Golf expert Ben Coley assesses the state of play after three rounds of the Qatar Masters, where two Englishmen share the lead.
Recommended bets: Qatar Masters
1pt win Sean Crocker at 11/2
0.5pt e.w. Alvaro Quiros at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The third round of the Qatar Masters did not go at all to plan for our pre-tournament selections, with Stephen Gallacher falling from second to 33rd, George Coetzee finding himself in a share of 16th having been among the favourites at halfway and Thomas Detry not doing quite enough to get his name into the mix.
Coetzee isn't completely out of it at 10-under, six adrift of the leaders, but he'll need help. Should either Oliver Fisher or Eddie Pepperell break 70, Coetzee will have next to no chance of lifting the trophy and whatever they do, he'll likely need to shoot 66 to place.
Pepperell said two weeks that he'd found 'the secret' to his swing and a further twitter update in the days leading up to Qatar confirmed that he arrived with confidence, which has prompted a return to the form which saw him contend in much stronger fields late last year.
A winner at Challenge Tour level, he will surely complete the step up in grade soon enough and there will be those who believe his exploits at 12 on Saturday demonstrate a man whose name is on the trophy, but I'd be a little concerned that his new technique might come unstuck under Sunday's intense pressure.
Latest leaderboard
-16 Oli Fisher, Eddie Pepperell
-14 Sean Crocker
-12 David Horsey, Gregory Havret, Andrea Pavan, Lorenzo Gagli, Marcus Kinhult
Fisher has won at this level, albeit almost seven years ago, but more recently has been working hard every year just to secure his playing rights. That he's done so speaks to a player with something about him - he's one of those sweet-swinging European Tour players from whom so much more was expected - but, like Pepperell, Sunday asks a big question. This is a world away from the Czech event he won so long ago.
With heavy rain forecast on Saturday night and potentially set to change the way the course plays, there's at least a chance the leading duo will struggle to gain any traction and Sean Crocker is best placed to take advantage.
This youngster has been seriously impressive since turning professional, bagging three top-10 finishes on the European Tour despite playing without a full card, and while he says the goal in Qatar is another top-10 to earn a place in next week's Tshwane Open, his sights can be set higher.
Crocker's power could prove a huge asset if the course is saturated and he looks a fair bet to reel in a nervy pair of leaders at 11/2, while of those available at bigger prices the 150/1 quoted about Alvaro Quiros stands out.
The big-hitting Spaniard has barely put a foot wrong this week, springing to life as he still can on these courses he knows so well in the Middle East. Quiros won this title in 2009, was runner-up on his next two visits and has also won both European Tour events held in Dubai.
These days he struggles to make cuts, but his sole top-20 finish last year was a win under windy, big-hitter-friendly conditions in Italy, while back in 2016 he closed with a round of 65 to finish fourth in the Dubai Desert Classic and keep things ticking over.
Quiros is six adrift here and will need help, but providing he keeps setting up chances there's some hope he could get the putts to drop and make some kind of charge - especially with three genuine eagle chances on the back-nine.
Odds of 4/1 for a top-10 finish are reasonable enough but given the profile of this all-or-nothing player, a small each-way bet is the advice.
Posted at 1400 GMT on 24/02/18.
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