towards the WGC-Match Play and events which follow it.
Armour, meanwhile, has played the best golf of his career over the last six months.
His performance in dominating the Sanderson Farms Championship was top drawer and, as with his sole success on the Web.com Tour, it came thanks to Bermuda greens which he's grown familiar with since swapping Ohio for South Florida.
The 41-year-old was the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour last season and, as with his predecessors in that category, it's a case of taking advantage when the opportunity to gain from that old-school skill arises. The Sony Open represents one such example and while he missed the cut here on both previous starts, a decade has passed since the latest of them and he's an altogether different player now.
As with Bryan, Armour fared perfectly well on his Kapalua debut and will be much better served by the claustrophobic nature of this course, where players with almost identical skill sets have thrived year upon year.
Others who fit the bill in terms of being accurate and suited to this course are Chez Reavie, whose record in the event has continued to improve, and Blayne Barber, a real Bermuda lover from Florida who has looked good under pressure on the rare occasions he's found himself in with a winning opportunity.
Barber's best efforts include third place in the Honda Classic, played in Palm Beach, and that's an event which has thrown up a couple of winners of the Sony, too. He's a big price at 250/1 or so having offered one or two glimpses towards the end of 2017 that his game might be coming around.
A lengthy shortlist also throws up Ollie Schniederjans, who almost won at a classical course last August and will be off the mark sooner rather than later, and Daniel Berger, another Floridian who just needs to show that he doesn't require tougher conditions to compete.
However, I'm turning to a pair of class acts who might find that this is an ideal place to turn things around, starting with Russell Knox.
After his Ryder Cup snub in 2016, I expected Knox to show what Team Europe missed out on but while that was the case in the immediate aftermath of Hazeltine, right the way through to 11th here a year ago, things went array afterwards.
The Scot has plummeted from a career-high 18th in the Official World Golf Rankings to 80th currently, but finished ninth in the OHL Classic late last year to take an important step in the right direction.
Shortly after that effort, one of several which confirm that this is his sort of track, he told bunkered.co.uk: "My game is extremely close. I’m feeling good for the first time in a while about my putting so I think that’s going to be a nice catalyst to get things going again.
"I feel like that part of my game is definitely improving and, over the past two or three seasons, that’s been my achilles heel.
"Now I’m hitting putts like I know I can, it’s game on again and I’m very optimistic that 2018 is going to be my best year."
One more start resulted in 37th in the RSM Classic which, while hardly setting the world alight, was on balance another forward step given a largely miserable year, and the hope is that he can live up to his word and get back to elite level - starting in Hawaii.
Knox shot 64-67-66-69 here for 11th last year and was 13th in 2015, sitting fifth at halfway. A missed cut in-between was simply the result of an off day which rendered a second-round 65 worthless and it's clear that, after a few years of trying, he's worked the place out.
All of his form points to Wailaie being ideal, one way or another. For instance he's lost play-offs in both the OHL Classic and the Honda, he's shot a round of 59 on the Web.com Tour, and his victory at that level came in 25-under, in an event also won by former Sony Open champion Russell Henley, while runner-up when he won the Travelers was Sony specialist Jerry Kelly and second to him in China was Kisner.
"I love this course," he said last year and Knox, who attended college in Jacksonville, is worth a speculative each-way bet at what could look an extremely generous price.
Finally, I'll give another chance to Luke Donald.
Whenever I tip the former world number one, someone inevitably tells me he's gone at the game and will never win again. They may be right, but if Donald is to rediscover the winning feeling it will surely come at a course like this one and at three-figure prices that's a chance worth taking.
Donald was second here in 2007 and opened with a pair of 65s on his latest visit two years ago, while he's got a deep backlog of form which correlates nicely such as a thousand seconds in the RBC Heritage, a win at Copperhead and various other high-class performances on his favoured Bermuda grass.
Excited to get my 17th year on Tour started next week at The Sony Open!
— Luke Donald (@LukeDonald) January 6, 2018
Following that I’ll be playing:
Farmers Insurance Open
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am
Genesis Open
Honda Classic
👊🏼
We only have to go back three starts for a top-10 finish and he signed off for 2017 on the front foot, shooting 67 to close on the top-30 in Las Vegas, and one of those heartbreaking runner-up finishes at Harbour Town came behind Bryan last April.
There have been some major struggles mixed in with all of this, of course, but perhaps turning 40 in December will have served as a catalyst as this magician around the greens looks for that one final hurrah in what is, don't forget, a Ryder Cup year.
Others here hold more solid credentials but Donald definitely boasts the capacity to come alive at a course which suits him down to the ground.
Finally, a couple of other names to mention, starting with John Oda.
This youngster put local knowledge to use when, as a UNLV graduate, he bagged a top-10 finish in Las Vegas late last year, one of just a handful of PGA Tour starts.
While unable to back it up in Mexico, Oda impressed from the tee in both events and, as a Hawaiian who qualified for this event on Monday, he might just be of interest in some of the sub markets. Oda only missed the cut by two here last year, has enjoyed a fabulous 12 months since and, now professional, could hit the headlines.
Sean O'Hair is another former runner-up who won the QBE Classic alongside Steve Stricker in December and was 11th here last year, Kelly Kraft has some nicely correlating form while Hossler, mentioned at the top of the preview, is an enormous talent who could pop up anywhere.
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Posted at 1230 GMT on 09/01/18.
