Golf betting tips: BMW International Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: BMW International Open

2pts e.w. Martin Kaymer at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

2pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 30/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Sam Horsfield at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Dave Horsey at 125/1 (William Hill, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Ross Fisher at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Germany currently hosts two European Tour events, both powered by big-name sponsors from the world of motoring, both attracting some big-name players as a result. Three weeks ago, Paul Casey defended his Porsche European Open crown and brought Abraham Ancer along for the ride, with Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele all past entrants. Now we get something similar in the BMW International Open, where Louis Oosthuizen, Sergio Garcia and Viktor Hovland stand out in both the field and the betting.

For many, the first name off the list will be Oosthuizen, who was second yet again in the US Open. That's now six runner-up finishes in major championships, and while he tends to brush them off quite well, two in the space of a month must surely hurt. The fact that he did very little wrong and lost by a stroke to Jon Rahm and a pair of birdies which will go down in history may only intensify the pain. He's advised not to watch the highlights.

That said, when you've been runner-up in five of them, perhaps number six is actually easier to stomach. And there is precedent for Oosthuizen taking out his frustrations on a different set of opponents straight away, because after he lost a play-off for the 2012 Masters, he flew to Malaysia and won by three. On his first visit to Eichenried for 12 years, he's arguably the man to beat and would be a popular champion, if not with punters then with golf fans in general.

If Oosthuizen is the most likely winner ahead of Hovland, who suffered a nasty eye problem last Friday and withdrew when set to miss the cut, then it's easy to argue that Garcia is the standout value among this high-profile trio. Far more prolific than he's often given credit for, he's lost a play-off here in 2011 and been done by outsider Andres Romero in 2017, and his performances at Torrey Pines and at Colonial before that were much more like it.

Just how well these players cope with a trip from California may help determine the outcome of the tournament. All three have previous, including Hovland's excellent effort in the DP World Tour Championship when stepping off the party plane from Mexico, and this title went to Henrik Stenson after he flew in from North Carolina in 2016. A year later, Romero had also played in the US Open, ditto Matt Wallace in 2018, so had Matt Fitzpatrick won a play-off in 2019 then we'd be looking at four jet-lagged champions in succession.

Who is the best bet on the European Tour this week?

The short version of this is that I respect the claims of all three, but deep down I do feel Oosthuizen will struggle to go again, that Hovland was poor before his eye trouble, and that MARTIN KAYMER each-way is a marginally better option than backing Garcia win-only.

• Click here to back Kaymer with Sky Bet

Kaymer won here in 2008, defying a late wobble to bag the second title of his burgeoning European Tour career. Since then, returns home to Germany have either gone very well (seven top-25s, including four top-10s and a narrow runner-up finish in this event) or very badly, with six missed cuts including earlier this month at Green Eagle.

Eichenried accounts for half of those failures, but he was 16th here on his last visit, leading at halfway having been sent off a 14/1 chance generally. In the end, deep-rooted struggles around and on the greens came back to haunt him and his excellent ball-striking, which saw him rank fourth in strokes-gained approach, went unrewarded.

Go back further and it was his iron play which took him to this title, as well as to fourth place in 2013, so it was encouraging to see this aspect of his game fire once more as he ranked second in approaches en route to a battling top-30 finish at last week's US Open.

That performance, and the way he recovered after a poor start, suggests he's back in the form which saw him contend in Austria, and miss out narrowly at both the Belfry and Valderrama last year. All three are parkland courses which share similarities and leaderboard commonalities with Eichenried, which tends to level the playing field between long and short hitters and boiled down to a battle of approach play and putting when the wayward Andrea Pavan somehow beat Fitzpatrick.

It's a test which fundamentally suits Kaymer, who is probably giving up too much ground off the tee to compete in his once beloved Middle East these days, and as one of the best iron players in Europe he should again go well. He's another who has won straight of the plane, and from an each-way perspective he looks rock solid for all that concerns over an absence of titles of in recent years are of course valid.

The second tier of the market looks the one to focus on, given that the front three hold no secrets and that, as is so often the case, once you get past the 50/1 mark things do thin out. We've had three relatively big-priced winners in four on the European Tour, but this field is stronger and there were quirks to both the Porsche European Open (played over 54 holes) and the Scandinavian Mixed (firm, breezy, and experimental in format).

Matthias Schwab has plenty in his favour back under his favoured conditions but was 80/1 when threatening to win here in 2019 and looks just a hair short at 25s given his putting woes, and I'm not sure he should've moved past the more decorated SAM HORSFIELD and ANTOINE ROZNER in the market.

I'll start with Rozner and by saying that I simply don't think many of these would've got close to his top-20 finish in a world-class Memorial Tournament last time, where he ranked third in greens and second in strokes-gained approach against many of the sport's best players.

• Click here to back Rozner with Sky Bet

Before that, he produced an outstanding 36 holes of iron play in the PGA Championship, where he missed the cut narrowly just as he had in the Byron Nelson, and it's only a bizarre first round in Tenerife which I could hold against him since he won in Qatar. Otherwise, his form all year has been very strong, and as far as the European Tour goes he's won two of his last eight starts and played well in all bar one of the other six.

All this should entitle the world number 78 to a little more respect and it might just be that his lack of a look around Eichenried is helping to hold up his price. It's of course hard to know whether he'll take to the place, but it's not particularly complicated as a parkland par 72 where water hazards are not hard to spot. As well as a debut winner, we've had several come here and contend first time out.

If he can bring the iron play he's showcased in far superior events in the USA back home to Europe, Rozner looks as capable as anyone of beating the bigger names and really marking himself down as a Ryder Cup candidate.

Horsfield meanwhile probably possesses as much potential as anyone in the field bar perhaps Elvis Smylie and Takumi Kanaya, two young stars for whom this might come a little early on in their development.

• Click here to back Horsfield with Sky Bet

Ian Poulter's one-time protege is further down that line after a pair of wins last summer, and thanks to massive strides in his approach play has done everything but add another trophy to his collection since returning from injury in Kenya, where he ought to have been involved in a play-off for the Savannah Classic.

Since then he's been 15th, fourth, 21st and 25th on the European Tour, and I can overlook his failure to kick on in the Scandinavian Mixed. That course was links-like in the way it played and, still suffering with his energy levels following a bout of food poisoning, in hindsight it was never likely to bring out his best golf despite an excellent start.

With no excuses on the fitness front, he now heads to a course at which he was 21st in 2019, his standout performance of the season to that point. Back then he made twice as many mistakes as those in the play-off and while there's still some room for improvement, his mature victory at the Celtic Classic was largely down to his ability to limit those big numbers.

Horsfield, like Rozner, is now the same price as Thomas Pieters, last seen shooting 82 at the PGA, and Dean Burmester, who is much shorter for this than he was an easier, more suitable event in Tenerife. In a nutshell my belief is that the pair selected are better players than the market says they are and the course shouldn't be a problem for either of them.

More joy for UK golfers?

Eddie Pepperell, Andrew Johnston and Ashley Chesters are three recent eye-catchers with something to recommend them, but if there is to be another UK champion to add to Richard Bland, Marcus Armitage and Jonathan Caldwell, perhaps it will be DAVE HORSEY.

• Click here to back Horsey with Sky Bet

He's the player I referenced who triumphed here on debut, probably the pick of four European Tour wins, and he's since underlined his affection for Eichenried with a blemish-free run which includes finishes of 18th, 11th and 26th.

Horsey certainly appears to prefer this course to Gut Larchenhof, which shares hosting duties in alternate years, and it might just be the spark he needs to return to the form he was producing late last summer, which included 10th at Valderrama, 13th at Wentworth, and several signs that he was close to his best once again.

More recently, he's shown flickers of a new-dad bump having become a parent two months ago, first finishing a staying-on 31st in Denmark, then 25th at an unsuitable course in the European Open to add to a strong record in Germany as a whole.

Last time out he missed the cut by a shot, but an opening 67 in Sweden confirmed that he's in decent nick and his approach play and putting, both sure to be important if he's to contend again here, were as good if not slightly better than in previous weeks.

If he can find small improvements off the tee and dial in those approaches then there's a big performance in him, and I like the fact he was part of the 2007 Walker Cup side as a little mental boost. That may seem a little odd but three members of that team, Rory McIlroy, Caldwell and John Parry, have won during the last six weeks, leaving Horsey and Danny Willett as the only exceptions.

Parry, who bagged his first EuroPro win just a few days ago, was Horsey's partner in the event, and he made clear that seeing Caldwell do what he did was significant to him.

"It’s great to see. (Caldwell winning on the European Tour last week), I played with him in the final round in 2019 in Scotland," said the former European Tour winner. "It’s great to see how quickly you can progress you know. Hopefully in a year or so time I can get back in the same place."

Horsey might just draw a little from that himself and there's perhaps no venue with more positive memories for him than Eichenried, which doesn't place him under immediate pressure from the tee and certainly allows steadier players to compete. There's lots to like at three-figure odds.

Fisher looks a good price

I've had half an eye on the talented Haydn Porteous for a few weeks now and he put it all together for 10th in Sweden, so having played well here on his last visit there's some temptation in 350/1. It's also worth considering David Drysdale, who was fourth here long ago, contended last time, and has his irons where he needs them to be competitive.

Others on the shortlist include Richard Mansell and Sean Crocker, two hugely promising ball-strikers, with Nino Bertasio another who pops up at some of the courses I like as form guides. He's played well all season and it wouldn't surprise me were things to fall into place for him soon enough.

However, I'm going to give another chance to ROSS FISHER, who was runner-up to Horsey here back in 2010, and make him my final selection.

• Click here to back Fisher with Sky Bet

Fisher was a big letdown at Green Eagle a couple of weeks ago, shooting himself out of the tournament with a shocking round of 81 under conditions which were hard but not impossible on day one.

That is obviously a worry, but perhaps he went chasing after a poor start, which can be a recipe for disaster at the longest course on the European Tour and also among its toughest. At least he managed a level-par second round, despite an eight on the card, and ended the event firmly on the front foot for all his chance to make the cut had long gone.

Crucially, and somewhat remarkably given he shot 81-72, Fisher actually drove the ball as well as he has all season on a round-by-round average. His approach play was similar to the very high standards of both the Belfry and Denmark, which had been part of the case for him, but he gave away eight strokes on and around the greens, meaning anything even close to field average and he'd have sailed through to the final round.

The putter is an ongoing issue he's far from certain to have solved, but he's capable of a decent week on the greens and boasts an excellent record both here, and in Germany in general, with Green Eagle increasingly looking like the exception.

His Eichenried record is bookended by two missed cuts, but in the middle is a run of 26-12-2-9-18-11, and it would be fair to say a parkland course suits him best. With the fundamentals of his game looking strong, he's taken to follow Bland's lead and carry the badge of The Wisley to victory.

Posted at 1900 BST on 21/06/21

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