Martin Mathews looks ahead to the final round of a wide-open Sanderson Farms Championship, where Brandt Snedeker rates the value play.
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2pts e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 9/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
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In the six years since it landed at the Country Club of Jackson, the Sanderson Farms Championship has proved a tough event to get a handle on - a fact underlined by an eclectic roll of honour which most recently includes Sebastian Munoz, Cameron Champ and Ryan Armour, three players cut from three different cloths.
This year once again has proven a puzzle, as the ‘talking horses’ from the beginning of the week - Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Doc Redman, and others - have generally struggled and, in an event that has unearthed exclusively first-time winners in the past, through 54 holes we are left with a leaderboard that is littered with classy veterans with multiple titles to their names.
Topping that list and holding a share of the 54-hole lead is Sergio Garcia, who is making his debut in the tournament this week and has struck the ball superbly to play his way into contention for the first time since he turned 40 at the start of the year.
A ten-time winner on the PGA Tour to go with his 16 wins on the European circuit, Garcia arrived in Mississippi struggling for form, with two missed cuts to start the new season and nothing better than 32nd in his last seven starts.
This week however, having decided to add the event to his schedule after falling out of the world's top 50 for the first time since 2011, things have clicked for the Spaniard, and a superb tee-to-green performance has seen him gain over 10 shots on the field so far.
On the greens Garcia has, as is regularly the case, not been as impressive, ranking 37th for the week in an event which has been won exclusively by those ranking much higher. Garcia has made headlines with a technique which has him closing his eyes, something which he claims he did when victorious at Augusta, and whether it's helping or not he's holed enough to be favourite with 18 holes to play.
Sharing the lead with Garcia are one-time PGA Tour champion JT Poston, and Australian youngster Cameron Davis.
Poston recorded his lone victory to date at last year's Wyndham Championship, where he memorably went 72 holes bogey free, and is clearly comfortable on the Championship Bermuda greens in play this week, which mirror those found at Sedgefield. Having holed a clutch 12ft par putt on the 18th on Saturday he will fancy his chances of adding a second tour title.
Davis meanwhile, having struggled on Friday, blitzed his way through the field on Saturday with a best-of-the-week 63 and those who took Ben Coley’s pre-tournament advice to jump on board the 25-year-old from Sydney will be keeping everything crossed for more of the same on Sunday and for the hugely talented Aussie to land his maiden tour title.
It is clear from the performance of past winners that this tournament is won and lost on the greens, with the last four winners all ranking inside the top five in strokes-gained-putting for the week, and with the surfaces running at over 13 on the stimpmeter it is easy to see why.
From that point of view, despite Garcia’s strong tee-to-green performance, if I was looking to back one of the three co-leaders I would be more inclined to side with Poston or Davis, who have performed much better than the Spaniard with the flat stick. Poston is generally the more reliable of the two and with Davis having to back up a low one, he would get my vote.
However, there's much more to this than the leading trio and the value play at 8/1 generally or 9/1 in a couple of places is BRANDT SNEDEKER.
Like Garcia and Poston, Snedeker is another former winner of the Wyndham Championship in the hunt this week (definitely one for the notebook going forward) having won there in 2018, and although he has been struggling of late he has come to life on the greens in that familiar way of his.
A nine-time PGA Tour winner, Snedeker has tended to be more comfortable when chasing over the years and the Tennessee native, who despite his struggles ranked 21st on tour in round four scoring last season, looks ideally positioned to mount a charge from the penultimate group in an event which has been kind to those either in the lead or very close to it.
Furthermore, with that massive dollop of hindsight that often miraculously appears on a Sunday morning, a win for Sneds this week would not only give us the connection to the championship Bermuda greens of Sedgefield but would also tick the box of winners of this event having a connection to ‘southern states’ in the US, particularly those that border Mississippi, and he would be the fourth specifically with Tennessee connections to lift the trophy in the past 10 years.
With 13 players within four shots of the lead going in to Sunday including the impressive Kristoffer Ventura who sits alongside Snedeker on 13-under, and three players a further shot back on 12-under including a back-to form-Aaron Wise, there are of course all kinds of permutations and after Davis showed what is possible on Saturday you certainly can’t rule out anyone as far as 10-under or perhaps even nine.
That said the players at the very top of the leaderboard are an accomplished bunch, and one of them ought to be up to firing the mid-60s round which will do the job. At the prices, Snedeker is worth supporting to do just that.
Posted at 0935 BST on 04/10/20
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