Golf betting tips: Tenerife Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Tenerife Open

1.5pts e.w. Laurie Canter at 40/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Renato Paratore at 55/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Dean Burmester at 60/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Richard Mansell at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 250/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Jonathan Caldwell at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

On the official website of Golf Costa Adeje, where the European Tour begins a two-week stint with the Tenerife Open, you can watch a live webcam which overlooks the 18th green. It's not quite Bergen to Oslo, nevertheless it allows for a distant glimpse into the preparation which goes on at a professional golf tournament, before the sharper focus of television cameras arrives.

But does it also offer a glimpse into the future? Should the palm trees which have been bent over sideways send us off in a certain direction, clinging to the promise of 'carnage', the word one player chose to describe conditions on Monday?

If it does, and the strong wind holds, then Golf Costa Adeje may yet provide a genuine test. If it does not — and the forecast says it will drop considerably — then the 22-under-par winning score from the Open de Espana played here in 2003 may be short of what's required now, 18 years later, even though the par has been reduced by a single stroke to 71.

As was the case last week and back then, we're at a resort course which is built for holidaymakers, and comes complete with wide fairways, big greens, and little in the way of rough. The situation demands our patience; that we set aside concerns over just how entertaining it is to watch players hit the ball without the real threat of punishment. That we have a European Tour in operation, pressing on in the face of adversity, is something to celebrate.

And it's something to take advantage of, if you've a touch of class, which is exactly what Garrick Higgo has and did on Sunday. The young South African married a prolific week on the greens with that gorgeous, left-handed swing of his, further underlining how comfortable he is by the coast and, more pertinently, under pressure. That's two wins in no time at all and the 20/1 offered about a third is by no means unreasonable given the evidence at hand.

Who is the best bet in the Tenerife Open?

Higgo, John Catlin, Antoine Rozner and Sam Horsfield have nine titles between them since the European Tour returned in June, which equates to around 30 per cent of tournaments played. The first three are back for more and while each of them, even Higgo, might be better suited to a sterner test, it's best not to underestimate their collective ability to adapt to whatever the course and the weather throws at them.

But trophies aren't the only measure of class, and I'm backing LAURIE CANTER to underline his with what would be a deserved breakthrough.

• Click here to back Laurie Canter with Sky Bet

Canter has grown into the player he was always meant to be since last summer, contending on several occasions including in a high-class DP World Tour Championship where he played in the final group on Sunday. Along the way he demonstrated that he's among the finest drivers of a ball you'll see, and when the putter behaves he's a seriously dangerous player.

Low-scoring conditions, the like of which he took advantage of with a 12-under opening round in Italy before losing out by a single stroke, are ideal, and while I would be a little worried by anything approaching strong winds, if the forecast is correct he should have everything in his favour.

Last year, Canter was among the most prolific birdie-makers on the European Tour, ranking third for the season and first among those heading to Tenerife. That statistical category underpinned my staking plan last week, and it's with a little regret that I opted for Andy Sullivan (first) and Johannes Veerman (third), but not Higgo (second).

Still, it's been an excellent pointer at all the resort-style courses we've seen since the European Tour returned, and I suspect it will be here. Canter, who contended in the lights-out English Championship which was won by Sullivan in 27-under, and then again in Portugal and Italy before signing off with fifth in Dubai, has been a persistent threat when he's been able to stack up chances courtesy of an outstanding long-game.

All of this saw him promoted in the betting, but in a weak field he's slipped down again owing to form figures which appear regressive: 4-21-64-MC. However, 64th place came in the WGC-Workday Championship, where the fact he qualified says much about how well he's played, and his missed cut in Qatar came without his regular caddie and under difficult, windy conditions, at a course less vulnerable to his long driving.

Five par-fives and one meaty par-four suggest that Golf Costa Adeje will lend more of an advantage to those who give the ball a thrash, and Canter has shown us time and again that an off-week can be overcome. In fact, four of his top-five finishes since last June have been on the back of a missed cut, the explanation for each of them often found in the nature of the courses he was playing.

A five-week break might not be perfect, but the strength of his form in the Dubai Desert Classic (fourth behind Paul Casey) and in Saudi Arabia (21st in an event won by Dustin Johnson) tells me we're compensated by the price. Most of all, I think he'll love it here, particularly if the wind doesn't get up beyond the levels he coped with just fine in Portugal and the Middle East.

Canter might've been favourite for this had it taken place in February. One of the best maidens on the circuit, he's a strong fancy to make the most of this winning chance and looks excellent value.

More success for South African golf?

DEAN BURMESTER is another with abundant power at his fingertips and he might just feed off a successful week for South African golf and bag his second European Tour win.

Although Higgo is a class act who had been playing well everywhere, I don't think it's a coincidence that a South African relished the increase in temperature from Austria, and Burmester said himself he'd been looking forward to getting out here for a three-week run in the sun.

• Click here to back Dean Burmester with Sky Bet

Like Canter, he was a regular contender under low-scoring conditions last summer, producing some exceptional putting numbers along the way which, married with his long driving, made for a serious combination. It's that ability to light up the greens which suggests we needn't read too much into last week's effort, as he sat 15th through 54 holes but couldn't get the putts to drop and backtracked on Sunday.

Seventh in birdie average among this field last season, Burmester's ability to take apart the longer holes is underlined by the fact he also ranked third in par-five scoring, and having struck the ball really well in Gran Canaria he looks to be a good week on the greens away from contending again.

His form in Portugal and the Middle East should correlate nicely and he looks a good each-way option in the expectation that he makes a heck of a lot of birdies, and perhaps the odd eagle. The last player to win here made five of them and still only edged it in a play-off, underlining what we should expect.

At a much bigger price but for broadly similar reasons, ZANDER LOMBARD is well worth chancing and looks by far the pick of the outsiders.

• Click here to back Zander Lombard with Sky Bet

Lombard caught the eye a fortnight ago in Austria, but with the strokes-gained data there not at all reliable, I wanted to see more before chancing him. Then, in Gran Canaria, he produced another performance of equal encouragement, and it's two weeks running now he's been right on the fringes at halfway.

Perhaps not surprisingly to anyone who has followed the career of this big but wayward talent, Lombard stumbled at the weekend and his driving remains a major concern. However, I return to that Schwartzel line for encouragement: "Generally speaking I didn't play very well. I didn't drive very well and missed a lot of fairways. But you can get away with it on this course."

If Lombard can avoid those off-the-tee errors which can ruin scorecards, the rest of his game looks in good shape. He in fact led the field in approach play in Gran Canaria, putted really well in Austria, and he's returned to the circuit following his wedding in April with something of a spring in his step.

"Love the way the game feels again!" was his takeaway last week, and as a former runner-up in Sicily who has two top-10s in the Irish Open and was once runner-up in the Amateur Championship at Portrush, coastal golf has long appeared to be right up his street, not least because he has a bullet two-iron in his arsenal.

Seeing Higgo storm to success can only spur on a South African player who emerged on the scene with equal fanfare, and he's another whose birdie average stats last year (14th among this field) further highlight the potential for some low scoring.

Lombard has always had that in him, and if he can avoid the big numbers then a title bid is well within his capabilities.

Winning form gives edge to one Italian

Further up the betting and while I am drawn to Nino Bertasio's ball-striking and generally encouraging form, I would rather chance compatriot RENATO PARATORE at a course he too should enjoy.

Paratore's weakness is the odd wild drive, but he has a brilliant short-game and makes stacks of birdies, something we saw last time when he defied an opening 78 to climb to an unlikely 12th in Austria. Despite just two birdies in the first round he ended the week ranked sixth in the field, with two eagles thrown in for good measure.

That was a welcome return to form from the Italian, who contended in the low-scoring Golf in Dubai Championship late last year, and whose victories in the British and Nordea Masters confirm how comfortable he would be should a steady breeze emerge.

• Click here to back Renato Paratore with Sky Bet

Also second in Mauritius and fourth in Qatar, to go with a near-miss at Green Eagle in Germany where there are also five par-fives to go at, conditions look set to be ideal and I like his pedigree in what's a weak event.

It might also be worth noting that when he produced a similar display in last summer's Austrian Open, he won on his next start a fortnight later, and it's just possible history repeats in time for his title defence at the Belfry.

Again, those birdie average stats are considered important, Paratore ranking 13th overall and fourth among this field last year, and with the course thoroughly exposed should the weather turn I'd rather chance a classy player whose form is up-and-down and be compensated by a big price.

Jamie Donaldson was nevertheless tempting at 40/1, given how consistently he's been a factor, his fondness for the likely conditions, and the fact he played reasonably here back in 2003. It's unlikely that experience helps, but it does tell us he can score at the course and the Welshman has been threatening for many months now.

At bigger prices, I did also consider Swedish duo Niklas Lemke and Rikard Karlberg. The former is back having tested positive for Covid-19 in Austria, and his form has been very strong for a while now. Karlberg on the other hand has been hit and miss, evidenced by last week's 73-63, but the positives have been sufficient to look twice at 250/1.

Mansell to drive his way to the top

Perhaps Karlberg is better supported for the first-round lead and I'll instead go back to RICHARD MANSELL, who finished mid-pack last week having been selected at just a slightly bigger price.

• Click here to back Richard Mansell with Sky Bet

Mansell simply looks a player of enormous potential to me and his long-game has been particularly impressive, enough to rank 18th and sixth off the tee over the last fortnight, and 20th and 19th with his approach shots. Again that first set of figures comes with an asterisk but having watched plenty of him in Austria, there's no doubt he was hitting it well and missed a number of good chances.

Putting has been a problem, but he could pick up cheap birdies without making much around here and if a breeze does arrive to make things tougher, the way he's striking the ball can only be a positive.

Second in the Challenge de Espana in November before a bright start in the Grand Final, I am adamant that he's one of the best young players around and chances are he's going off at much shorter prices come the end of the season. That might not be worth much, but for now it's very much worth speculating.

Finally, it's probably a little too soon for top prospect Alejandro Del Rey, although Pablo Martin was 17 when he contended here in 2003. Even so, I'll make JONATHAN CALDWELL the sixth selection at twice the price of the up-and-coming Spaniard.

• Click here to back Jonathan Caldwell with Sky Bet

One of the best putters in the field, Caldwell improved markedly for easier conditions last week, making 21 birdies and very few mistakes on his way to a decent share of 21st.

Last year, he followed something similar with back-to-back top-10 finishes in shootouts at Fairmont St Andrews and in Italy, a lucrative fortnight powered by the putter, and it wouldn't surprise me were he to do something similar if Golf Costa Adeje plays as expected.

As with all my selections, there's some wind insurance there and Caldwell, a former Walker Cup partner of friend and compatriot Rory McIlroy, is worth a small bet in the hope he lights up the greens as we know he can.

Posted at 2000 BST on 26/04/21

Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.