Honda Classic betting preview and tips: Webb Simpson fancied to go well

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Webb Simpson at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Graeme McDowell at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

After a change to the schedule which meant a stop-off in Mexico for many of the world's elite, the PGA Tour finally arrives in Florida for a four-week run whose highlight, of course, is the PLAYERS Championship in a fortnight.

Bringing that event forward from its previous May slot makes sense, the switch having been made to accommodate the PGA Championship, but the knock-on effect is a weaker field than we'd perhaps have expected for the Honda Classic at PGA National.

As Golf Channel's Will Gray pithily observed, it's a good job Justin Thomas won the play-off for this title last year, but for which he might have joined former winner Rory McIlroy and the crowd-drawing Tiger Woods in skipping an event which otherwise would make plenty of appeal as an ideal way to prepare for the condensed major season.

PGA National is a fearsome test, particularly the three-hole Bear Trap from 15 to 17, and perhaps that's why the roll of honour is littered with major champions from the obviously elite, like Thomas and Adam Scott, to the more surprising in YE Yang and some of those, like Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els, who have thrived whenever and wherever the wind has blown - hence those Claret Jugs.

Even when this event was played elsewhere in Florida, it tended to produce a champion comfortable when the wind does blow - Open winners Todd Hamilton and Justin Leonard, together with nearly-men Matt Kuchar, Jesper Parnevik and Stuart Appleby - and in that respect it's a shame that this week's forecast suggests calm conditions, enough perhaps to blunt the Bear's teeth.

That being said, this is no shootout even under calm conditions with just five players having registered a score of 10-under or better this decade, so on balance we're likely looking for either a purely elite player - JT, Rickie Fowler, Rory, Scott - or at least one from the second tier who likes to grind, such as Michael Thompson, Russell Henley and, once upon a time, Rory Sabbatini.

Thomas arrives on the back of another solid performance in Mexico, but he didn't play well across the middle part of that tournament and Sunday's fireworks came courtesy of a conscious decision to hit driver basically everywhere. It worked, of course, but he could so easily have found all kinds of trouble and perhaps then we'd have been given a point or two bigger than the general 5/1.

It's not that I think he's under-priced, not given the lack of depth here, but he's just not a betting proposition in a tournament where one foul ball on either the 15th or the 17th tee, on any one of the four days, really can take away all chance of winning.

At five-times the price, it's the classy Webb Simpson who gets my vote having played well on his return to the event last year.

Simpson's previous PGA National form amounted to very little, but it all came at the very start of his career, before he became a major champion, and it's clear now that the conditions of this week's event really do suit.

In particular he'll improve for the switch to bermuda, with the putter having gone cold in Mexico. Last year his best putting displays came here, at the TOUR Championship in Georgia and back in Florida at the PLAYERS, which he dominated from a very early stage.

Returning to the east coast is clearly a huge positive for North Carolina-born Simpson and rounds of 66-72-66-72 here 12 months ago offered great promise, particularly now that he returns buoyed by having ended his winless run and in generally better form.

That he's been seen just three times this year means he's fresh and this will be the first time he's played back-to-back since finishing sixth in the BMW Championship during the FedEx Cup play-offs, so it's reasonable to expect improvement from a course he just doesn't particularly like in Mexico.

Isolate those layouts on which this short-hitting, strong iron player can really compete and you'll see results like third in the RSM Classic, fourth at East Lake, second at the Wyndham, fifth at the Heritage, eighth at the Valspar, fifth here, fourth at the Sony and that win at the PLAYERS, all since the start of 2018, and he was also just about the pick of the US team along with Thomas at Le Golf National.

So far this season Simpson hasn't really played a course you'd call perfect for his game, despite a past runner-up finish in Phoenix. I would suggest that PGA National is his best opportunity by far and in a weak field bar the favourite, with nobody else here prolific, his profile looks outstanding to my eye.

Victory for Simpson would make it three US winners in succession since Scott got the better of Sergio Garcia in 2016, but there's strong evidence that this event is a real opportunity for an overseas player to strike.

Since the start of the decade, almost exactly 50 per cent of top-10 finishers in this event have been born outside the US and there have been champions from Australia, Ireland, Northern Ireland, South Africa and Colombia, with Korea's YE Yang victorious in 2009 and Els before that.

To my mind that speaks to a number factors, including the sheer volume of players who've made Florida their home away from home, but also the nature of golf in this particular part of the US including the wind, the grass and even the style of course.

Compared to the west coast, where Pebble Beach has been dominated by home players and shows an international top-10 ratio of just 25 per cent, Riviera only slightly higher and likewise Torrey Pines, and it's perhaps little wonder we've seen the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Martin Kaymer and Alex Noren go really close here in recent years.

Noren of course made the shortlist - last week's selections are on a real roll at present - but I didn't see much to be positive about in Mexico and the net is cast wider to Byeong Hun An.

In some respects the Korean is frustrating, because it's approaching four years since he won the BMW PGA Championship as a European Tour rookie and, ten years on from his US Amateur success, he remains to some extent an unfulfilled talent.

But he's also been unfortunate, losing a play-off at the Memorial last year as he had done in Louisiana in 2016, and the first of those helps point towards a real affinity for Jack Nicklaus-designed courses like PGA National.

As well as finishing second to Bryson DeChambeau at Muirfield Village, An was second to Dustin Johnson at Glen Abbey, while further back he's been third at Lake Malaren, won and finished eighth at Bears Best Cheonga and taken seventh at Harbour Town, which Nicklaus was involved in to a lesser extent with Pete Dye.

Perhaps it shouldn't have surprised us that he took to PGA National last year, then, finishing fifth thanks to an excellent display of ball-striking and one of his best putting displays of the season, and with that spin behind him there's every chance he can contend once more.

An, who counts Yang's 2009 major success as a key confidence booster as his own amateur career began to blossom, threw in a third-round 64 in Mexico last week to hint at what he can do when the putter does fire and the hope is the switch to bermuda increases the possibility of it doing so for more than 18 holes.

As a Florida resident for many years now, who like so many practices at Lake Nona, this is something of a home game and one of the hardest workers on the circuit can gain reward for his consistency at a tournament he'd dearly love to win, a decade on from Yang's victory here.

The mention of junior tournaments tends to bring out the odd critic, which I understand perfectly, but those who've built up confidence around a course like this have to be at an advantage - so Emiliano Grillo gets the benefit of the doubt.

Go back through the PDF files on the website of the Polo Junior Golf Classic and you'll see that Morgan Hoffmann once beat his friend Rickie Fowler in the match play final at PGA National, and a decade later they finished in the reverse order - Fowler first, Hoffmann second - in the Honda Classic.

Grillo, who finished first in the stroke play section three times and played plenty well enough in the match play, could be the latest to demonstrate the benefits of getting to know the Bear Trap - having finished eighth last year, he's already done so to some extent.

At 40/1, he'd perhaps look short enough unless you happen, like me, to be a Grillo apologist. I remain stubborn in my belief that if he can get back that putting consistency he showed through last spring, he can become a regular winner on the PGA Tour and a genuinely world-class player capable of contending for majors.

He has plenty to prove on the latter point, but this outstanding ball-striker could well grind his way to succeeding Angel Cabrera in time and victory at PGA National would go a long way towards making that step up.

Grillo disappointed in Mexico but he's a moody type who might not have enjoyed the altitude and the putting surfaces, whereas returning to his adopted home state there should be no excuses, particularly at a course he says he'd gladly play every single week of the year.

So far he's improved from a debut 74th to 43rd and then eighth last year, putting much better than he has been of late, and I would expect this to boil down to just how much he can eke out of the flat stick. If he produces a positive strokes-gained putting figure I expect him to contend and at 40/1 that's a chance I'm willing to take.

Next on the list is Graeme McDowell, who has been on the radar for this tournament for a good while now having gone a long way towards justifying a speculative bet at Pebble Beach, where he eventually settled for 18th place on his first start of the year.

That performance followed on from 11th in the RSM Classic, in between which he partnered Grillo to finish second in the QBE Classic here in Florida, and the signs are that the 2018 Ryder Cup vice captain has a little more to give on the golf course.

He certainly has the incentive, as the US Open returns to Pebble Beach this year, scene of his finest hour, before the Open Championship is held in his hometown of Portrush, a momentous occasion for golf in Northern Ireland and one McDowell will be desperate to feature in.

As things stand, he'll need to win somewhere or climb 200 places in the world rankings in a short space of time unless he's to come through qualifying, and with his 40th birthday also on the horizon the message from me is that McDowell might be the most motivated player in the sport for the next few months.

Putting a value on that is next to impossible, but McDowell's career has been built on tenacity, desire and, of course, great skill, and there is a chance he has it within him to find another PGA Tour win in the nick of time - just like Ian Poulter did last spring.

McDowell has an exceptional record here at PGA National, where he's bagged four top-10 finishes in nine starts and would've had a fifth but for a poor final round on his first visit. It's just two years since he finished a solid 14th and he returns in much better form than was the case in 2018, when he limped to a missed cut.

"I've always enjoyed this golf course," he said. "I think it rewards accuracy off the tee, good, aggressive iron play at times, and I'd love an opportunity to win this weekend coming down those last four holes, because they get your attention.

"Whoever wins this weekend and whoever has won this event at this venue has to hit a few shots coming down the stretch. It's never over till it's over here at this great event."

McDowell continues to hit the ball well even if he failed to get anything going in Puerto Rico and he's one of just five players in the field who can boast an under-par scoring average at the course, of those who've played this event at least three times. His 69.91 is 0.02 better than Fowler, with Thomas registering 69.58, Luke List 69.79, and Garcia the only other to dip below 70 with his 69.97.

Of course, McDowell has built this figure over a decade and it's easy to argue he's not the player he was, but there have been enough signs to suggest he might be getting back there. It's just a shame the wind is down but he'll still relish the challenge that lies ahead and rates a fascinating contender.

Straight-hitting Kramer Hickok has started to show a little more over the last couple of weeks having graduated through the Web.com Tour with a tall reputation, a comment which also applies to Sam Burns, the big-hitting kid who outscored Tiger here for eighth place on his tournament debut.

Both are on the wider radar along with CT Pan, who finished inside the top 20 last year despite putting horribly, and Patton Kizzire, who played well enough on his first two starts in the event and then admitted to being as nervous as he'd ever been when grouped with Woods last year, able to make just one birdie through 36 holes before packing his bags.

Adam Schenk stayed on well in Puerto Rico and looks like he's getting there gradually, so having been third in a junior event here and inside the top-30 on his sole pro visit, he's a 200/1 chance worth a second glance, while I did consider putting Florida resident Joey Garber up for a top-20 finish.

Garber shot a pair of 63s to come through pre-qualifying and Monday qualifying here in 2017, and while missing the cut he did open with a round of 67. Last week's top-10 finish in Puerto Rico sits second only to a win in North Carolina in terms of career achievements and it's not inconceivable that he could build on it.

However, the final spot in the staking plan is reserved for the superbly talented Joaquin Niemann.

This young Chilean was the talk of the Tour after earning his card with four top-10 finishes in his first eight professional starts, and he played well for the rest of 2018, making every cut and adding another top-10 in Las Vegas.

He's out to fancy prices now because it's been a slow start to 2019, but he's really struggled with the putter and I managed to dig out a translated quote from his amateur days in which he said he prefers to putt on bermuda.

That's enough for me to hope he's able to turn things around on the greens having hit the ball really well for 44th at Riviera a couple of weeks ago, and the fact he's played a lot of golf in Florida - where he had intended to go to college - is another little positive.

With international players having gone so well here and his sixth place at the Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village catching the eye, he's a 150/1 shot who could surprise a few and, unlike most of the outsiders on my shortlist, I've no doubt he has what it takes to win at this level. In fact it's almost inevitable that he does.

Posted at 1330 GMT on 26/02/19