Ben Coley believes there's value to be found in the market for the QBE Shootout, an end-of-year pairs event played in Naples, Florida, from Friday to Sunday.
Bryson DeChambeau & Kevin Na
Two of golf's great minds, both of whom have enjoyed successful campaigns. For DeChambeau, that means confirmation of his world-class capabilities via a dominant late-year run which includes three wins in his last six starts, while for Na it means finally winning a second PGA Tour title some seven years on from his first. With Na's sharpness around the greens and accuracy from the tee giving them a nice platform, on which DeChambeau's general deadliness could shine, there's a lot to like about the skill set, form and confidence, and you wouldn't think they'd be among the pairings happy to see this as a bit of fun and nothing more. Just how they gel is an unknown, though, with Na's sloth-like pace-of-play and DeChambeau's individual focus both raising concerns. Nobody will want to play with them, that's for sure.
Cameron Champ & Kevin Kisner
Champ has been the talk of the PGA Tour having made an immediate impression during the formative stages of his rookie season. It's not the results - although they've been extremely good - more the manner of them, and in an age where length is envied more than anything he's a truly unique talent. You'd worry, then, that a slow-and-steady type might be uncomfortable in his presence, but Kisner will revel in it. He loved playing alongside Phil Mickelson at the Presidents Cup last year and has already taken to twitter to joke that he's doubled his efforts on the range so as not to let down the Second Coming. It wasn't long ago that Champ was playing team golf in college and we should expect this duo to fire with Kisner having built up experience in 2016 (fourth) and 2017 (11th).
I would never practice in this weather on game day if @Kevin_Chappell was my partner, but since I need to impress @Cameron__Champ I am grinding! Go Dawgs! #LFG pic.twitter.com/7IdlJCXpE5
— Kevin Kisner (@K_Kisner) December 1, 2018
Billy Horschel & Brandt Snedeker
The third pairing who from a purely technical standpoint look an ideal combination. In essence, Billy Horschel is one of the finest ball-strikers on the PGA Tour at his best while Brandt Snedeker is as confident a putter as you will see, so immediately they catch the eye. Snedeker said prior to the Australian Open that he has high hopes for 2019, but 34th place there extended a so-so run since he finished second in the season-opening Safeway Open. He's all-or-nothing at the moment but is just the type of partner Horschel will love having. The former FedEx Cup winner climbed back inside the world's top 50 after another strong run in the season-ending events and is doing very little wrong. Snedeker won this in 2015 when paired with an elite ball-striker (Jason Dufner) and Horschel had been inside the top-five in every start until an illogical partnership with Dufner last year. Strong chance.
Charley Hoffman & Gary Woodland
At 107th and 114th in putting last year, it's not difficult to highlight the chief concern with these two - although it should be noted that those rankings put them in the 'average' category and, with their ball-striking capable of bordering world-class, that's good enough to be competitive. The trouble is, Hoffman has been anything but for the last 12 months or so - his last top-10 finish came at the end of 2017 - an his regression ties in with a distinct lack of birdies. Not seen since missing the cut in an event he's won before, there are big concerns around the soon-to-be 42-year-old and there could be too much pressure on Woodland here. It's hard to see them producing the three days of lights-out scoring required to win, but equally certain they'll threaten it in bursts and Hoffman has at least been third in the event twice in three attempts.
Pat Perez & Kyle Stanley
A firebrand in Perez and one of the more meek players on the circuit in Stanley, the concern with this duo is less technical, more flow. Just how will they gel? That and Stanley's low-key World Cup effort would rate the chief concerns with the latter perhaps confirming that he's not cut out for this sort of challenge, which was hinted at when down the field on his QBE debut last year. As for Perez, seventh in Korea and sixth in Mexico represents a welcome return to form and with both players comfortably inside the top 50 in birdie average last season, there's enough to like on paper at least. Chances are, though, that Stanley's woes with the putter and the potential for a personality clash keep them out of the frame despite Perez having been third with (the entirely more aggressive) Brian Harman.
Charles Howell III & Luke List
When they draw up the highlights of the 2019 PGA Tour season, Charles Howell's victory in the RSM Classic simply has to feature. It had been over a decade since the second of his wins and not even runner-up Patrick Rodgers looked aggrieved, on account of Howell having both paid his dues and proven one of the most popular players of his generation. He'll arrive here in great spirits, having locked up a Masters return, and perhaps it can rub off on the underachieving List. One of the most naturally powerful players around, woes with the putter continue to concern although there have been flashes of promise this season and two top-four finishes in three starts confirm that he's at the top of his game. It is his debut, though, and Howell has only one title challenge from numerous efforts.
Emiliano Grillo & Graeme McDowell
Grillo crept back inside the world's top 50 with second place in the CIMB Classic and has held his form nicely, including when eighth - ahead of Brooks Koepka - in the Dunlop Phoenix a couple of weeks ago. His quiet intensity is hard to weight up but he'd appear to be a nice partner to have, given that he's unlikely to put the partnership under of pressure from the tee. McDowell, a veteran of team golf who has twice been second here, registered his best PGA Tour finish in a year last time and will seek to take inspiration from fellow Ryder Cup vice captain Lee Westwood and conjure a renaissance. This is obviously not a serious event, but McDowell is a two-time winner of what's now known as the Hero World Challenge as well as going close here so he can carry his focus into December. Not the strongest line-up but perhaps one of the more motivated.
Harold Varner & Bubba Watson
A couple of big-hitters who were in action last week, Varner finishing a respectable 16th in the Australian PGA and Bubba showing enough in the Bahamas to suggest he can be a factor on the right golf course. He wouldn't be the easiest character to bounce off, though, a fact which was underlined in thick marker pen at the Ryder Cup, but Varner's carefree attitude should enable him to enjoy it regardless. Top-25 finishes in five of his last six starts suggest he's in great nick and if Watson is at his absolute best, these two would look overpriced. Watson, though, has been way down the field in his last two starts although was runner-up alongside host Greg Norman back in 2007.
Sean O'Hair & Steve Stricker
Defending champions who have again been overlooked in the market, despite both having won it with different partners prior to last year's success. Their closing 64 for a 26-under total was enough for a two-shot win last year, with a further two back to third, and they will be geared up for a successful defence. Stricker hasn't been seen since winning on the Champions Tour in September having previously missed the cut in the Wyndham but that's comparable to his preparation last year, when O'Hair arrived out of form as he recovered from knee surgery. The latter spoke then of how important the event was to him in terms of providing a platform for the following year and while things haven't panned out as hoped, there's no better place to find a little something. Definitely not a duo to dismiss.
Tony Finau & Lexi Thompson
A partnership that finished fourth last year, Thompson having been down the field alongside DeChambeau in 2016. She spoke on both occasions of how difficult it is to play from the same tees as the men and how she's hitting long-irons which rarely get a go when she's playing on the LPGA Tour. That's a significant handicap but she does arrive on the back of an emotional success a fortnight ago in the Tour Championship which is held here at Tiburon, and in Finau she has a partner who is right up there with the best players in this field. He does have to bounce back from a Sunday disappointment in the Bahamas, though, and they'll do well to better their 2017 effort.
Luke Donald & Andrew Landry
Donald has always been a force to be reckoned with in Florida, but he's missed two cuts in two starts since returning from injury and there have to be question marks over his general well-being. Landry, meanwhile, has been making cuts without threatening since winning his first PGA Tour title in the spring and this will be his debut in the event. Landry is clearly at his best under demanding conditions, so with Donald not the force of old around the greens there aren't many obvious positives except for the fact they're chalked up as virtual no-hopers at 33/1.
Patton Kizzire & Brian Harman
- Brian Harman has replaced Davis Love; bets on Kizzire and Love will be void and this preview has been edited to reflect the new line-up
Regrettably, Davis Love can't play this week - I had earlier advised an each-way bet on Kizzire and Love - and in steps Harman. The left-hander is a tough competitor who has struggled for much of 2018, having been a regular contender in 2017. There were some more encouraging signs at the RSM Classic last time, but the fact that 32nd place is a positive tells you how poorly he's been playing. Perhaps team golf will spark improvement though and he plays a lot of golf with Kizzire, both at home on Sea Island and when they're preparing for Tour events. As touched upon previously, Kizzire has also endured a difficult year but there have been definite positives lately and his dead-eye putting is a big plus. Harman's off-the-tee accuracy makes them a nice-looking partnership and, at 16/1, I'm happy to keep the faith with Kizzire, whose chances have definitely improved now.
Verdict
There will be plenty who are willing to write this event off as a betting medium but there are four places on offer with one firm in what's a 12-runner field and there could be some each-way value. Landry and Donald look easy enough to dismiss, Thompson and Finau will do well to match last year's effort while Watson's recent history in the event and Varner's long journey from Australia take them off the shortlist, too.
With the odd exception, winning teams have tended to boast at least one genuinely world-class putter so first on my list are HORSCHEL and SNEDEKER, with the latter still among the best around.
Horschel has a flawless return in the event but for last year's pairing with Dufner - two poor putters were never likely to contend - while Snedeker won it with Dufner a few years ago. Horschel's long-game is in great shape and he's a fired-up competitor who is playing in his home state of Florida, alongside a player who has won and finished second in his last ten or so starts and spoke recently of his determination to make 2019 his best year yet.
With both Howell and List and Woodland and Hoffman having questions to answer on the greens, and McDowell not doing enough to carry Grillo in that department, it's Champ and Kisner who rate the main dangers. They have an excellent blend of skills and while Kisner had tongue firmly in cheek when telling social media followers that he's working hard so he doesn't embarrass himself, he will want to keep up his half of the bargain.
Those two are preferred to DeChambeau and Na, the former having surely switched focus to 2019 and the latter not an easy man to play with, and that leaves the defending champions - Stricker and O'Hair - and KIZZIRE and HARMAN.
Successful partnerships coming back for more have a good record in general - Harris English and Matt Kuchar the most recent examples, but there are many more - and Stricker and O'Hair are respected, but at more than twice the price I'll take a chance on Kizzire and Love.
As Monday readers will know, I was keen on Kizzire and Love at the prices and having weighed up the change in line-up I'm of the belief that 16/1 underestimates Kizzire and his new partner, Harman. They're close friends who play a lot of golf together, both have incentive at the end of a tough year and their styles match up nicely.
Recommended bets
3pts win Horschel and Snedeker at 7/1
2018 QBE Classic
Naples, Florida, Tiburon Golf Club, December 7-9
- Round 1: Scramble (players both tee-off, select best ball, then both play a shot from there; process repeated until hole complete)
- Round 2: Modified alternate shot (like traditional foursomes, but both players tee-off before the best ball is selected; alternate shots thereafter)
- Round 3: Four-ball (traditional better-ball, where both players in a team play their own ball as it lies and their best score on each hole counts)
