Free golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Phoenix Open

Golf betting tips: Phoenix Open

5pts win Rory McIlroy at 11/1

1.5pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Will Zalatoris at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Brooks Koepka 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is golf's version of a Super Bowl party, as something in the region of a quarter of a million fans - a good chunk of them battered by the back-nine - descend on TPC Scottsdale. This is a unique stop on the PGA Tour, a welcome break from multi-course events in California, and has been a huge success story, with the course playing its role to perfection.

Scottsdale is for the most part neither here nor there; a desert track which begins with a series of unmemorable holes which you could pick up and lay down in Texas or Nevada or even in the Middle East without anyone noticing. But the 15th and 17th elevate it massively as the embodiment of the phrase 'risk-reward', sandwiching the par-three 16th, where those crowds would usually gather en masse, to all but guarantee a thrilling finish.

Last year's renewal had a strong emotional undercurrent, coming just days after the death of basketball legend Kobe Bryant. The tournament was a little more subdued but just as thrilling as in years gone by, Tony Finau having his pocket picked by Webb Simpson just as Rickie Fowler had by Hideki Matsuyama in 2016. Fowler got his revenge on the course in 2019, coping best with wicked weather conditions, but Scottsdale resident Finau has chosen to fly off to Saudi Arabia instead of seeking his.

This year, crowds are massively reduced and the atmosphere will be materially affected. This latest reminder of the world as it is - or at least, this part of the world - is unwelcome for everyone, but I'm not of the view that we should change our way of thinking about the event. It's easy to see a high-class honours board as evidence that inexperienced players and journeymen alike have found it all too much, but a meek Kyle Stanley won here on debut, and two-time winner Matsuyama wouldn't be one who searches for the limelight.

Throw in Kevin Stadler and Gary Woodland as past champions and my interpretation is that the course plays into the hands of exceptional ball-strikers, a point underlined by some near misses for Bubba Watson, Jason Dufner and Graham DeLaet. That is perhaps more the case now than ever, after changes made by Tom Weiskopf in 2015 which immediately achieved his aim: to reduce the prospect of another 59 and ensure the course remains a decent challenge for modern professionals.

More specifically, approach play has been key to unlocking scoring opportunities at Scottsdale. Seven of the 11 winners dating back to the beginning of the last decade ended the week ranked fourth or better; four of the 11 led the field. That's a very strong pointer and a further indication that the top of the market is probably the place to focus on, as it has tended to be here.

Jon Rahm went to college and now bases himself in Arizona, contended in the event as an amateur, sits second to Matsuyama in adjusted scoring average (2+ starts) and arrives on the back of seventh place at Torrey Pines. What else is there to say? The Spaniard is hard to keep out of the frame and those fitness doubts ahead of last week's event were quickly dispelled, while his improved ball-striking suggests new clubs are beginning to sing.

He was always going to be favourite here ahead of Justin Thomas, who off the course has reacted in precisely the right way to his abhorrent comment in Hawaii, but who on it still has a little to prove. Third in each of the last two renewals of this, perhaps he'll welcome the smaller crowds for one year only and he's shown many times in the past that he is both prone to an out-of-the-blue shocker, and adept at swiftly bouncing back. He'll need to after a missed cut in Abu Dhabi where he putted terribly.

These two deserve their positions in the betting despite everything, but I've been waiting for RORY MCILROY to come here for a long time and can't resist the urge to back him to deliver at double-figure prices.

It's well-documented by now that McIlroy struggled when the PGA Tour returned last summer, although it was later revealed that his mind was elsewhere with his wife, Erica, pregnant. He's since become a dad and whether you want to call it the nappy factor or just focus on the distraction element, the change in his performance level has been marked. Rory hasn't finished worse than 21st in his seven starts since, with four top-10s. The eight starts from June's resumption to the arrival of his daughter returned zero top-10s, and he was outside the top 30 six times.

Short-game trouble is the statistical explanation for how he played last summer, but I prefer a more subjective one: McIlroy just couldn't get into competition mode, with parenthood on the horizon and no fans at the course to help generate that energy he needs.

On that score, even a few thousand fans in Phoenix is a positive, but the key factors are that he's in a good place mentally and is driving the ball exceptionally again, his iron play has improved, and he's putted well in every single event since his wife gave birth. With his short-game holding its own, he looks back in the sort of form which, don't forget, had seen him win four of his 24 starts before the aborted PLAYERS Championship, hitting the top 10 in 14 more of them.

Scottsdale should be a great fit for McIlroy, especially if he can dial in his irons just a shade. He can go out and attack the course with driver, reducing all three par-fives to a mid-iron and knocking his three-wood onto the driveable 17th. And while much is made of his approach play - plainly, he's not as good a wedge player as Thomas - his relative struggles are exaggerated by where he is hitting it to. Put another way, it's quite difficult to gain substantial ground with approaches played from ideal positions, but McIlroy with a wedge is going to hit the ball closer than whoever else with a seven-iron.

Having led the field in greens hit last week despite ranking 68th in driving accuracy, he should be able to be more aggressive with his approaches at this easier course, where the greens have been softened by rain in the build-up. As for the surfaces themselves, he said it all himself at Torrey Pines: "I'm looking forward to getting on some truer greens."

Returning to the original statement: I think this course is McIlroy's dream. And thankfully, when I shared this idea a couple of years ago, a highly-respected data analyst who worked with Ryder Cup-winning consultants 15th Club at the time revealed that Scottsdale ranked as the number one fit for Rory on the PGA Tour. Let's hope we're both right.

I put up Daniel Berger when last sighted in the Sony Open and he played solid golf for seventh, bemoaning easy conditions which he felt kept him out of contention. Two wins at Southwind and another at Colonial confirm that the Floridian doesn't want a shootout, and the slight toughening of conditions from Waialae to Scottsdale is in his favour, a fact underlined by a strong record here.

That said, he's not budged in the betting despite this stronger field whereas SUNGJAE IM has, and from this day forward I will be surprised if Im doesn't outperform Berger by a fairly decent margin, whether the measure is contending in majors or simply collecting PGA Tour silverware.

Im was the same price as Berger with most firms at the Sony, where he just never got anything going on the greens. As such it was encouraging to hear him talk about a couple of small changes to his set-up and method going into the American Express, where he returned to his best and ranked second in putting.

It was disappointing to see him make two huge mistakes in that event, having been atop the leaderboard at halfway, and the same can be said of Sunday's back-nine at Torrey Pines. Briefly, Im got to within a shot of Patrick Reed, but bogeys at the 10th and 11th halted his progress and a double at the 12th ended his chance altogether.

These mistakes are a little troubling from such an assured ball-striker, but closer inspection reveals his downward spiral in the Farmers began with two very short misses on bumpy, poa annua greens. As will be clear to regular readers by now, the Korean is a significantly better putter on bermuda and, having been compensated with a bigger price, I'm willing to trust him to cut out the errors in his long-game.

Seventh here on debut and 34th last time, Im has gained strokes in every department throughout both visits and outside the big five who are priced at 14/1 and shorter, I don't think there's anyone here with a better chance.

Matsuyama has to be considered given his flawless Scottsdale record bar withdrawing with an injury in 2018, when he'd made a bright start as defending champion. Still, he was very disappointing last week, his long-game deserting him, and I can't take six or eight points shorter following a share of 53rd place at a course he does also enjoy.

By contrast, RICKIE FOWLER showed enough with an identical finishing position to justify his shorter price, and he's taken to become the latest multiple winner here.

JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson and Matsuyama are the latest three to take this title more than once, Holmes beating Mickelson in a play-off two years after a seven-shot romp on debut, and Fowler looks to have his game back in the sort of shape required to complete his own double.

He should've won here in 2016, a combination of misfortune, a lack of ruthlessness and Matsuyama confining him to one of the more painful runner-up finishes of his career. And he probably should've won it in 2010, too, when a costly decision to lay-up at the 15th on Sunday saw Hunter Mahan take the title.

Fowler then is a course specialist, with a win, two runner-up finishes, fourth and 13th place among his 12 visits. He's carded a round of 62 and even last year, when struggling and defending his title, he responded to a nightmare first-round 74 to shoot 65-69-69 and climb to a position of respectability.

It was Fowler's driver which really hurt him in 2020, but he ranked third in the American Express and sixth in the Farmers for his best two-week run since 2017. It's a hugely encouraging indicator and with his approach play solid and consistent, this one-time outstanding putter only needs that element to return to start contending once more.

Here at Scottsdale, where he's led the field in putting on two occasions and has been inside the top 10 on four more, Fowler should leave behind a terrible display (70th of 79) on the bumpy greens of Torrey Pines, where he has struggled badly for a long time now. In contrast he's gained strokes on these greens six years running and if he extends that to seven, while continuing to drive the ball so well, he has every chance.

Four of Fowler's five PGA Tour wins have been on bermuda greens, as was his correlating victory in Abu Dhabi on the European Tour, and he signed off the Farmers with two quality approach shots to set up close-range birdies. If he can get off to a good start on Thursday, I can see his confidence returning very quickly.

The entire golf punting community will be keen to be on WILL ZALATORIS when his first win comes and I'm happy to jump aboard after a brilliant eagle at the last hole saw him share seventh at Torrey Pines.

For one reason or another, that course has seldom witnessed a first-time winner, with Rahm the only recent exception, so to finish inside the top 10 was a massive effort for this outstanding youngster. That's why I'm a little surprised he's only had his odds trimmed, rather than slashed, as Scottsdale has been much more open to a breakout performance such as those produced by Brooks Koepka, Holmes and Stanley in recent years.

In 2020, Nate Lashley took third on debut, matching Louis Oosthuizen's performance in 2017, and there's nothing all that complicated about the challenge here. Zalatoris should find the course to his liking, especially having won at altitude in Colorado on the Korn Ferry Tour and finished fifth in the Nevada desert at TPC Summerlin, where Simpson, Fowler, Koepka and plenty of other Phoenix champions go particularly well.

Crucially, Zalatoris has already established himself as a world-class iron player. He's probably second only to Thomas in this field (the stats would say third, Russell Henley being right up there too), and if we do see another champion who leads the way with his approaches, he's an obvious candidate.

With top-eight finishes in four of his seven starts on the PGA Tour dating back to the US Open, where he was sixth, he looks ready to win. It took Viktor Hovland 11 starts as a professional, Collin Morikawa four and Matt Wolff just two. Zalatoris appears to be of similar quality and this looks set to be a really good course for his abundant power and elite approach work.

As ever I've had a good look at some of those on offer at massive prices, but as none make the staking plan I'll spin through the pick of them.

Matt NeSmith is a rock-solid ball-striker in the Stadler mould, he was eighth at Summerlin, and his approach play was really good again last week. He's respected along with Robby Shelton, who I really like, and who has shown flashes of what he can do over the last six to nine months. Shelton is plainly more comfortable on bermuda greens so this is as good a test as there is for him on the west coast, a comment which also applies to Keith Mitchell who threatened to land the place money for us in Hawaii a couple of starts back.

The two who I really considered however were Aaron Wise, a good desert player who is getting back to where he belongs and was undone by shocking putting last time, and Wyndham Clark, who has no putting issues, is closing in on his first win, has plenty of experience at altitude, lives in Scottsdale, and opened with a 61 here last year.

Wise and Clark are the standout options at three-figure odds, with Sam Ryder, Shelton and NeSmith worth considering if you like top-20 plays, but I'll finish off by discussing the chances of Sam Burns and BROOKS KOEPKA.

Burns has produced some disappointing rounds in contention lately, but the fact that he's been in one of the final two groups off on Sunday in three of his last seven tournaments tells you how close he is to a breakthrough. Hailing from Louisiana, bermuda greens bring out his best and he hit it really well here last year despite missing the cut.

He's second in ball-striking this season, a notable upturn which comes courtesy of hitting far more greens than he did early in his career, and those who want to follow the advice but don't want to back McIlroy - quite a large group, I tend to find - should consider making him the replacement selection.

I've decided, however, to give Koepka the benefit of the doubt at what does appear an enormous price.

Clearly, there are some big questions for the four-time major winner to answer, especially now that he's parted ways with Claude Harmon, the coach who helped him achieve all that he has. Koepka also had some new Srixon irons in the bag for the AmEx and that's a big change given he's played Mizuno since Nike moved out of the market.

All of this helps cultivate a narrative of severe struggle, and plainly he's not in the form of 2017-2019, during which time he reached the top of the world rankings. That said, I think casual observers might be surprised to learn he still sits 13th, which puts him sixth in this field, and it's not all because of dated form - among his last five starts are shares of fifth in Houston and seventh in the Masters.

Rewind a little further and despite being plagued by injury issues, Koepka looked like the man to beat throughout much of the PGA Championship and should've won the WGC at Southwind, a course he likes, when sent off a well-backed 33/1 shot following a missed cut in the 3M Open.

Now, I put him up there because he in fact striped it the week before, only to putt horribly, and I'd prefer that to be the case now rather than the reality, which is that he hasn't hit the ball all that well across his two starts so far in 2021.

That's the risk, that his long-game isn't where we need it, but as a former champion here who says he feels as good now as he has since 2018 from a health perspective, and who was knocked out of the Ryder Cup qualifying places by Reed on Sunday, I think 45/1 is too big a price to ignore.

As was the case at Southwind, Koepka is capable of getting on a roll and building confidence very quickly. And while winless in 2020, post-lockdown he drove it exceptionally at the Heritage, hit quality approaches at Southwind and holed more than his share in Houston. All parts have fired, just not yet together.

Highly motivated and healthy again, I can't get away from the possibility of things clicking at a much more forgiving course than Torrey Pines.

Posted at 1300 GMT on 02/02/21

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