Free betting tips: Ben Coley's Presidents Cup preview

Golf

Thu September 28, 2017 · 7y ago

Ben Coley expects Team USA to dominate the Presidents Cup and is backing Phil Mickelson to lead the way.

They've won nine of the previous 11 editions of the Presidents Cup, they host the 12th, they boast the stronger team. The United States should take care of their International opponents at Liberty National this week.

Captain Steve Stricker has a side made up exclusively of players ranked in the world's top 30, including numbers one, two and four. There are three current major champions on display and all of them will wear the red, white and blue of Team USA.

The International side looks as it usually does: top heavy, too dependent on the Australians, the South Africans and Hideki Matsuyama, who make up their leading seven qualifiers. It's a huge concern that Adam Scott wasn't playing well when last seen a month ago, that Jason Day isn't at the level he was when performing poorly on the losing side two years ago, that Matsuyama has seemingly gone off the boil.

Where Stricker had the liberty of selecting Phil Mickelson and top-25-ranked Charley Hoffman as wild cards, opposite number Nick Price went with Anirban Lahiri and Emiliano Grillo. Good players, yes, but not yet anywhere near their equivalents on the US team. Neither made the TOUR Championship and in total seven of the Internationals missed out; only Mickelson failed to advance to East Lake from the US side, and he was at least close.

Steve Stricker captains the USA

Even the potential weakness of the United States team could prove to be a strength. There are six rookies in this side, two more than will represent the Internationals, but flushing out most of those with painful memories of damaging defeats in the Ryder Cup must be a positive. The two rookies who featured in the last edition of that event, one won comfortably by the USA, both played their part.

Everywhere you look, this appears a mismatch.

Underdogs can and do win team golf events, but not so much of late. The Solheim Cup was a one-sided romp for the United States, the Walker Cup even more so, and this is in part a product of the aforementioned Ryder Cup victory over a previously dominant European side. The USA took command of that match early and never let go and their success has bred more success, something we saw happen across all European teams at the start of the decade.

It simply comes down to what price the USA should be and I'd be closer to the shortest (1/4) than I would the biggest (2/5, with just one firm). There just isn't any temptation to take a general and best 7/2 about the Internationals, who've won this event once, way back in 1998 in Melbourne. When the Presidents Cup has been played in the United States, it has only once been close. Again, that was in the 1990s.

In terms of scoreline predictions, beware that the format changed in 2015. There had been 32 points available from 1994 to 2000, then 34 until 2015, when the figure was reduced to 30. The theory goes that this should make things closer and so it proved, the US scraping to victory by a point in Korea.

While I expect they will win convincingly this time, it would be disappointing for the event as a spectacle were they to manage more than 18 points and I would look towards a victory in the region of 17.5-12.5, perhaps saving either side. It's not uncommon for fancied sides to wrap up victory and lose the odd tail-end match which means more perhaps to the opposition, keen to restore respectability.

There is clearly much speculation involved in guessing the score and a good chunk of luck required, so I'll stick to the more appealing top scorer market where Phil Mickelson rates a good bet at 25/1.

Only one player lining up at Liberty National boasts a better Presidents Cup win ratio, and that's Louis Oosthuizen. Mickelson has played in every edition of this event and shows a return of 29 points from 51 matches, winning 23. He was undefeated in Korea two years ago, winning 3.5 points to lead the way for the US with Zach Johnson, and will be keen to justify his inclusion as a wild card just as he was then.

Mickelson also holds a potential freshness advantage, having been the only US player not to feature in the TOUR Championship last week. I often watch the PGA Tour finale with a feeling that many involved have gone to the well one too many times and the roll of honour suggests as much - typically, it's won by a player on a late-season roll rather than one who has been winning majors during the summer.

That isn't to say Jordan Spieth won't summon the energy to conjure one more big performance but his singles record is becoming a concern, and as singles stalwart Dustin Johnson hasn't played well over the last few weeks that opens up the market to a potential surprise.

What's more, the nature of the format is such that every player tends to get a fair crack and with six rookies, Mickelson's experience could be considered invaluable - not just in the team room but out on the course - by a captain of the same generation. A look at recent US stars in this event shows ageing major winners, rather than young blood, and while that will gradually change I'm not sure it starts here.

Then there's the venue: Liberty National. Mickelson is a course member who signed off with a round of 65 for sixth place when last the PGA Tour visited the New Jersey venue, and it's in this part of the US that he's so often produced his best golf. Certainly, he thrives in front of what are known to be boisterous crowds and I can see that being the case as it was when he produced his best performance of the season in Boston just two starts back.

Combine freshness, form, motivation and experience with that course association and I believe Mickelson could play a much more significant role than many expect. As touched upon, experience has helped unearth the leading US players in this event for more than a decade and 25/1 is a price worth taking.

Top US points scorers

2015: Phil Mickelson, Zach Johnson (3.5)
2013: Tiger Woods (4)
2011: Jim Furyk (5)
2009: Tiger Woods (5)
2007: David Toms (4.5)

While many of this US team will soon be celebrating a successful 2017, for Patrick Reed it all rests on this event and he too is worth backing in the top scorer market.

This one is a good deal easier to explain. Reed has already proven himself to be a superb team golfer, leading the US scoring charts in both Ryder Cup appearances, and it's easy to forgive a lacklustre performance on his Presidents Cup debut two years ago.

He's held his form well since sharing second behind Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship and while it's the latter who has just collected a FedEx Cup bounty, Reed's performances for his country surely entitle him to just as important a place in the side.

With more motivation than most and a likely partnership with Spieth, Reed looks a decent price at 14/1. He's selected in preference to Brooks Koepka, who is quickly building his own reputation as a big-time performer who rates a fearsome match play opponent.

For the Internationals to make this competitive, I fancy they'll need Branden Grace to puff his chest out and lead from the front as he did so brilliantly in Korea, winning the maximum five points.

Of course, he was alongside Louis Oosthuizen for four of those matches but there's no doubt that it was Grace who produced the best golf, which culminated in a solid singles win against proven match play performer Matt Kuchar.

As with Reed it's been a year of nearly for Grace, who famously shot the first 62 in major championship history at Royal Birkdale but hasn't lifted silverware of any kind. I expect that will only strengthen his desire to play on-course captain, a role which comes naturally to one of the toughest competitors on the circuit.

Branden Grace

Grace is likely to be paired with Oosthuizen, whose record in the event is outstanding, but it's the former who is more reliable when it comes to singles and I believe he should be much shorter than the 9/1 available.

Given that it's perhaps more likely that an International player like Grace plays every session, whereas the US can and will spread things around more, he's also tempting at 20/1 to top score overall for the second time. Likewise, Sky Bet's 50/1 that he wins the maximum five points is worth a mention, but that to me looks about the right price if we knew he'd play all five, which of course we do not.

Ultimately, I can't shake the belief that the US will win convincingly and it's likely that such a scenario confines Grace to something like a respectable three, three-and-a-half points, which could still be enough here. How Price could do with more players of his tenacity in a side which the USA will expect to demolish.