Ben Coley's RBC Canadian Open preview and betting tips

Recommended bets: RBC Canadian Open

1pt e.w. Ollie Schniederjans at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Harris English at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. CT Pan at 200/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

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After the Jordan Spieth show comes the RBC Canadian Open, where the world’s top-ranked golfer heads the betting at a best of 8/1.

Not often do we see Dustin Johnson so closely followed by Matt Kuchar in the market, but the latter’s effort at Royal Birkdale has earned him full respect at 12/1 and as a general rule, top-level professionals tend to respond quickly and decisively to setbacks.

Kuchar played arguably the golf of his life for his best major finish at the Open and an exceptional record in this event, built chiefly around this year’s host venue, makes it some way understandable that he’s as short as I can recall for this type of event.

The price makes for an easy decision, but Kuchar’s chance has to be afforded respect. His last PGA Tour win came one week after he’d placed at the Masters. The previous one had come one week after he’d finished second at the Crowne Plaza. He won on his first start after a major in 2010, too. In fact, every Kuchar win has come when in-form and so often on the heels of a near-miss.

As for Johnson, his record at Glen Abbey is even more impressive: in two completed starts he’s been beaten by a grand total of two players, finishing runner-up to Brandt Snedeker after a late mistake in 2013, and again to Jhonattan Vegas on his return 12 months ago.

Both came after four rounds in the Open, including when he closed 76-77 at Muirfield in 2013 before looking like he would collect here in Ontario. In other words, Sunday’s lifeless 78 would be of limited concern but for the fact that he struck his irons poorly all week at Birkdale and still appeared short of full fitness.

Beyond the top two in the market, this is wide open and my preference is to take on the favourites with a selection of each-way fancies, starting with Ollie Schniederjans.

Two years ago, Schniederjans made his professional debut here following a share of 12th on his final start as an amateur in the Open Championship at St Andrews.

Thanks largely to a red-hot putter, he was right on the heels of the leaders for much of the week, eventually settling for an excellent share of 22nd after a disappointing, but wholly understandable 73 in the final round.

At the start of the event, he was asked whether the success of Jordan Spieth had given him any kind of comfort as he left the amateur ranks for a paid and therefore pressured career.

A stock question, yes, but one which has real significance here: Schniederjans hails from Dallas, just like Spieth, and the pair are friends having been playing together for well over half a decade now.

"Yeah, I think so for sure," he replied. "Everybody's path's different. But competing against him as a junior golfer and college golfer, you kind of know that you belong right there with him. At least you're going to do everything you can to do that."

Schniederjans ultimately failed to do enough in the summer of 2015 to secure a PGA Tour card for the following year, but in the grand scheme, that’s probably no bad thing. He wasted no time in securing one for this season, either, finishing second in his third event as a Web.com cardholder before winning the Air Capital Classic a couple of months later.

Both of those efforts I find interesting.

Firstly, the play-off defeat came at a Jack Nicklaus-designed course, and Glen Abbey is the Golden Bear’s first solo design.

Secondly, it’s significant that he won the Air Capital Classic, because that event had given Schniederjans his first Tour-level start two years earlier. There are similarities, then, with the Canadian Open, which gave him his PGA Tour opening.

Besides all that, Schniederjans caught the eye at the John Deere Classic last time, where he striped it all week, opened with a 63, and ultimately finished further down the leaderboard (T39) than he really ought to have.

That was at least a step forward from a disqualification at the Greenbrier, where he signed for an incorrect score, and I’m hopeful that he can take another now getting the rare opportunity to tee up at an event and a course he’s played before.

One other potential boost is that his younger brother, Luke, qualified for the US Amateur last week, and all of these factors combined earn Ollie the vote at 80/1.

Schniederjans first came onto my radar this when studying leaderboards from the Farmers Insurance Open, because Glen Abbey has a peculiar but definite correlation with the much tougher Torrey Pines.

Of the last three winners here, two are bona fide specialists – in fact, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker are the best players of Torrey Pines left on the circuit in the absence of Tiger Woods.

Then there's Jon Rahm, who broke through to win the Farmers earlier this season, but could so easily have done so in this event a year ago.

All three are world-class players, sure, but we wouldn’t quite say that of 2016 Canadian Open winner Jhonattan Vegas, who was third at Torrey in his first season on the PGA Tour.

We certainly wouldn’t say it of Nathan Green, the journeyman Aussie whose career highlights came across these two events. First, he lost a play-off to Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines, then three years later he won a play-off for this title. They are by some distance the best two performances of his career.

Players like DJ, Bubba Watson, Martin Laird, Ben Crane and Hunter Mahan further underscore ties between leaderboards and that leads me back to Harris English.

English plays Torrey Pines really well and was part of the four-man play-off won by Day there in 2015.

In fact, most of his best form on the PGA Tour has come at connecting tracks: he’s won the OHL Classic in Mexico and the FedEx St Jude in Memphis, twice gone close at Colonial, and twice gone close in the Sony Open.

All of that bodes well when it comes to his prospects on debut at Glen Abbey, where the unpredictability of scoring conditions is no issue for a player whose wins have come in 12- and 21-under.

English has suffered a difficult 2017, but he’s been able to perform at some of those courses I’ve mentioned and to be honest it’s amazing he’s made any cuts at all given how abysmal he’s been off the tee, which played a part in his making an 11 at the Travelers last month.

However, there was a noted step up on his latest start when T29 at the Greenbrier, where English made gains off the tee in every round, eventually ranking 19th in the field. Considering he’s only just inside the top 200 this season, that’s a jolt of improvement worth noting.

Of course, it could just be one good week and nothing more, but if that is the case then we can at least take comfort in the Nicklaus angle. Almost all of his courses worldwide have become known for offering space off the tee, and from fairway to hole English remains pretty deadly.

There’s a chance, too, that he takes a little encouragement from Kuchar’s performance given that these two Georgia golfers are friends and have won tournaments as a team, but I’m more interested in the tangible improvements he’s made which have led to four top-30 finishes in six starts, plus qualification for the US Open.

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Last year’s leaderboard was littered with big hitters who like to hoist the ball in the air, the product of thin rough and greens that had been described as firm and fast as early as Monday.

This isn’t to say that the shorter hitters can’t make it work – after all, Steve Wheatcroft really should have won the tournament – but it does lead me to the bombers with Gary Woodland next on my list.

Woodland has had his attention taken away from golf for the last few months but this new dad is starting to hint that he could be ready to put the pieces together and win his third PGA Tour title.

His first came on a tricky, tree-lined course in Florida soon after he’d lost a play-off to Vegas in what was the Bob Hope Classic, where one of the courses used is designed by Jack.

Two years later, his second win arrived and this time on a Nicklaus layout in the Reno-Tahoe Open, while a pair of top-six finishes in the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village plus a T2 in the Honda earlier this year provide further ticks in the ‘course designer’ box.

It makes sense that Woodland would enjoy these layouts given how keen he is to hit a faded driver off the tee and he should have that opportunity on his second try here, having made the cut but no more in 2013, just one week before that win in Reno.

The 33-year-old did make a lot of mistakes during the weekend of the Open Championship which is a concern, but he finished with four birdies across the closing seven holes in difficult conditions and had spoken earlier in the week of how good his iron play has been lately.

All of that means I can give this gifted underachiever the benefit of the doubt, whereas I’m not sure I can quite justify backing Rory Sabbatini, another who has been hinting at a return to contending form.

The South African bagged back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Greenbrier and John Deere Classic before last week’s T55 in the Barbasol, where a third-round 62 (one bogey) again underlined that a new set of irons have really done the trick.

Sabbatini has always been something of a Nicklaus specialist – he’s won the Honda, gone close in the Memorial – and three top-12 finishes in five starts here further underline that point. Is he about to win for the first time since 2011, though? I somewhat doubt it.

Jason Kokrak was born in Canada to a Canadian mother before hopping over the border to Ohio, and this big-hitter has fond memories of the event, having made an ace on his last visit to Glen Abbey.

It was encouraging to see Nicklaus-winner Chris Kirk hit the ball better last time out as he snapped a run of missed cuts while former Canadian Open champ Chez Reavie has been striking the ball beautifully of late and could also go well.

However, with the last nine PGA Tour winners all under 30, I’m keen to supplement the headline tip with another couple of youngsters, starting with CT Pan.

This 25-year-old has had an up-and-down year, no surprise given that he’s a PGA Tour rookie, but one or two of the definite highlights catch the eye.

Firstly, he was second at Torrey Pines. As mentioned, for one reason or another, leaderboards there seem to correlate nicely with those produced by Glen Abbey.

Secondly, he’s hinted at some Nicklaus form. Pan might have finished just 37th in the Honda Classic at PGA National, but he was fifth after each of the first two rounds. He also scrapped to make the cut at Muirfield Village earlier this summer.

But above both of these is the fact he’s played some really good golf lately. Last time out, Pan opened with a bogey-free 65 in the Greenbrier, while in June he shot 68-64 across the middle rounds on his way to a top-10 finish behind Spieth in Connecticut.

Pan also has plenty of experience playing in this part of the world, having won twice in just seven starts on the Canadian Tour, and in what looks an event ripe for an upset could be the one to provide it at 200/1.

Finally, the more I've looked at the field, the more I’ve warmed to the prospects of Patrick Cantlay at 45/1.

This youngster is heading firmly in the right direction having returned from injury earlier in the year, placing in two of just seven starts including when just denied by Adam Hadwin in the Valspar.

The 25-year-old is pure quality and it was in the Canadian Open of 2011 where he first put four rounds together on the PGA Tour, finishing ninth when still an amateur.

Remarkably, he’d already carded a round of 60 in just his second event and there is absolutely no doubt that if he can stay free from injury, he’s capable of becoming a global star.

That ascent could continue here, where there’s a lack of depth beyond DJ and Kuchar, and where his long game should open up plenty of opportunities.

Posted at 2040 BST on 24/07/17.

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