European Tour: Portugal Masters free golf betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

3pts e.w. George Coetzee at 18/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Jason Scrivener at 30/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 70/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Jake McLeod at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

*It's difficult to come up with new sentences every week so you'll have to bear with me*

There's only one salad recipe I know: celery, apples, walnuts, grapes... in mayonnaise. The Waldorf salad. I know it because, as a teenager, I'd sit on my grandad's bed and we'd watch his Fawlty Towers video collection. In the episode titled Waldorf Salad, a belligerent American guest demands a Waldorf salad only to be told by a befuddled Basil that the chef says he's 'all out of Waldorf'.

That American is named Harry, and Harry's wife is the sort who likes to tell you her life is better than yours. Cybil can't get enough of it, of course. Harry's wife tells her she loves living in California, because - when she's not reading Harold Robbins and sipping freshly-squeezed orange juice (OJ, they call it) - you can 'sunbathe in the morning and head up into the mountains to ski in the afternoon'.

I happened to watch that episode on Sunday, and it brought to mind the contrast between Valderrama - where John Catlin somehow beat Martin Kaymer in golf's version of a bloody war - and Vilamoura, where a weaker, pre-major field will enjoy wider fairways, sparse rough, not sight nor sound of a cork tree, and an easing of conditions which would make the clerk of the course at Haydock blush. This is chalk and cheese stuff. Or, as Mrs Hamilton would say, sunbathing and skiing.

Which way round you prefer it will be a matter of personal taste, but you can be sure there will be golfers here at Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course who just could not wait to get off the slopes over in Spain. 'Thank god that's over' was Paul Waring's take and that will be a sentiment shared by many who survived four rounds in Sotogrande. Those who departed early - whether at 36 holes or even before - will be keen to forget all about it and move on, and if ever anyone is going to go from a round in the eighties to four in the sixties, it may well be now.

A regular venue on the European Tour for almost 15 years now, this mid-length par 71 has been consistent in its simplicity. Only a stiff breeze and the spectre of water hazards make players think, and otherwise it's a case of reaching for the driver or three-wood and trying to remain aggressive. In seven of the previous 13 editions, the winner has reached 20-under or better and only once, in 2012, have conditions made for anything resembling a severe test.

Champions have accordingly been mixed in profile, befitting a point-and-shoot event. It's possible to ride a hot putter to victory like Steven Brown did last year, a heroic performance which kept his card and then some. There have been others to dazzle with their short-games, like when Padraig Harrington denied Andy Sullivan back-to-back titles. But the best formula - the one which gave us Tom Lewis and Lucas Bjerregaard and Alvaro Quiros and Alex Levy - has been to be a biggish hitter, to lean on that strength, and to make a heap of birdies via constant aggression.

Immediately that should warn against Tommy Fleetwood, a surprising and late entrant. As players like Sullivan and Rasmus Hojgaard and Thomas Detry head to New York to prepare for next week's US Open, Fleetwood makes his first start of the year in Europe and while a boost to the standing of the event, it's a little hard to understand why exactly he's chosen this ahead of the Safeway Open. Having never bettered 12th here and surely better suited to last week's challenge than this one, he's easily overlooked.

I felt last year that Hao-tong Li missed a trick in skipping an event which ought to suit and indeed has in two previous visits, and 25/1 is tempting. The trouble is he withdrew after a horror start in Spain, and has a new set of clubs in the bag this week. Those are two nagging doubts I just can't shake, and it's a case of all roads leading back to GEORGE COETZEE.

Like Fleetwood, the South African makes his first European Tour start since the spring but there's no doubting his focus. Coetzee isn't in the field for the US Open, and the significance of returning here in Vilamoura is that he simply adores this course. It's one upon which he can unleash driver, not worry too much about the big miss (for all there are no spectators to trample down the rough this time), and let his putter do the talking.

It's ironic then that Coetzee's latest excellent effort here, 14th place last October, was in spite of a cold putter. That was the case at the time - a strange, temporary malaise overcame him on the greens - and he otherwise played well enough to win the tournament, losing 14 strokes with the putter to a champion who beat him by six.

Pound-for-pound I would have Coetzee as one of the best putters on the European Tour, and the good news is those problems of autumn 2019 had been left behind when last we saw him at this level. Coetzee played in the final tournament prior to the suspension of the Tour and finished seventh in Qatar, ranking 10th in putting on greens which were new to him.

Since then he's been seen only in South Africa, so we're blind when it comes to useful statistics. Still, form figures of MC-2-1 tell us all we need to know, victory coming at his home course in Pretoria last week where he outclassed a decent field.

Granted, that has not escaped the attention of the layers, but they might just underestimate the value of an important victory at the course where he learned the game. There's evidence at least that winning at Pretoria has given Coetzee's occasionally fragile confidence a boost: after doing it in 2015 he went 3-1 across his next two European Tour starts, and after doing it in 2018 he flew to Spain where he finished fourth.

This field might boast one world-class player at the very top, but beneath the top handful in the market it is as weak as we've seen since Austria in June. Detry, Sullivan, Hojgaard, Kaymer, Thomas Pieters, Bernd Wiesberger, Matthias Schwab, Robert MacIntyre, Sam Horsfield, Romain Langasque, Renato Paratore... almost all of the standout names of weeks gone by are now absent, their places at the top of the betting taken by those who have questions to answer.

That makes Coetzee's winning form from last week all the more significant, and he now returns to Dom Pedro, where he's made seven cuts in seven, never finished worse than 31st, has three times hit the top seven, and boasts a scoring average of 68 which only three players in the field can better, none having played as often.

If ever this unfulfilled talent is going to win a tournament outside of Africa, likely it will be in fairly humdrum company and on a course he loves. With Doha seemingly off the schedule now, Dom Pedro would be clear at the top of that list and, due to unwelcome circumstances which have hurt the overall field strength, he's presented with a huge opportunity.

Further evidence for how well suited Coetzee is to this can be found in the birdie average stats, in which he sits second among this field on 2020 form. It's fair to say those numbers aren't as robust as they would usually be, given the three-month break, but he ranked 30th of 184 players last year and 21st in 2018, when Portugal champion Lucas Bjerregaard was out in front.

This particular chart has been of great help throughout the UK Swing, several events having been played under resort-style scoring conditions with little rough and courses set-up for their year-round amateur guests. Those factors are again in play in Portugal, a popular holiday destination for the golfing crowd, and anyone who has been stacking up birdies and eagles ought to be of some interest.

Few have done that as well as LAURIE CANTER this summer, and the talented Englishman may find conditions to his liking despite a fairly modest course record.

It would certainly be fair to say this one-time amateur standout arrives in considerably better shape than when way down the Race To Dubai rankings and seeking a miracle in 2016, 2017 and 2018, and an opening 66 in the middle of those three visits at least gives us something to cling to.

On paper at least, Vilamoura ought to be ideal for him. Canter is currently leading the birdie average stats among this field and is eighth in driving distance. Not only is he hitting it long, but he's gaining a huge advantage on the field, ranking third in the off-the-tee stats for the season, and it's that club which can power a big week here if his putter behaves.

Canter has been in and out on the greens - he would've been much closer than 10th in the Hero Open had he holed his share, but did that when 29th in the British Masters, 34th in the English Championship and fifth in the Wales Open. Last time (he perhaps sensibly skipped Valderrama) the 30-year-old was outstanding off the tee and with his approaches only to endure a quiet week on the greens on his way to 13th at the Belfry.

All of this form is rock-solid in the context of this field, and there could be more to come now he comes to a course where that driver is going to break the back of so many holes. He ought to gobble up the par-fives and his season-long par-four stats are incredibly strong, so everything is in place for another big week - and potentially an overdue breakthrough.

Back at the top of the market and you'd think Ryan Fox would put it all together soon enough, having made every cut and bagged five top-30 finishes in six starts since returning. He's another who chose not to put himself through the mill at Valderrama and he does have a round of 64 here to his name, but I would prefer to back this iffy putter when there's less of an emphasis on going low. Perhaps the links opportunities to come will make the difference and he's passed over again here.

The others are a largely uninspiring bunch and it says much that Jamie Donaldson is into 40/1 from an opening 125 a week ago. He has form here but that was also true in Spain, where he fell from second to 10th over a miserable final 17 holes, and while he's making all the right noises I can't advocate going in again at such a reduced price.

Instead, it could pay to forgive JASON SCRIVENER who was among the most popular selections at Valderrama and a third of the price of the Welshman, only to miss the cut.

To his immense credit, Scrivener kept going after a nightmare start saw him go out in 43 and lose all chance to win. After those shocking nine holes, the like of which saw others withdraw or at least down tools in a metaphorical sense, he played the next 27 in one-over, i.e. comparable with the best players in the field, and eventually missed the cut because he doubled the last when bogey would have been enough.

I can see him taking plenty from such a performance and he may even have been better off missing the cut than making it, so in this weaker field, on a course he's equally comfortable playing, it makes sense to side with him at a similar price.

Crucially - and hard though this may be to believe - Scrivener's ball-striking numbers were better last week than they have been all summer. He gained almost four strokes with his ball-striking, up on the stats which helped him finish eighth and 14th across that fortnight in Wales, up on the stats which had him 14th in the English Championship at Hanbury Manor, up on the stats which had seen him show signs of encouragement at Close House and Forest of Arden.

Scrivener simply had an absolute shocker on and around the greens last week, producing his worst recorded short-game stats and enduring his first negative week with the putter since Oman back in March. His overall trajectory on the greens has been steadily upward over the last three years, and he's been excellent this summer, so it's perfectly reasonable to write off Valderrama altogether. Those greens can make a fool of anyone.

Ignore that effort and he has to be considered among the chief threats to Fleetwood, having contended here to some degree in 2016, 2017 and 2018, following a promising enough debut in 2015. The reason he didn't return last October was purely schedule-related - it would've been six weeks in a row, and he'd already qualified for the big end-of-term events - and he'll be licking his lips at a return.

Like Coetzee he's yet to win away from his home continent, if that's a thing. That victory came after he'd played at Valderrama and while things had gone more to plan on that occasion, not all missed cuts are equal. He played really well for three-quarters of his two rounds in Spain and can bounce right back to form at a suitable course.

Sebastian Heisele and WILCO NIENABER are two of the most powerful players in the field and both were immediately on the shortlist. Neither was ever going to be missed in the betting as such, but if the fairly exposed German is a 50/1 shot then there must be some mileage in 33/1 about Neinaber, who is firmly in the could-be-anything category.

In fact, he's probably better described as will-be-something, as perhaps the most naturally powerful player in Europe and one who has been an absolute star this summer. Playing courses for the first time, he's managed fourth at Hanbury Manor - which might correlate nicely with this - and sixth last week at Valderrama, plus 22nd at Celtic Manor which in itself was an excellent effort.

From just five starts that's an excellent return, only foul weather catching him out on his second try in Wales, and last week in particular demonstrates just how far he's come in a short space of time. Back in January the player who had been South Africa's top-ranked amateur learned a harsh lesson when disqualified from a Challenge Tour event having failed to sign his card, and that just underlines that he was essentially making a standing start this year.

Nienaber's power has made all the headlines but the only department which didn't fire last week was his chipping and pitching, understandable given the venue. Now the Tour moves to a course where it's possible to hit 80-plus percent of greens and where getting up and down is not difficult, and it looks the most suitable test he's had so far.

I appreciate the price won't be enough for some - he started this summer at three-figures when getting in as an alternate, after all. Still, look at what he's achieved since, consider the lack of substance to this field (he's played with Fleetwood before, so that's a head-start if the big name does contend) and things begin to look a little different. He's probably the player here with the most potential and a strong start ought to make him dangerous.

For all the above, and four selections who carry genuine confidence, the best value bet by a mile this week is JAKE MCLEOD and he completes the staking plan at 125/1.

This powerhouse Aussie has the sort of game which should work wonders here, that being hit it miles and make some putts, and he did exactly that when eighth on debut last October, defying poor form coming in and some shoddy approach play throughout the event.

McLeod's irons can be erratic but they were very good at Valderrama (by his own standards) in ranking 35th, and it was in fact an off week with the putter which confined him to a low-key 57th. Still, I wouldn't have had him down as any kind of candidate for success in Andalucia (he missed the cut there last June) and it's a performance I view positively.

Prior to it, McLeod had finished 14th and 44th over that fortnight in Wales and then 31st at the Belfry, catching the eye with a couple of 65s along the way, and only now does he go to a course where he's enjoyed some success in the past. Indeed, eighth last year is his best form on the European Tour, with 20th in Qatar - a correlating course, where he briefly contended - another clue as to the type of player he is.

His sole victory as a professional came in one of the lowest-scoring events you'll see back in Australia, and those rounds of 65 and 63 here last year really do catch the eye. They might not have quite been enough to keep his card, but they sent him to Qualifying School with momentum, and six sub-70 rounds earned him his playing rights for 2020.

With no cards on the line this week he can have a free hit at a course he likes, where he was ninth off the tee, sixth in putting, 11th in birdies and second in eagles, and led the field in par-four scoring only to butcher the par-threes. It was a similar story at Valderrama last week where he ranked fifth over the par-fours and the overall message is that his game is in excellent shape - he just needs the right circumstances.

We surely have them here and he's the pick of the outsiders for all that 300/1 shot Will Enefer and US slugger Julian Suri also earned a glance. Enefer was 11th on the Challenge Tour last week and has won a couple of low-key events in the UK this summer, while he's also played some golf out here on minor tours.

He might go better than the odds but this is new territory, and as for Suri, any positive vibes from Catlin could help but the primary reasons for thinking he could play well are his class, his hints of promise at the Belfry, his power, and his runner-up finish elsewhere on his sole start in Portugal.

Posted at 1900 BST on 07/09/20

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