After a 100/1 runner-up and 66/1 third on the PGA Tour last week, Ben Coley has five selections for the RSM Classic.
Recommended bets
2pts e.w. Kevin Kisner at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Kramer Hickok at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Anders Albertson at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
It's the final PGA Tour event of the year and to celebrate, the first 156-man field of the current season will be split across two courses at Sea Island before those who survive the cut play the final two rounds at the more familiar Seaside layout.
That's been the case here since Kevin Kisner's 2015 victory and having shaken off the competitive rust with 36 holes of acceptable golf in Mexico last week, the 34-year-old should be right in contention once more.
Kisner represents the blueprint for success around Sea Island. Hitting the ball a long way off the tee just isn't much of a weapon here and in 2017, when Kisner finished fourth behind Austin Cook, there was just one bona fide bomber in the entire top 30.
Instead, the task is to hit fairways and greens, setting up birdie chances regardless of how strong the wind blows. That's very much Kisner's MO and even in a largely low-key 2018 campaign, he ranked 30th for fairways and 13th in strokes-gained putting.
The issue was his iron play, atypically weak, but Kisner still found comfort when the right set of circumstances presented themselves. Second place in an Open Championship won by the similar Francesco Molinari, a contending seventh at Harbour Town where he'd previously been runner-up and a strong start in the Sony Open all further underline when and where we should expect him to shine.
More recently, 12th place in the PGA Championship and 24th in the Dell Technologies demonstrate that while not at his absolute best, he's not all that far from it and he's shown numerous times that he doesn't need to build confidence to click. His win at Colonial last year came after a very quiet fortnight, second place at Carnoustie in July was his best performance since March and third place in last year's TOUR Championship made it a fine finish to a low-key Playoffs.
Go further back and he was fourth in the Sony to start 2017, having ended 2016 in dire form, so while his runaway win here in 2015 came after a runner-up finish in the WGC-HSBC Champions, predicting when Kisner will play well is more about identifying the course than recognising the strength of his recent form.
Sea Island, where his form figures since he emerged as a rock-solid PGA Tour player read 4-1-MC-4, is a perfect venue for a player who is southern all the way, reserves his best for bermuda greens and, as has been demonstrated, doesn't tend to shirk the issue on Sundays.
With respect to JJ Spaun, who placed for us last week, Kisner is a far more qualified player and he ought to be right up there behind worthy favourite Webb Simpson at the head of the betting.
While Kisner gets the headline vote, the first name on my list this week was Kramer Hickok and he too looks a knocking bet.
Here we have a very promising young player who is built from the same stuff as Cook: he hits fairways and greens and, hailing from Texas where he became great friends with Jordan Spieth, this isn't far off being a home game.
When in Napa ...
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 4, 2018
Wine words from @KramerHickok and @Hank_Lebioda. 🍷 pic.twitter.com/G0s3IbyD71
After a slow start to his rookie season, Hickok has finished 23rd in the Shriners and 29th in Mexico over the last fortnight. Not only will Sea Island suit better, but on both occasions he played really well for three of the four rounds and he looks exceptionally close to putting it all together after a particularly bright start last week.
At 19th in driving accuracy on last season's Web.com Tour and 21st in the formative stages of this one, he's precisely the sort of accuracy-based player who will relish this challenge and his victory in September came on a short course where he was able to shine.
Just how good he is only time will tell, but Hickok is expected to be at his best under conditions akin to those expected in Georgia and is supported accordingly.
Anders Albertson has already hit the frame once this season and this Georgia Tech graduate should also go well back at Sea Island.
Two years ago, Albertson came through a Monday qualifier to earn his PGA Tour debut here and started well with a pair of 68s before a difficult Saturday.
That experience means he's got an edge on many of his fellow Web.com Tour graduates this time and having held his form nicely since earning his card, there's every hope he can make the most of a return to bermuda greens and hit the frame as he did in Mississippi.
Albertson was 17th in greens hit on the Web.com Tour and 49th in driving accuracy, with his victory in the Lincoln Land Championship demonstrating a preference for low-scoring tests which don't lend any real advantage to the longer hitter.
Nobody averaged more birdies per round than Albertson last season, quite something given the strength of the graduates which we've already witnessed, and with home support courtesy of his Texas ties to go with his fellow Yellow Jackets he's fancied to go well.
Denny McCarthy looks set for a big season having learned plenty during a 2018 rookie campaign which ended with a drop down to the Web.com Tour Finals, where he won the Tour Championship in some style before immediately showing the benefits of that confidence-booster back up in grade.
This dynamite putter could go well here having started brightly enough on his course debut 12 months ago, but on balance he doesn't look to have been missed in the market at 50/1 generally.
That's the sort of price offered about a rejuvenated Jim Furyk, back-to-form with top-six finishes in two of his last three starts and always a threat here. The 48-year-old has to make any shortlist while fellow major champion Jason Dufner caught the eye last week and also boasts a Sea Island top-10.
Close followers of the game will also know that Sea Island is a hotbed of PGA Tour talent. There are dozens of players who either live or practice here and while some have struggled to deal with the increased expectation, there are many with local ties who've either won or gone close.
Chris Kirk, Kisner, Brendon de Jonge, Blayne Barber... there are all kinds of clues in past leaderboards that having a connection to the area can be a positive and with that in mind I'll give Kelly Kraft another go here at a three-figure price.
Kraft was put up at 250/1 last year and justified his inclusion to some degree, finishing 22nd despite a relatively slow start to take his form figures in the event to MC-21-22, which is a more than respectable return for a player who doesn't contend often.
While the former US Amateur champion hails from Texas, he was in fact married in Sea Island five years ago and with his sole Web.com Tour win to date having come in Louisiana, he's shown some really strong form in the southern states.
In addition, Kraft's performance at last season's Greenbrier Classic really catches the eye. He finished second, with Cook fifth, Robert Streb 11th and Mackenzie Hughes 13th - that's three former Sea Island winners right in the mix and some other regular contenders here also involved.
A year earlier, Streb finished second with Kisner and Kraft tied fifth and while Old White TPC and Sea Island are not obviously alike, what's clear is that they demand similar qualities and it's therefore encouraging that Kraft finished second to Kevin Na earlier this year to underline how much he likes the event.
Kraft's other standout PGA Tour performance came at Pebble Beach, where rare contender Hughes has been 10th and Kirk nearly completed a coastal double, and on balance he looks best supported by the coast when his accuracy off the tee (32nd last year) counts for something.
Recent form figures of 33-66-38 don't scream winner-in-waiting but he was inside the top 15 in Mexico after rounds two and three and as a close friend of recent winner Kevin Tway, perhaps he's ready to get off the mark himself.
Ted Potter Jr has won both those events which Kraft has gone close in, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Greenbrier Classic, and recovered from an extremely slow start to finish an encouraging 14th in the CJ Cup last time.
At a three-figure price, this proven winner is considered but I've found him hard to get right and there's no doubt he's an all-or-nothing type. Perhaps he's one to back on the exchanges in the hope this is one of those weeks.
Michael Thompson has deep roots here at Sea Island and is playing well while Brian Gay and Russell Henley are respected, the latter having improved for a more suitable test last week and now returning to one which we know is ideal. The trouble is, his price has crashed as a result.
Instead, I'll finish off with a speculative bet on Scott Langley.
The left-hander, a close friend of Henley, is at his best by the coast and it was breezy throughout when he won in Panama earlier this year.
He in fact used to live at Sea Island before moving to Scottsdale and was third on his latest return to Georgia, while his year-long performance stats on the Web.com Tour offer great encouragement as he was 11th in greens and seventh in fairways.
Form figures of 22-MC-33-33 here are more than acceptable for a 250/1 shot who now returns a winner and carded four sub-70 rounds last week, at a course where he'd performed poorly in the past.
Posted at 1200 GMT on 13/11/18.
