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Luke List: Ready to make his mark

Free betting tips: Ben Coley's Safeway Open preview

Golf

Mon October 09, 2017 · 7y ago

Our golf tipster Ben Coley bids to kick off the new PGA Tour season with a bang as he previews the Safeway Open.

The transition from one to the next may be all too swift, but there can be little doubt that the beginning of a new season - whenever that is - offers PGA Tour professionals a chance to wipe the slate clean should they feel the need to.

Those who have recently earned a card, either by clinging on or working their way up, can reset their targets now that they're able to map out a schedule, while the few who arrive here on the back of a really successful run might still be wise to draw a line under things and start again.

Results in the Safeway Open certainly suggest that while throwing the form book out of the window may be a little too reckless, we punters definitely need to at least consider the possibility that what happened towards the end of the '2017' season may be rendered less relevant by the beginning of a new one.

Brendan Steele was hardly winning out of turn a year ago, as a classy local whose bold-driving game seems suited to this week's host venue, but he was not in obviously good form. Neither was runner-up Patton Kizzire, who had gone 53-MC-MC since the PGA Championship, yet it was clear throughout the back-nine that one of the two would be winning the first silverware of the season.

In 2015, Emiliano Grillo absolutely was in-form, but his victory a fortnight earlier had come on the Web.com Tour. Runner-up Kevin Na had been going through the motions a little throughout the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Jason Bohn had played poorly two weeks in succession and Justin Thomas was not producing anything close to the results we've since grown used to. Tyrone van Aswegen filled out the frame and he, too, would've been somewhat hard to find.

And in 2014, the first time the event came to Silverado Country Club in Napa Valley, Sang-moon Bae defied a miserable run of three missed cuts in four PGA Tour starts at the expense of Steven Bowditch and Bryce Molder, whose combined form figures read 22-45-63 (SB) 14-MC-46.

Arriving here having played well when last in action is obviously not a negative, but it's easy to argue that too much credence has been given to the solid golf played by one-time PGA Tour winner Tony Finau, who is scandalously short at 10/1 in a place and makes little appeal at a best of 18s.

Finau is a very good player already and he's among the many players on this Tour who could yet emerge as genuine Ryder Cup candidates. It's absolutely right that he isn't judged solely on one victory in modest company and instead for the scope he has. But taking short prices about players of his calibre in events of this nature just does not pay off in the long run.

California's darling Phil Mickelson is no more tempting at the price despite having come alive again of late, while Webb Simpson's incremental improvements with the putter don't have me convinced just yet. He's arguably the most solid of the trio battling for favouritism and his finest hour came in the Golden State, but I'd want 25/1 before even thinking twice.

Instead, I'm keen to chance Luke List gaining the breakthrough PGA Tour win which his talents have long promised.

Now 32, List hasn't quite progressed at the rate expected but it's taken time for him to work out how to harness one of the biggest arsenals of power on the PGA Tour.

Unquestionably, 2017 was the season in which he did so, second place in the Sanderson Farms and third in the Shell Houston Open helping him to play his way through three of the four FedEx Cup Playoff events, in which he ranked ninth, fifth and fifth for greens hit.

While Silverado wouldn't be a bomber's course as such, it does favour those who like and are good at hitting driver. It's Steele's biggest weapon, arguably Grillo's too, and all three final leaderboards here have been packed with players high in the strokes-gained: off-the-tee charts.

List ended the 2017 season ranked 11th, which is behind only Finau and Rick Lamb of those assembled here for the Safeway, and while his advantage is primarily a product of power, he has been able to harness it at golf courses which require a degree of subtlety.

Having four par-fives to go at is a big positive and having been born in Seattle before moving to Orange County, List has strong ties with the west coast even if he now lives out east.

A solid 26th here last year when in no sort of form, List is both suited to the venue and among the most talented maidens in the field. He understands the value of a fast start having thrived at this time last year, taking the pressure off when he endured a mid-summer slump, and can make a big impression from the off.

Those off-the-tee charts really are worth close inspection this week. In 2016, Grillo ranked 28th, Steele 26th, and between them was former Safeway third Scott Piercy. The classier players to have threatened here - Justin Rose, Hunter Mahan, Hideki Matsuyama, Charl Schwartzel - are all excellent off the tee when at their best and Bae was a solid 56th in strokes-gained: off-the-tee in the season of his win.

Throw in a potential link with Riviera, where Bae is something of a specialist, and Keegan Bradley is worth affording the benefit of the doubt.

Most of that doubt relates to his ability, or lack thereof, to make putts, but this is an event in which the one-two in 2015 - Grillo and Kevin Na - both putted extremely poorly. What's most important is what you do to get to the greens and Bradley could go very close without making much at this particular course.

He was 22nd here on his first visit last year, and that can be marked up given that he'd been off for seven weeks and travelling the world to attend three weddings of close friends. This time around, his progress to the penultimate event of the previous campaign means he's been off for just three weeks and that could see an altogether sharper performance.

Like List, Bradley was desperate to get off to a fast start last season and did so thanks to a trio of top-15 finishes following this event and there's absolutely no doubt that this fierce competitor will have watched last week's Presidents Cup with the belief that he belongs in the red, white and blue of Team USA.

The Ryder Cup is a goal which is absolutely within Bradley's reach and as a close friend of Steele whose formlines tie in nicely with Bae's, this course really should prove to be ideal for a player who hasn't missed a cut since prior to the US Open.

California form - particularly on poa annua greens - is certainly a major plus this week and of those at the head of the market, Bill Haas is the one to take most seriously.

Never the most fashionable player but a proven winner in this sort of grade, Haas has won three of his last 30 starts in California, including at Riviera, and got off to a good start here last year.

He can go well at 33/1 having won off a much longer break in the past, but I'd rather feel my way into the new season by adding to the staking plan with some outsiders who could go well.

Pick of them is Sunghoon Kang, bidding to follow in the footsteps of Bae and win this for Korea.

He came very close to a PGA Tour breakthrough last season, first when stringing them out in Houston before being reeled in by Russell Henley, and then when caught out by an untimely rain shower in the Quicken Loans National.

All that experience will help as he looks to take the next step up the ladder and California, where he's shot 60 at Spyglass Hill and has a top-10 finish at Riviera, is a very good place to achieve that goal.

Sung Kang went close twice last season

Kang ranked 63rd in strokes-gained: off-the-tee last season, a very solid effort for someone who isn't the longest as he split two similar drivers in Jason Dufner and Billy Horschel.

He missed the cut here, but still made nine birdies across the two rounds and arrives in better shape this time, having made the cut in his last two Playoff events including when closing with a round of 66 at TPC Boston.

Returning to that point about California, Kang spends a lot of time on the west coast as it's where both his current and former coaches are based, so with a proven track record on poa annua he's well worth an interest at a three-figure price.

Don't rule out Kang's compatriot K.J. Choi, either - he's got to be worth some loose change at as big as 200/1.

Now 47, perhaps time has beaten the forerunner of Korean golf, but there was enough in his 28th place last time plus some encouraging results earlier in 2017 to suggest that he may yet enjoy one last hurrah.

Perhaps it'll come in the CJ Invitational as the PGA Tour ventures to Korea for the first time in a couple of weeks, but I've a feeling he could peak early at a course which should reward his accuracy from the tee.

The reason he's here in Napa is that he's determined to be in form for an event which he says he's "deeply moved" to be taking part in and having that goal so close could certainly trigger an upturn from this 16-time winner worldwide.

Choi has a phenomenal record at Riviera, where he's made the cut in each of 17 visits and hasn't finished lower than 33rd since way back in 2004, while his wider California record includes two runner-up finishes at Torrey Pines, the most recent of them just last year.

Once a player who was particularly dangerous after a break, it's asking a lot for him to demonstrate that ability once more but at the odds a small bet is advised.

I'll finish off with Scott Brown and Bud Cauley, both of whom are really well-suited to Silverado.

Brown was 12th here in 2014 and is always a player to watch out for at his favourite courses, which include TPC Deere Run (5th, 7th, 16th) and Coco Beach, where he's finished first, fifth (twice), 10th and 17th.

Another above-average driver of the ball, Brown was second on his last start in California - at Riviera no less - and was also third in this event when held at CordeValle, which is certainly a similar layout.

Cauley was also third at CordeValle, a position he's also filled in the CareerBuilder Challenge, while his form at TPC Four Seasons - where Bae and Bowditch have both won - also catches the eye.

Bud Cauley is a winner-in-waiting

He was unable to take advantage of ranking fifth for greens hit in this event last year, but has since threatened to win on several occasions and looks set to get off the mark at some point this season.

His good friend Thomas is bound to serve as inspiration and this stellar ball-striker is worth a bet at 50/1 or bigger.

Of the remainder, a quick word for Peter Malnati, who has found his game again thanks, he says, to meditation. A winner at this time of year a couple of seasons back and one of the most deadly putters in the field at his best, he's not to be dismissed as a proven winner who just lacks consistency.

Derek Fathauer is a big price for one who has such an obvious liking for the course, John Deere one-two Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Rodgers are both respected, while of the Web.com graduates it's Chesson Hadley, Aaron Wise and Andrew Landry who came closest to selection as we begin a brand new season, two whole weeks after the latest one ended.