Ryder Cup: Day three betting preview and tips ahead of final session in Paris

Recommended bets: Ryder Cup

1pt Webb Simpson to beat Justin Rose at 15/8

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Let's start with the bad news: the luck of the draw has gone against those who followed either the pre-tournament advice, the in-play addition, or both.

Before the Ryder Cup, I referenced the fact that there has not been a clear top-scorer from America since 1995, a statistic which will extend to 2020 and possibly beyond after this renewal. I don't believe it to be a coincidence, more the natural product of a number of converging factors.

With that in mind, plus the idea that Justin Rose may need a break and Rory McIlroy might not be able to produce his best at a golf course which doesn't allow him to flex his muscles, the speculation was that someone like Tommy Fleetwood might step up and play four or five times and, hopefully, with a deal of success.

Clearly, Fleetwood has done more than anyone could've expected, striking up a partnership with Francesco Molinari so devastating that they've become the first Europeans in history to go 4-0-0 together. With each point registered, they forced Bjorn to keep sending them out. They've been utterly superb.

Regrettably, when top-scorers come from the same pairing it comes down to a singles match or two and Molinari is the shortest price on the coupon having drawn an out-of-sorts, erratic, sparingly-used Phil Mickelson.

Should Molinari win that match as he is priced to do, Fleetwood can only dead-heat and to do that he'll have to beat Tony Finau, a player who has done well enough on his own Ryder Cup debut and will not be easy to overcome.

Should both men lose, however unlikely that appears, then Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth or indeed both could force a three- or four-way dead-heat. That may seem fanciful, but it's also asking a lot for Fleetwood to return a clear winner; a better draw and I'd have been more than hopeful.

Thomas, meanwhile, was selected in-play to be top American at 4/1. Again the theory worked out: that he was fancied to win on Saturday morning, thus earning another go in the afternoon, and that Spieth's poor singles record could make him vulnerable.

Alas, Spieth has on paper the best draw of the Americans, and Thomas among the worst. While Spieth goes head-to-head with a rookie, Thorbjorn Olesen, who has sat out since Friday morning, Thomas plays McIlroy. Whatever your thoughts on Rory, the state of his game and how it works at this course, it's not a good draw.

Where was I? Oh, the good news. Hope springs eternal and Europe are dominating the Ryder Cup. Both bets could land and, while I'd rather not contemplate such a close call, a 14.5-13.5 win for Europe remains possible.

Now for a brief look at every match on Sunday, Ryder Cup singles records in parentheses...

McIlroy (2-1-1) v Thomas (debut)

I liked the justification Bjorn gave for sending Rory out first, which was three-fold: he's good, he likes responsibility and he likes to get on with things. It's sound logic and I can well see Rory ending a so so week on a positive note, gaining revenge on Thomas for their Firestone clash back in August.

That said, Thomas has been brilliant this week, his trip to Paris this summer paying off, and he's born to play Ryder Cup singles matches of this stature. Rory was beaten the only previous time he led off Europe's singles line-up two years ago and, all things considered, there's no angle here. Providing there's enough blue on the board already I'll pledge allegiance to Thomas in the hope the top American bet lands.

Casey (1-1-1) v Koepka (1-0-0)

It's been an up-and-down week for Koepka, who started with a remarkable win but has since lost twice, including in a crunch match on Saturday afternoon. He doesn't appear to have been at his absolute best, but probably hasn't been that far away and could scoot round here in 65 if the putter were to warm up.

He won his Ryder Cup singles in devastating fashion on debut at Hazeltine, but was up against a beleaguered Danny Willett and playing on a golf course which succumbed to him in a way that this one hasn't.

Casey was overcome with emotion having won his first Ryder Cup point in a decade and this purported match play genius will be looking forward to showing what he can do against the game's best high-level performer in recent months. He's played wonderfully, is a little fresher, and represents a big threat to the American.

Rose (2-1-1) v Simpson (0-1-1)

Simpson is probably a shade overpriced here. He was excellent on Saturday and has been underused at a course made for his game. When Bjorn mentioned that this place reminds him of Sawgrass, where Simpson won the PLAYERS so ruthlessly back in May, you wonder what might have been had Furyk come to the same conclusion.

Simpson lost his first Ryder Cup singles game but halved his second and both were closely-fought clashes with Ian Poulter, who has basically swept all before him in head-to-head combat on this particular battlefield. There's no shame in his record and he'll be fresh, confident and very hard to beat on Sunday.

Rose, who lost to Fowler at Hazeltine, is of course a worthy favourite but he's in desperate need of further rest and was involved in the most mentally taxing game of Saturday's foursomes session. I thought Stenson got him out of jail a little bit, too, and he'd be a favourite to avoid in my mind.

Rahm (debut) v Woods (4-1-2)

It's very difficult to weigh up any match involving two out-of-sorts players who are yet to contribute to the scoreline in a positive sense, more so when one is a rookie who looks likely to make a fine Ryder Cup player in time while the other has an enviable singles record having lost only once.

On balance, Tiger deserves favouritism on that record alone, and he has been let down more than once by partners this week. That doesn't excuse his demeanour and four games is enough for a man who achieved a goal more important to him just a week ago. There's a chance he's running on empty, but I wouldn't bet against him.

Fleetwood (debut) v Finau (debut)

The money match in terms of landing a 20/1 winner and despite the negatives outlined above, the positives are easy to find: Fleetwood has been sensational and he's won around this course. Why shouldn't he go ahead and make it a debut for the history books by beating Finau?

The American did impress me, though, on Saturday morning, even in defeat. He produced some wonderful shots at opportune moments and there's been something about his week - that bounce, two chip-ins - which suggests he could sign off on a high.

Fleetwood certainly looks easy to leave alone at around the 8/11 mark. Sunday's challenge is a new one altogether and he's had a physically demanding week, however perfectly it has gone. I fear it could end on a bum note, but hopefully I'm wrong.

Poulter (4-0-1) v Johnson (3-0-0)

Something has to give. Well, unless it ends in a halved match. Here we have two unbeaten records, Johnson's flawless but Poulter's no less impressive, and while Johnson is the superior player, the format and the golf course are both great levellers.

There is an argument, after Poulter lost twice on Saturday, that the Midas touch he once enjoyed in this event is a fading memory, although those who witnessed Medinah will not soon forget it. Certainly, it's six years since he hit his Ryder Cup highs and subsequent performances at Gleneagles and here in Paris are far less impressive.

Still, that singles record is not to be sniffed at and Johnson could lose the match through wayward driving or more pace-blind putting. All of those possibilities combined with respect for Poulter's history both here and in Ryder Cups elsewhere tilt me towards the Englishman, but he's not a bet.

Olesen (debut) v Spieth (0-2-0)

To lose your first Ryder Cup match on the first morning, see no further action until Sunday, and then come out and beat a giant of the game... it would be remarkable. I'd wager it's never been done before, though at the end of my 13th hour I refuse to look. The bottom line is Olesen has a massive task on his hands after Spieth won two points for his side on Saturday.

Still, there's that singles record - two Ryder Cup defeats, more in the Presidents Cup - which plants a seed of doubt. Spieth threw away a lead against Graeme McDowell at Gleneagles and then lost to Stenson at Hazeltine. Likely this isn't a long-term issue and will right itself, but it's enough for now to avoid short odds and hope for a positive end to Olesen's first experience of the event.

Garcia (3-4-1) v Fowler (1-1-1)

It's the full house for Fowler in terms of his prior record, the win coming two years ago and at Rose's expense. He's been rock-solid to my eye this week and his freshness, relative to some, could be a positive as he looks to move his overall singles record into the positive in what could yet be a pivotal match.

Garcia was sensational on Sunday at Hazeltine when last seen in singles. Still, he has a losing record overall and despite a disappointing Saturday afternoon defeat alongside Alex Noren, it's clear his best is brought out by playing truly as a team. This is a decidedly difficult match to weigh up; a genuine coin-flip, even.

Molinari (0-1-1) v Mickelson (5-5-1)

Before this week, Molinari had never won a single Ryder Cup match and now he has four; in other words, his record is of limited significance and we should remember he's played Woods in both singles matches, too. Here awaits another giant of the game, one with a solid singles record, but on this week's form it's a no contest.

Molinari really ought to win. His partnership with Fleetwood has been huge, but his part in it comes from the state of his game, how well it works around here, and the improvements in his pressure-putting and overall short-game which earned him a breakthrough major at the expense of various Americans in July.

By the time this match is on the 15th tee, the Ryder Cup could be Europe's. Molinari, though, has cut a professional, determined figure all week and, while it'll cost me money, I expect him to cap a stunning year by going 5-0-0. Mickelson is simply too wayward for this place.

Hatton (debut) v Reed (2-0-0)

Captain America has lost his cape. Dumped by Spieth (sort of) and unable to help Tiger in any way, shape or form, the aura of Reed as Ryder Cup king has disappeared. In two years time we ought to write this off as one of those weeks, but for now he looks hard to trust.

Hatton hasn't been missed in the market, but he could quite well win this match regardless. He's been excellent in two fourball outings with Casey, the pair shooting in the region of 17-under for 35 holes, and is a strong enough character to take that to head-to-head combat. I've been really impressed with him this week.

Stenson (2-2-0) v Watson (0-3-0)

As we get to the bottom of the line-up, America's strength quickly fades and I'm not convinced by Watson at all. He played well with Simpson on Saturday afternoon but is no certainty to do so again at a course which does not suit, especially having lost all three previous singles matches.

Stenson, who saw off Spieth at Hazeltine and only just missed out to Reed at Gleneagles, ought to take control of this early. He was seriously good on Saturday afternoon and, at 2-0-0 for the week, remains unbeaten. Expect that sequence to continue with a comprehensive dismissal of an under-the-weather opponent here.

Noren (debut) v DeChambeau (debut)

Certainly not a betting heat, with the tie likely to be over before these two get to the closing stretch. Both are rookies, neither has been at their absolute best except for nine holes of Noren's Friday afternoon debut and while the Swede has the edge with me, it's a narrow one.

Given the circumstances and the potential for an early handshake there's no reason whatsoever to bet here.

Related golf links

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