A lean and mean George Coetzee - and two Aussies - feature among David John's four picks for this week's Portugal Masters.
There is not quite the same feeling of desperation this week for some members of the field with the Portugal Masters now filling an earlier slot in the European Tour schedule.
The Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course was the last-chance saloon in 2016 for those attempting to salvage their season and ensure employment for the following year but a rare September outing for what is a very popular event in Vilamoura still leaves some time on the clock for those, as they say, on the bubble.
This will be the 11th renewal so that means enough time for a good majority of the line-up to have had a crack at the layout at some stage or another, while a lovely weather forecast should mean none of the disruption that plagued two of the last three renewals.
This is a resort course that can be gobbled up by the tour pros if conditions are benign but any wind does tend to swirl around and can make the closing few holes very tricky as water does come into play.
So down to business and I am keen to jump on the Aussie bandwagon currently with the top two picks this week going to Wade Ormsby and Jason Scrivener.
It never fails to amaze me how golfers from Down Under have the ability to tow one another long with obvious examples like Brett Rumford back in 2013 winning consecutive events just a fortnight after Adam Scott had made his major breakthrough at the Masters.
We have a similar situation now after Marc Leishman’s impressive victory on the PGA Tour at the BMW Championship, while a resurgent Jason Day also made the frame at Conway Farms in Illinois.
Compatriot Jason Norris hit the target in mid-August at a much lower-key Fiji International while Scott Hend was just pipped in a play-off in Switzerland so I have little doubt their fellow countrymen will be fully dialled in here this week – with Ormsby and Scrivener the pick of the bunch.
The former led in Fiji after three rounds but was unable to close out the deal after a 73 dropped him back down into a tie for fifth place.
Unruffled by that, he made the 16,000-mile journey back to Europe to post an excellent T6 in Denmark and he now sits just inside the top 100 on the Race To Dubai - on the brink of rubber-stamping his card for 2018.
This will be Ormsby’s first competitive look at this venue and his first visit to Portugal for some time but conditions look ideal for him now given that he seems to found some form on the greens since Fiji, as plenty of birdies are going to be the order of the day.
Scrivener has displayed plenty of promise in the last few seasons at this level and might not be too far away from breaking his European Tour duck.
Unlike Ormsby, he has played a couple of times in this event and has plenty of positive memories from 12 months ago as a solid top-20 finish under pressure helped him just crack the top 110 on the Race To Dubai.
Still in his mid-20s, Scrivener has more scope at this level than Norris and is as good as someone like South African Dean Burmester, who notched his first success this year, so the prospects of him going close in an event of this quality are sound and he has a tempting three-figure quote.
Matthieu Pavon will be able to draw on his own little slice of inspiration too after fellow Frenchman Romain Wattel finally came up trumps with a gritty victory last week at the KLM Open and he is next on the list.
Pavon was the first player onto the 72nd green to shower Wattel in champagne in what has become a traditional gesture for Les Bleus when one of their own takes home the trophy.
This has been a real breakthrough year at the top level in Europe for Pavon with a superb third place in a high-class Scottish Open to not only secure his card for next year but propel him well inside the top 60 on the Race To Dubai and on course for a trip to the DP World Tour Championship in the middle of November.
The man who did not miss a cut on the Challenge Tour last year to graduate to this level has obviously made rapid strides ever since and a return to Portugal – where he finished third behind Matt Wallace in May – could help eke out another big performance from a very gifted player.
A final pick from those more towards the head of the betting is George Coetzee as there still seems to be some juice in his price at 33/1.
The South African took eight weeks off to freshen up over the summer when he spent time working on his game and also getting into shape physically as he dropped 15kg in weight before making his comeback a couple of weeks ago at the European Masters.
He missed the cut in the mountains but was clearly much sharper for the outing as he secured a T3 at the KLM Open to launch what he hopes will be a very strong end to the year.
"The work I have done recently has been some of the best in the last seven years," he revealed in a recent interview.
"I am going to play in pretty much everything and I still have to qualify for a few events but hopefully the work I have been doing will kick in. I am quite excited about the rest of the season."
Plenty of punters will have latched on to this and also his excellent course form (just one round worse than 70 in 14 attempts) but Coetzee is a big threat to all with his focus now 100 per cent so climbing into that all-important top 60 looks a formality. He can start that ascent with a big showing here.
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Posted at 1545 BST on 19/08/17.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Wade Ormsby at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Jason Scrivener at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Matthieu Pavon at 160/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. George Coetzee at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
