After a 100/1 winner during the Masters, Ben Coley provides five selections in his preview of the RBC Heritage.
Recommended bets:
2pts win Brandt Snedeker at 25/1 - former winner here who should be favourite
2pts win Kevin Kisner at 30/1 - near-miss last month; will see this as chance to atone
1pt e.w. Jim Herman at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - encouraging recent signs and right game for this
1pt e.w. Ian Poulter at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) - expect a determined, inspired performance
The RBC Heritage surely won't live up to the drama and sheer quality shown on Sunday at Augusta National, and it's frankly not possible for it to provide a storyline fit to share the same stage after Sergio Garcia's incredible, logic-defying victory over the gallant and gracious Justin Rose.
But to those of us whose obsession with golf means that every event counts, a trip to Harbour Town always represents one of the unsung heroes of the PGA Tour season and some familiar faces make up a field which is headed by Sunday's hole-in-one man, Matt Kuchar.
Three years ago, a hole-out of a different kind saw Kuchar beat Luke Donald by a single shot here and it's no surprise that, by hook or by crook, he is a Heritage champion. This coastal par 71, while more exposed than it can look, is narrow and tree-lined and favours those who are good at keeping out of trouble, as well as those able to rescue the situation when they have to. Kuchar, of course, is both.
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And while Donald was never as accurate as he was described, even at his 2011 peak, he doesn't tend to miss fairways by much and, again at peak, boasted one of the best wedge-and-putter games in golf. This is very much the formula on the banks of the Calibogue Sound.
Last year, Branden Grace won his first PGA Tour title with the sort of back-nine clinic for which he's rapidly become known in Europe. Squeezing his low, faded drives down the middle of virtually every fairway and keeping his ball flight beneath the tree-line, Grace was never in danger once taking over from Donald and, retrospectively, he too makes sense as an obvious winner of the event.
The South African's key successes in Europe and the Middle East have been under the sort of firm, fast conditions which make small greens so hard to hit here at Harbour Town, and he coped better than most. In fact, you have to go back a heck of a long way for a winner of this event who didn't put on a tee-to-green clinic. There is no escaping the fact that accuracy is a vital asset.
While Kuchar holds favouritism, Brandt Snedeker is the better starting point when trying to weigh up the market leaders and gets my vote.
Snedeker also beat the luckless Donald here in 2011 and has long been suited to this type of test. He might've won the event again but for an opening 77 in 2015, when he responded with a ridiculous 64 in round two, and has really started to look good again of late having parted company with coach Butch Harmon.
A fresh set of eyes and renewed sense of purpose can make all the difference in this sport and Snedeker has played well throughout 2017. Both missed cuts came by just two shots and while not quite the putter he was in the year of his victory here, he was very good over the weekend in Mexico, again at Bay Hill and again at Augusta. Perhaps as his swing changes bed in, he's finding time to refocus on keeping that putter hot.
Whatever the case, Snedeker is playing really well, a top-30 finish at the Masters kept him ticking over nicely and he was outstanding in climbing from 61st to seventh in the WGC-Mexico Championship last month.
It's just over a year since his latest title, whereas Kuchar's came here in 2014, and too much stock is being placed in one jolt of improvement by the latter at Augusta last week. A non-contending fourth is nowhere near enough to earn him such clear favouritism and, as Snedeker should be vying for it, he must be worth backing.
Rather than a good each-way bet, I'd rather go win-only for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, Snedeker is very good when he does get a sniff. Secondly, I want to split stakes and back Kevin Kisner, too.
It was here two years ago that Kisner finally lived up to the billing of his high school coach, who reckoned he'd never seen anyone tougher under the gun. As Kisner took Jim Furyk all the way having never before had a serious chance to win at this level, what his coach said suddenly made sense.
Kisner would endure further frustration at the PLAYERS and again at the Greenbrier, but his win finally came just along the coast from Harbour Town as he put in a relentless front-running display to win the RSM Classic.
These events share plenty in common, something which is apparent not only via geography and topography but the leaderboards they've created. Furyk, for instance, should have won both; Webb Simpson has lost a play-off for both; Chris Kirk and Heath Slocum have won the RSM and contended for the RBC, just like Kisner.
Given that the RSM Classic remains in its infancy, the ties between leaderboards have been established rapidly and Kisner can become the first man to win both having recaptured his best form this year, including when going down by a single stroke in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month.
I thought he was unlucky at Bay Hill, even if as a backer at 66/1 I'd love to blame him for everything that went wrong. Ultimately, Sunday was one of those days: as everything that could go wrong did go wrong for Kisner, winner Marc Leishman had a little luck on his side and, to his credit, took full advantage.
Since then Kisner has played only in the Match Play and the Masters, making the cut in the latter where he once more displayed the sort of accuracy which is so obviously suited to Harbour Town, and of those lining up this week he currently ranks third for strokes gained tee-to-green. He's a significantly better putter than the two ahead of him.
When Kisner was second to Furyk here, he put on a ball-striking clinic and a similar display should see him go close once more, his focus no doubt fixed on atoning for Bay Hill and winning on what's home soil for the South Carolina man, who practices nearby at Kiawah Island.
As for going win-only, again that's largely so he can share the load with Snedeker, but I'm a big believer in Kisner's ability to get it done. He just looks a winner and even last week at the Masters said, "I'm not out here to make cuts. If I'm going to finish 40th, I might as well stay at home, you know?"
To make that statement at Augusta National tells you a lot about Kisner and I expect his near-miss at Bay Hill will only inspire him to step it up next time he is in the mix. It could well be this week.
Snedeker's claims are enhanced by the fact that there have been three two-time winners of this event already this century, and another bidding to secure the double is Aaron Baddeley.
He hit the ball really nicely at Houston last time which hasn't always been the case, and if this four-time PGA Tour winner marries that with a hot putter, which has been uncharacteristically cold of late, he could go well.
So too could one of those two-time champions, Stewart Cink, who continues to produce results now playing with a far more relaxed attitude owing to some difficult personal circumstances.
Whether Cink can convert solid play into his first win in eight years remains to be seen though and I'd rather chance Jim Herman doubling his career tally.
Herman won the Shell Houston Open last year, so his missed cut in that event last time can be excused given the extra responsibilities and attention afforded to a player who is used to going about his business away from the spotlight.
Prior to Houston, he'd finished seventh in total birdies at Bay Hill and eighth at the Valspar, where he ended up finishing third behind Adam Hadwin, and these promising performances are all the product of his reliable tee-to-green game.
Herman is inside the top 15 on Tour for fairways and greens and 16th in strokes-gained on approach shots, so his skill set does appear perfectly suited to Harbour Town, where he made the cut on debut last year but couldn't quite get anything going.
With that experience and a first title defence behind him, plus a proven track record on the east coast, the 39-year-old can get back in the mix at what looks a generous 125/1.
Blayne Barber and Zac Blair are two straight-hitting youngsters set to enjoy a productive week but a bit of nous tends to count for plenty here and that's also part of the reason for overlooking Morgan Hoffmann, who is typically an accurate driver and good putter and knows this course really well.
Instead, I'll throw a dart in the direction of 41-year-old Ian Poulter at the same price as Herman.
Poulter has made the cut on all six visits to Harbour Town, while for a brief time in the 2012 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island it looked like he might lay down a stern challenge to Rory McIlroy.
That formline is given greater substance by the exploits of Carl Pettersson, a former Heritage champion who was right in the mix on Sunday at the aforementioned PGA, and I'm in no doubt that this particular venue plays to Poulter's strengths.
He's fallen off the face of the earth following an injury setback which ruled him out of much of last season, including the Ryder Cup, but his performances since have been packed with promise, only to be undermined by all too frequent mistakes.
The Englishman needs something in the region of a top-five finish to earn back his card as he's playing currently on a medical extension with just two starts remaining, and while I wouldn't be convinced he'll earn what he needs to, I would be keen to stress that we're talking about a highly-decorated player here, one who could certainly rise to the challenge as he has done in the past.
That he watched friends Garcia and Rose battle it out for the Masters on Sunday can only add further fuel to the fire and while a missed cut in Puerto Rico last time was far from ideal given that the event represented a real opportunity, from a ball-striking point of view he was really good.
Some hard work on the putting green might just have paid off in time for the Heritage, where he was 18th a couple of years ago despite making an eight early in the final round, and at the price I'm willing to pay to find out.
I'm sure some will follow the trail from Grace to the Dunhill Links and consider both Tyrrell Hatton and Martin Kaymer, former winners of that event, but my final vote is another speculative one in favour of John Peterson.
An excellent ball-striker, Peterson led the field in greens as he finished inside the top 20 here on his last visit and, like Poulter, has been playing some good golf since returning from injury.
Peterson's results have been more impressive, with two top-25 finishes in his last three starts, and perhaps with a baby on the way he'll find a level of calm on the course that has so far escaped this talented underachiever.
Certainly, this is the type of test which was made for his game and a small each-way bet at 150/1 makes plenty of appeal in an event which tends to favour a very specific type of player.
Posted at 0815 on 11/04/17.
