Ben Coley previews the Shell Houston Open, where Phil Mickelson is expected to contend.
Recommended bets:
2pts e.w. Phil Mickelson at 25/1 - loves it here and full of confidence
1pt e.w. Billy Horschel at 50/1 - runner-up on his last visit; thrives in Texas
1pt e.w. Tony Finau at 45/1 - frustrated to sit out last week but can make up for it
1pt e.w. Ryan Palmer at 150/1 - plays well in his home state and better last time
1pt e.w. Danny Lee at 200/1 - adopted Texan has hinted at a return to form
The annual Augusta curtain-raiser is not, in fact, next Wednesday's cursed par-three tournament. No, it's the Shell Houston Open, where Jordan Spieth aims to tidy up his preparations for the season's first major, which is now just days away.
Unsurprisingly, Dustin Johnson has withdrawn from the event following his third victory in as many starts and a gruelling one at that. He prefers to play the week before a major, but knows this time around that his game really doesn't need work, and rest would be much more beneficial.
For Spieth, it's a case of why change the formula? He's played here prior to each of his three Masters appearances and, having yet to finish worse than second at Augusta, it works. Plus, he played just three matches last week and, while pleased with his progress, will undoubtedly feel like there's still work to be done before his date with the demons.
Such is the strength of this week's field, even without DJ, that Spieth is only a point or so shorter in the market here than he is for the Masters. On the one hand, the field in Houston is larger and there are therefore more dangers. On the other, while undeniably strong it does not feature numbers one, two and three in the world rankings, nor 2017 breakouts Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas.
On balance I find it easier to overlook Spieth and most of the market leaders for this week rather than next, and that's largely due to the SHO's recent history.
This event has been played one week prior to the Masters since 2007, with the exception of 2013, and on several occasions it's thrown up a surprise, such as last year when Jim Herman beat Henrik Stenson by one shot in the type of dramatic conclusion the event has become known for.
Spieth also came up one short, losing a play-off in 2015, while a year earlier it was Matt Kuchar who somehow conspired to do so, first dunking his approach to 18 into the water before watching on as Australia's Matt Jones chipped in to take the title via a play-off.
While the 2013 renewal was a fortnight prior to Augusta, it was still the final port of call for most of the big names in the field and they were to a man outdone by DA Points. In 2008, it was Johnson Wagner and his local connections which upset the apple cart and while Paul Casey, Anthony Kim, Hunter Mahan and Phil Mickelson represent more obvious champions, it's pretty clear that this event has been somewhat hard to predict.
Of those mentioned, Stenson and Mickelson look sure to play well and it was interesting to note the latter's comments in last week's Match Play, which convince me that he's worth having on-side despite Houston's in-built volatility.
When asked about Augusta, Mickelson was keen to stress that he has another event to play first and, considering how confident he's become in his game of late, he expects to contend.
Given that his record since winning this in 2011 shows an unbroken sequence of top-20 finishes, among which is a 36-hole lead and a grand total of zero over-par rounds, I do too and he goes in the staking plan.
Some would understandably point to Mickelson's winless run, which stretches back to the 2013 Open Championship, as a negative and there's substance to that. However, the other side of the argument is that by virtually every other measure he's playing close to his best at present and, unlike some, he'll be motivated to win regardless of the looming major championship.
Part of the reason Mickelson loves this event is that Golf Club of Houston is set up to mimic Augusta, which means limited rough, dramatic, closely-mown run-off areas and slick, pure greens, and his comfort level across both courses is such that he's a strong fancy to go really close.
At first in strokes-gained around the green and fifth in strokes-gained putting, Mickelson's short-game is razor-sharp right now and that means there's no need to experiment. He can focus on getting in the mix, the one department in which he might be rusty, and having made every cut this season I expect him to do just that.
It may be that one or two wayward drives cost him eventually but Mickelson was brilliant for much of the Match Play last week on a more penal course, losing only to an inspired Bill Haas, and the strength of this field makes him a backable price.
Away from Mickelson and the other obviously strong contenders, it's worth remembering that there is a Masters place up for grabs here and while some will see that as an unnecessary burden, one only has to look at Herman, Jones, Points and Wagner to see that some unspectacular players have been inspired to grab this last opportunity.
There are any number of candidates looking to do so but the best of them looks to be Billy Horschel, about whom 50/1 seems a good price.
For starters, as mentioned more than once of late, he's playing really well. Horschel was fourth at the Honda, despite a closing bogey, and put a blip at the Valspar behind him by finishing 13th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last time out.
On both occasions it was Horschel's customarily reliable long-game which provided the foundation, but there was also definite improvement around the greens at Bay Hill, where he ranked second for scrambling and 16th in strokes-gained putting.
It's the putter which dictates whether Horschel properly contends, most of the time at least, because he is so reliable from tee-to-green. And the good news here is that as well as rolling it better at the API, his last appearance in the Shell Houston Open (2013) saw him lead the entire field in putting on his way to a share of second.
That of course came before he'd won an event on the PGA Tour and showed that the carrot of a Masters place can in fact trigger an upturn in performance levels. Horschel arrived in Texas without any recent form to speak of, yet followed a runner-up finish here with third in the Valero Texas Open, just missing out on an Augusta invitation.
He's not played this event since, because he hasn't had to - Horschel earned his place in the Masters in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and performed with some promise. But here we are in 2017 and he needs to win to get in, something which for some players would represent a stumbling block. For someone as tough as Horschel, it represents motivation.
Further encouragement can be taken from his overall record in Texas, which includes four top-five finishes in his last six visits, and if the putter stays hot I expect him to be up around the top of the leaderboard throughout.
Another candidate with a similar profile is Tony Finau, who will have been frustrated to miss out on a Match Play start last week as first reserve, even more so given that three players withdrew early on.
Finau chose to sit and wait in Austin rather than defend his Puerto Rico Open title but now must win this to get into the Masters, an event he'll be itching to play for the first time given how obviously suited he is to it, and how well he's performed in the other three majors.
While his finishing positions don't look all that impressive, in two starts and six rounds here he's broken 70 on four occasions, and last year's missed cut can at least in part be put down to the fact that he'd won just days earlier in Puerto Rico.
The course isn't made solely for the bomber, but JB Holmes has lost a play-off here, Phil always plays it well, and as a reasonably long par-72 it does set up well for big hitters like Finau if they can stay out of trouble.
Given that Finau was second in greens in regulation at the Valspar and first at the Arnold Palmer, the latter played on a course lined by hazards as is this one, the long-game appears in shape to avoid disaster and only slight improvement with the putter - which has let him down often this year - is needed.
There's still every indication that Finau can properly establish himself as a world-class talent and he's got enough about him to stick around and potentially add his name to the list of Augusta invites.
I'm sorely tempted by Kuchar at 50/1, given that he should've won here, has two more top-10s to go with that second place, and now has on the bag a man who won this event alongside Mahan in John Wood.
However, it's hard to argue that he's at his best right now and while the odds account for that - he'd have been half the price had he been contending as often as he once did - they're not quite tempting enough.
The same can be said for 66/1 quotes about Rafa Cabrera Bello, who shot 68-65 for fourth here a year ago and has hit the frame twice on the PGA Tour from just a handful of attempts.
You're almost guaranteed a run for your money with the affable Spaniard, who hasn't missed a cut since last May, but one red-hot weekend is far from conclusive proof that he's in love with this course and he's reluctantly left out.
Instead, I'm keen to further explore the idea that having ties with the event and its organisers might unearth a big-priced winner, as it has in the past.
The standout option here is Ryan Palmer, a proud Texan who, while yet to win in his home state, has so often raised his game, especially so as he matures.
Palmer has six top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts in Texas, including when seventh here in 2014, and more than most he'd love to land this title in the final year of Shell sponsorship.
Indeed, the 40-year-old recently tweeted a picture from his junior days, in which he's sporting a Shell Houston Open cap, and would be a fitting winner of the event as he too aims to secure a Masters return.
But while there's merit in the sentimental argument - just ask former champion and runner-up Wagner - there's also substance in Palmer's recent play.
It's been a difficult time for him, with his wife currently receiving treatment for a serious illness, but Palmer says he's found respite on the course and that something clicked with the putter at Riviera two starts ago.
Last time out, he sat second at halfway thanks to a 66-65 opening at the Honda Classic, where from tee-to-green he was excellent, and the hope is he's since continued to work hard with the putting stroke and is able to piece things together.
For a player of proven class with all the relevant local ties, who has shown that playing in his home state and close to his college is typically the catalyst for improved golf, 150/1 looks well worth taking.
Finally, while Meen-whee Kim's return to form last week came at just the right time given the way he's caught the eye here before, the more proven credentials of Danny Lee are preferred.
This New Zealander was so disappointed with how he played last year that he took a prolonged time away from the clubs and some encouraging signs lately suggest he isn't far away from validating that decision.
Last week's performance in Puerto Rico was a little disappointing in some respects, given that he'd put together successive top-25 finishes in much deeper fields previously, but it looks like Lee just didn't get anything going on the greens and it's easy to give him the benefit of the doubt.
On his last start in this event, Lee missed the cut but a second-round 66 contained eight birdies and just one mistake, a costly double-bogey. Just two players in the field bettered his Friday score and he was very close to undoing the damage of round one.
His only other visit saw him sit on the fringes of contention throughout when searching for form, eventually finishing 36th, so there's enough to suggest that he can take another step forward in his adopted home state of Texas, where he's won already courtesy of the Web.com Tour.
Lee's last start in a high-profile event saw him close with a bogey-free 67 in the Arnold Palmer before ranking eighth for GIR in Puerto Rico and he's worth a small each-way bet to build on some low-key promise and win his second title.
Finally, a mention to Kyle Reifers, who has been 11th and seventh on his last two starts in this event and was right in there battling for the title in Puerto Rico on Sunday.
Prior to that he'd shown nothing, which is the decisive factor when it comes to leaving him out this week, but watch out for him early on with a view to getting on board if he does pick up where he left off.
Further afield, he's a former caddie at Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial Tournament, so if the game keeps moving in the right direction approaching summer could be one to watch there.
Posted at 1925 BST on 27/03/17.
Sky Bet specials
Sky Bet are now offering a number of specials relating to our golf selections.
They offer 4/1 that all five Houston Open tips make the cut, and 200/1 that they all finish T20 or better.
It's 9/1 that any one of the five wins the event, while any two to make the top-five - including ties - is an 18/1 chance.
