Qatar Masters golf betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

3pts e.w. Martin Kaymer at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Eddie Pepperell at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Alejandro Canizares at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Alex Levy at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Maverick Antcliff at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

After a week in which the internet rightly made the obvious Sex Pistols gag when Matt 'I once met a lady' Hancock told us all to wash our hands to God Save The Queen, it's a line from Pink Floyd's Another Brick in the Wall which springs to mind: 'We don't need no education.'

Unfortunately, we - by which I mean you, me, and the rest of the golf betting community - have no say in the matter, so the Qatar Masters goes ahead, as planned, at Education City Golf Club, leaving behind Doha GC. I wouldn't say years of form from across the city has been rendered meaningless, but its worth has certainly been undermined.

The new venue, designed by Jose Maria Olazabal and his NCM Network, is listed as a 7,307-yard par 71 by the European Tour. That differs from the Education City website, which has the closing hole down as a par five, rather than a par four, but it makes sense: at 513 yards, no longer can the 18th be considered of sufficient length to make five the most likely score.

It's difficult to read much else into the scorecard. Two of the par-fives are long enough to potentially be out of reach for some, but that will depend on the wind which, in Doha, remains a likely feature - expect something similar to the steady 15mph we saw in Oman. Otherwise the par-fours are of broadly similar length, that being neither short nor particularly long, and the par-threes range from 179 to 230 yards which again seems pretty much off-the-shelf.

Pictures from the course also marry up with expectations of a modern venue which only opened last year. There are dozens of big, dramatic bunkers, greens are sizeable and contoured, and there's water in play. It did strike me that much of the water is sufficiently far from the target areas not to unduly worry the professionals, but there's really not all that much to go at.

Finding a way into the tournament is therefore difficult, although that Doha form book remains a decent starting point and so might the designer, Olazabal. He's responsible for Pula, which hosted a couple of Iberdrola Opens, and also Real Club de Golf Sevilla, which has staged the Open de Espana. There's also the Olazabal Course at Mission Hills, and perhaps through these we'll see some kind of correlation, although let's not kid ourselves - there's some guesswork involved here.

That said, MARTIN KAYMER has an outstanding chance wherever he tees up right now and he'll certainly be pleased to see the event move away from Doha, where his best finish in eight attempts was ninth place back in 2013.

So cool on that course was the German that he essentially removed it from his schedule, playing only twice since then, but he's back now for a look at Education City and we do have a small Olazabal fillip in the shape of a top-10 finish at Mission Hills.

But never mind all that, this is about Kaymer's level of form which dates back to fifth place in the Open de France. Since then his worst finish is 38th - in fact, it's the only time he's failed to crack the top 25 - and in 2020 his results read eighth, 16th, 13th and 10th, latterly in Oman last week.

A hole-in-one in round two helped him to a field-leading strokes-gained approach figure for the second time in four starts, and it really does feel like a matter of time before he ends this barren run which stretches back to 2014, when he won the PLAYERS Championship and the US Open.

Kaymer's exemption for the former is up, so he won't be in the field at Sawgrass next week. He's spoken at length about how focused he is to get back into the elite events - he's only in the US Open and US PGA, and neither of the other majors or WGCs - and his two-year plan includes the Olympics and the Ryder Cup.

I've written about all this already this year and it would be fair to say I'm convinced he'll win something soon, whether or not it's enough to get him back in those elite fields and on Padraig Harrington's team. The question is when and where, but after 10th place following a month off, and returning to the desert in which he first made his name as a world-class golfer, this looks an outstanding chance.

The strength of his ball-striking is such that he can rock up anywhere and contend and those slight putting concerns are allayed somewhat by greens that are new to everyone. He is the most likely winner this week and by far the most compelling option in a market where five of the eight players priced at less than 33/1 are yet to win on the European Tour.

Just beyond those, George Coetzee is interesting. He striped it in Oman for his third top-10 in succession since a nightmare in Dubai, and this habitually excellent putter is dangerous if building on that. He's got a fine record in the Qatar Masters, where he's twice been second, and would I'm sure have been must-bet material for many were we still on the other side of the city.

I do expect the two courses to play similarly, but I don't know as any allowance has been made for the potential negative in Coetzee's case.

As such he's left out and preference is for EDDIE PEPPERELL who, at 50/1, looks to have been underestimated with the shorter prices on offer also very much acceptable.

Pepperell won this in 2018 and wasn't able to defend his title last year owing to other commitments, including the PLAYERS Championship where he went on to threaten with a brilliant final round.

The move from Doha isn't ideal given that he's also been fourth there, but otherwise there's plenty to like as he's an excellent wind player, and when last in action he finished 11th in a stronger Dubai Desert Classic where he led at halfway.

He spoke there about a return to a drill which had triggered his breakout 2018, in which he added the British Masters title in tough conditions at Walton Heath.

Although the driver still wasn't all that solid, Pepperell seemed a lot happier with things and there's every chance he's taken another step forward in the five weeks off he's had since.

Inspired as well by watching Lee Westwood's putting (not a gag), he generally looked like a player on the verge of doing something very good, and a return to Doha might just unlock that final step - especially considering his record in Dubai was so poor before this year.

Next I'll move on to a clutch of outsiders, starting with a back-to-form ALEJANDRO CANIZARES.

His was the name to come up when looking at Olazabal-designed courses, having been beaten in a play-off at Pula and finished second and third at Real Club de Golf Sevilla.

Now, both of those are in his native Spain, but it's still fairly eye-catching when you also consider that he's shown more courtesy of 15th in the Vic Open, where he led after round one, followed by last week's rock-solid sixth place.

Speaking at the Vic Open, Canizares offered real hope that his game is back on track following a couple of quiet seasons which he's had to end by reminding us of his class at Qualifying School.

"Yeah, just surprised I played so crap the last three years," was his honest assessment.

"It’s been complicated. I got injured three years ago and it took a while, then some other things, and I became a dad a year ago. Life changes, but I’m getting back to it, I’m starting to work harder.

"(I'm) still motivated, I still want to play. I’ve been on tour for 13, 14 years and I still really want to do it. I've still got half of my career ahead of me, I think."

Dig a little deeper into the form book and it's clear that the Spaniard has been close enough for a while now. Even when missing cuts in South Africa and Mauritius he was shooting decent numbers, and his bid for a last-minute salvage job in Portugal began with a round of 67.

It's over the last two events that things have really clicked for this excellent putter and he can improve again in Qatar, where he's been a regular contender in the past.

At his best, Canizares dominated the Trophee Hassan on an exposed, breezy layout, and there's been enough in all of his play this season to suggest a third European Tour title is closer now than it has been for some time.

Grant Forrest is playing nicely and his approach figures last week were as good as he's produced in a year. He's respected at 80/1, but ANTOINE ROZNER is a better bet with three-figure prices on offer.

A runner-up when tipped on these pages in Mauritius, Rozner has impressed since a two-win graduation from the Challenge Tour, making every cut so far and adding a second top-10 finish in Oman.

He's been driving the ball well week in, week out, and his iron play was also excellent last week as he went on to rank third in strokes-gained tee-to-green.

As with Kaymer, that will serve him really well here and a new course means he's not disadvantaged by a lack of experience. Rozner has a bright future at this kind of level and did very little wrong in Mauritius, losing that play-off to an eagle. This looks a good time to side with him again.

At similar prices, it's also worth chancing the classy ALEX LEVY, whose best form would have put him right among the favourites in a field such as this one.

A five-time winner on the European Tour, Levy's form has dipped since he gave everything in pursuit of a Ryder Cup place, but two years on from his win in the Trophee Hassan there have been signs he's turning a corner.

Last week in particular, his ball-striking was excellent, ranking 20th off-the-tee and on approach and leading the field in greens hit. It's just the third time in his career that he's managed the latter, and it ought to do wonders for his confidence.

So will making two cuts in two, and I happen to think that aforementioned Trophee Hassan could be a decent guide here. It certainly has been at Doha GC, if it works out again then Levy's chance becomes all the more interesting.

The Portugal Masters, which he's also won, is always a good guide to desert form as it's a desert-like test which is exposed to a steady breeze, and Levy's exploits across Oman (fourth), Saudi Arabia (fifth), Dubai (fourth) and Abu Dhabi (seventh) confirm that he's an excellent Middle East operator.

That effort in Saudi Arabia came out of the blue this time last year, and his game looks to be in a little bit better shape now. It's speculative of course, but if the putter warms up from Oman then he has a chance to get back to where he belongs.

Renato Paratore is tempting at a similar price. He missed the cut in Oman, but that's three visits in succession to Al Mouj where he's departed early, and he followed the first of them with a top-five finish over at Doha. The Italian has generally played well this season, having also been a part of that play-off in Mauritius, and his approach work in Oman was good.

Also considered is Rikard Karlberg, who has made all three cuts since heroically earning back his card at Qualifying School. A former winner of the Italian Open, he's got the ability to go well and his approach play catches the eye, but there's a distinct lack of desert form and he does just lack the punch for this type of test.

That's not the case when it comes to MAVERICK ANTCLIFF and this talented young Australian completes the staking plan.

Antcliff was fifth in strokes-gained approach and tee-to-green last week, enduring a shocking four days on the greens, and he does need to improve with the flat stick if he's to spring an almighty surprise.

However, tee-to-green rankings of 12th, 11th, 26th and fifth across his last five starts demonstrate a quality long-game and he's bound to take inspiration from seeing Lucas Herbert and Min Woo Lee establish themselves as European Tour winners this year.

"It’s in the back of your mind, wanting to do everyone back at home proud," he wrote in a European Tour blog a couple of weeks ago.

"There might be a lot of golf fans out there going through a hard time, then you look at guys like Adam Scott winning the Australian PGA, Smithy (Cameron Smith) and Leish (Marc Leishman) winning in the United States, then Wade (Ormsby) in Hong Kong and Lucas (Herbert) in Dubai – seeing that on the news must put a smile on people’s faces.

"The great thing about Australia is it becomes a unified country when things like these happen. With everything going on, it doesn’t matter what Tour you’re on, people are asking you about it and taking an interest. It means a lot to all of us."

That was just a few days before Lee landed the Vic Open and despite missing the cut there, Antcliff was a big eye-catcher on his return to action in Oman.

Three wins on the China Golf Tour last year tell us something - increasingly, it's becoming clear that those who have shown an aptitude for winning, regardless of the level, deserve more respect - and in a wide-open event he's playing too well from tee-to-green to be written off.

Posted at 1845 GMT on 02/03/20

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