Martin Mathews takes a look at the halfway leaderboard in the Phoenix Open and picks out a three-ball selection for this afternoon.
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2pts Patrick Rodgers to win his three-ball at 8/5
Death, taxes and J.B. Holmes popping up on the West Coast swing, particularly in Phoenix, are three things that apparently remain certain in life.
J.B., or John Bradley Holmes to give him his full name, is a two-time former champion at TPC Scottsdale, firstly back in 2006 when he burst on to the scene in only his fourth start as a full PGA Tour member, and then two years later when he repeated the feat.
Throw in the fact that he was victorious at Riviera last year and also came close at Torrey Pines in 2018 when he memorably took an eternity to play his approach in to the 18th hole, and there will be many, with the marvellous benefit of hindsight, who will be wondering why they didn’t side with him this week after his eye-catching 16th at Torrey last time out.
So the question is for those of us not already carrying a ticket for Holmes, is he value now at a general 4/1 heading in to the weekend with a one-shot lead?
Prior to Rickie Fowler’s wire-to-wire victory last year, the last 36-hole leader to go on to win at Scottsdale was Phil Mickelson way back in 2013.
In fact these were the only two midway leaders to bag the trophy in the last decade, with several of the victors here over recent years having come from way back after 36 and even 54 holes.
Brooks Koepka sat in 20th place at the halfway stage in 2015, while Gary Woodland was in eighth through 54 holes in 2018, before closing with a 64 on Sunday to come from seven shots back and triumph in a play-off.
Despite no doubt being infuriated with his bogey, par, bogey finish on Friday, Jon Rahm will still feel he has every chance from seven-under and six shots back and that's reflected in his price, with the pre-tournament favourite only a marginally bigger price now at 9/1.
In addition to Rahm, who studied at Arizona State and always enjoys his time here, the top of the leaderboard is peppered with players who have good past form in desert events or at least have ties to these type of conditions.
First-round leader, Wyndham Clark, who now sits one shot behind Holmes, resides in Las Vegas, Ben Coley’s pre-tournament 80/1 pick Byeong Hun An was the 54-hole leader here in 2017, and Billy Horschel has flirted with the lead here several times since a debut 11th the year Mickelson won.
Looking further down the board we have another Vegas resident Scott Piercy who won his first tour title in Reno in 2011, a Scottsdale resident Nate Lashley, last year's runner-up here Branden Grace, and finally two of the last four winners of another desert event, the American Express, in the shape of Adam Long and Hudson Swafford.
If we then factor in the further plethora of big names - Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and another standing dish here Bubba Watson, who are all within six shots of the half way lead - it all adds up to being in no rush to side with the leader at this stage.
In my mind, strange as it may seem to say about a two-time former champion, the Kentucky native looks vulnerable, particularly as after his first round he was complaining of being affected by Tennis Elbow, and his edgy bogey at the ninth, his final hole of the day, won’t have done too much to settle the nerves going in to the weekend.
Of his two playing partners on Saturday, Clark, although still a tour maiden, makes marginally more appeal than Horschel, who has flattered to deceive both here and in the desert in general, and finds himself in this position courtesy of a career-best display with the flat stick on day one when he holed just over 195ft of putts.
Instead I am firmly of the opinion that the challenge over the weekend will come from further down the leaderboard and with An already on side for the column I am happy to see how things play out on Saturday before we take another look.
Turning my attention to Saturday’s three-balls and there is one group I am keen to get involved in, the 17.10 UK tee time, in which Patrick Rodgers is grouped with CT Pan and Brandon Hagy.
It is a very long time since Hagy found himself in this type of position on a leaderboard on the PGA Tour and I would expect him to stall over the weekend, while Pan has held his score together with his putter, having hit only 50 per cent of his fairways over the first two days - driving accuracy is typically his strength and that's troubling.
Rodgers on the other hand is yet to get his putter going (it's been a big weapon lately) but sits second in strokes-gained off-the-tee for the week so far and fifth in accuracy and, arriving here on the back of a ninth place finish last week, he makes plenty of appeal at 8-5 to keep his good form going and to outscore his playing partners in round three.
Posted at 0750 GMT on 01/02/20
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