Ben Coley previews the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, where Charley Hoffman and Byeong Hun An feature in the staking plan.
Golf is the most unpredictable sport of them all - this is part of what makes it the most brilliant - but even the strangest results tend to be retrospectively explainable.
This season, still very much in its infancy remember, whether you've backed winners or not the clues were there. Justin Thomas confirmed that he remains very good; Pat Perez secured yet another early-season success, this time on the back of his best sustained stretch of golf; Brendan Steele defended his title. Even last week's champion, the excellent Ryan Armour, had been playing good golf ever since his charge at the Wyndham Championship two months prior.
But every once in a while, something strange happens which is harder to justify, even after the event. For 'every once in a while', see 'every year in Las Vegas since Webb Simpson won in 2013', the end of a series of classy and predictable champions who rarely looked like doing anything but taking this title.
Ben Martin wasn't winning totally out of turn when he succeeded Simpson in 2014, but he'd missed the cut on both previous visits to TPC Summerlin and finished second-to-last on his previous start, shooting 78-79. Then, Smylie Kaufman, a hitherto untested rookie, sent off a big price despite finishing 10th a week earlier, shot a closing 61 for his first PGA Tour win on just his fourth PGA Tour start.
And so when Rod Pampling, winless in over a decade at this level and recently turned 47 years old, got the better of future major winner Brooks Koepka with a tenacious Sunday display last year, perhaps the clue was there; perhaps ignoring all the usual measures, hints and glimmers... perhaps that's the key to the Shriners. Perhaps, here on the fringes of the world's gambling capital, the best course of action is to roll the dice.
I'd rather do that than back tournament favourite Tony Finau, the Californian with a film-star jaw who has played exceptionally for months now. He's got form here, having contended on his first visit and averaged just a shade over 68 in 12 rounds, but isn't the type of player to row in with at 16/1. Not in this, a strong enough field; not in this, an event where Pampling defied odds of 500/1.
That's not to say Finau doesn't have an outstanding chance and the same goes for Patrick Cantlay, who picked up where he left off last time. A better long-term prospect even than Finau, this youngster is going to win soon enough but also arrives from China where he played well in the WGC-HSBC Champions. Jet-lag and a first look at this golf course in competition isn't a combination I like.
Instead, it might pay to stick with Byeong Hun An after he finished T11 in the CJ Cup a fortnight ago.
That display followed on from 21st in Italy as the Korean works his way back into the sort of form which took him to a riotous victory in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, when it looked like a star had been born. Having only just turned 26, it's fair to say there's plenty of time yet for this formerly outstanding amateur and the signs are that he could strike again before the year is out.
Key to backing An here is his desert record. He's been inside the top-six in Abu Dhabi, at both European Tour stops in Dubai and again in Qatar, and while you might wonder whether that form really transfers to the US, note that he led through 54 holes in the Arizona desert in February where he eventually settled for sixth.
While he made one too many mistakes on home soil last time - An made two triple-bogeys in the final round and three doubles across the first two days - he did lead the field in birdies and, at an event where 20-under or better has been required in six of the last seven renewals, that's another key pointer towards his prospects here.
The hope is that An finds it easier to avoid ruinous mistakes at Summerlin - that certainly should be the case - and at anything around the 40/1 mark he looks worth a bet to demonstrate that the conditions in Vegas suit him to a tee.
Local residents Ryan Moore and Kevin Na have put their course knowledge to use to win this title, Summerlin being the course of choice for just about any top-class golfer basing themselves in Las Vegas, and perhaps it's the year that Charley Hoffman follows suit.
Hoffman's record in the event is hit and miss, more of the latter in truth, but he's still managed three top-six finishes and there's little doubt that low-scoring conditions such as these bring out his best.
As for what makes this particular renewal the one for Hoffman, there are a couple of reasons. First and foremost he's been in superb form virtually all year, going close a number of times to secure a Presidents Cup debut, where he played well despite losing his singles match. Hoffman also managed his best major finish at the US Open and his best WGC finish at Firestone, while of course leading the Masters throughout the first day and a half.
He's been off since the Presidents Cup, but his last good effort here - fourth place in 2013 - came off a similar gap and there are no real concerns in terms of rust, given that he's won early in the season twice before in his career.
The second reason for an improved effort, having missed the cut at Summerlin three years running, is that Hoffman is pledging every penny he earns this week to the victims of last month's terror attack in Las Vegas. Hoffman is from San Diego, but he went to college at UNLV, lives in Vegas, and very much calls it home. There has to be a chance that his selfless commitment to the cause provokes improvement at a course which does suit when his mind is on the job.
Las Vegas native A.J. McInerney will make his PGA TOUR debut at @ShrinersOpen after surviving the Vegas shooting.https://t.co/Hh3XVILaNj pic.twitter.com/qamGOsAMAX
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 30, 2017
In the past, Hoffman has simply found it difficult to balance responsibilities at an event he as good as hosts. Perhaps he enjoys himself a little too much, and sees this more as an opportunity to spend some time with friends and family rather than an event of significance. If that does change - if he does go out there to win the event for his adopted hometown - then he's a big price at 33/1.
Remember, Hoffman is one of just two US Presidents Cup players in this field. He might not be the most prolific, but he has won twice in the last couple of seasons and has been a regular contender in much better fields for a long time now. A proven birdie-maker - he was 17th on the PGA Tour last season, just behind Finau - the 40-year-old has to be worth chancing given the circumstances.
Regular readers won't be surprised that I like the chances of Luke List, but with one less par-five to go at around this par 71, plus the fact he's into the same price as some multiple winners having been significantly bigger in Korea, he's left out. List was disappointing when holding the halfway lead last time and I'm not prepared to forgive and forget on this occasion.
Instead, Jamie Lovemark gets the vote at a slightly bigger price.
A player with a very similar profile to List, Lovemark has twice gone close in the desert, first back in 2009 when beaten in a play-off on his fourth PGA Tour start as a pro, and then when contending for the CareerBuilder Challenge last January.
Yes, there's a big gap inbetween those events but Lovemark's career has been hit hard by fitness problems which, gladly, appear to be a thing of the past. Like List, then, he's a player who will expect to challenge for titles this season and perhaps he can start doing so here.
Lovemark struck the ball really well in Korea last time, finishing fifth in the CJ Cup, and is another who should be better suited by this altogether more straightforward test. He finished 13th here in 2015, an effort which reads much better when you consider that he was three-over through three holes of the event. From there he shot 14-under in the trickiest renewal of recent times, won in 16-under by big-hitting Kaufman.
Last year, Lovemark missed the cut but he did so by one shot and carded a good second-round 67, so the signs are that the course suits and so it should. Born in neighbouring California, he can build on a top-five behind Thomas last time out and contend for this title.
For once my shortlist for this event was not altogether long, and it's three outsiders who complete the staking plan with the fourth, Sam Burns, reluctantly left out. He was sixth in the Barracuda on his PGA Tour debut and that event, also played in Nevada, is a good guide to this one. Watch for this top young talent, unfortunate to be left out of the US Walker Cup side earlier this summer and friends with the aforementioned Kaufman.
I'll stick with the slightly more proven credentials of Aaron Wise on this occasion, however.
One of the potential stars among the latest batch of Web.com graduates, Wise was 10th in this event last year, driving it brilliantly and ranking fifth for strokes-gained: approach to demonstrate that his attacking talents are suited to the course. The winner, Pampling, ranked second.
Since then, Wise has dropped down to the second tier and romped to his first victory, shooting 62-62 across the first two rounds and winning by five, while he was third for birdies in last week's Sanderson Farms to further underline that he's got some incredibly low numbers in his arsenal.
Wise is also a Vegas resident, at least for part of the year, and his coach Jeff Smith is the professional at TPC Summerlin. That must surely have been a factor in last year's effort and I was a little surprised to see him quoted at a three-figure price having taken his game to another level in the intervening 12 months.
Patton Kizzire's course form is better still, as he was second to Kaufman here a couple of years ago, his first start as a PGA Tour member.
Kizzire ranked eighth in greens despite missing more than half the fairways that year and it just goes to show that his lack of accuracy off the tee just isn't punished at Summerlin, a resort course with no rough to speak of, as it can be elsewhere.
When that's the case, one of the best putters on the circuit is able to shine and we saw something similar last week with a back-to-form 10th in Mississippi, a bona fide putting contest the like of which he confessed to loving when interviewed here in 2015.
Kizzire arrived on the PGA Tour with a tall reputation, one for being a pure winner who can hold his own in a dogfight, and has gone close to proving that on a couple of occasions. Like last week, he's returning to a course we know he can perform at and that makes him and his magic wand a threat.
Finally, I'm siding with another big-hitter from California - Brandon Hagy.
He's wowed his peers since graduating to this level with some of the most impressive power out there, despite being under six feet tall - think Rory McIlroy rather than Dustin Johnson.
While not everything, power is a definite asset here and Hagy arrives for his debut having returned to form with a top-20 finish on a far less suitable layout last week.
Earlier this summer he contended in Canada, a course made for big hitters, before a top-20 finish in Reno during which he confessed to loving this part of the world, having spent his youth travelling out of California in search of the mountains of Nevada.
Now, we're hardly up in the sky here in a Reno sense but he'll still feel comfortable and this improving youngster looks sure to be suited to Summerlin. With that in mind he too is worth a bet.
Recommended bets: Shriners Open
1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 45/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - loves desert golf and can show it here
Posted at 0930 GMT on 31/10/17.
