Porsche European Open betting preview and tips

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1pt e.w. Lucas Bjerregaard at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Chase Koepka at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

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Alex Levy won a shortened 54-hole Porsche European Open last September and as well as changing places on the calendar, this event now switches course, too.

Hamburg is now the host city – the Green Eagle Golf Course is an absolute brute with a par of 72, five par-fives and in excess of 7,500 yards to cover.

It is considered the toughest in Germany and in the top 10 right across Europe so gets some high-profile exposure for the first time since being used on the Challenge Tour back in 2010.

We have a trio of big-name American hangers-on - very welcome but hangers-on nonetheless - from Royal Birkdale with Patrick Reed (market leader), Jimmy Walker and Pat Perez all trading at 33/1 or shorter. 

US PGA champion Walker fared best by making the weekend but understandably still looks someway below his peak winning form in 2017 having been diagnosed with the debilitating Lyme disease.  

Perez is capable but unpredictable so Reed has every right to fancy his chances of finally putting a win on the board this year after some consistent efforts on the PGA Tour.  

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He is a gifted player and this represents a drop in class but the Texan does somehow manage to shoot himself in the foot with an inexplicable poor round - taking 14/1 or thereabouts represents moderate value with that in mind.

Charl Schwartzel is a similar sort of price and he sunk without trace following a bright start to the Open Championship, getting to five under par on Friday morning before finding all sorts of bother and shooting a horrible 78.

He has something to prove so I am far more tempted by Lucas Bjerregaard at a three-figure quote to finally make a triumphant breakthrough on the European Tour under his own volition.

The Dane’s best effort remains a valiant second place behind Justin Rose at the Hong Kong Open in 2015 but he did team up with Thorbjorn Olesen earlier this year to come out on top at the GolfSixes. 

I have a feeling though this mammoth layout will play exactly into his hands with proven distance from the tee that has contributed to a strong scoring record on par-fives over the past 12 months.

He has some course form (T34) from the Challenge Tour event seven years ago mentioned earlier and all told, looks a better version of winner and compatriot Andreas Harto, who bludgeoned his way to to the title as an amateur over Oscar Floren.

The successful total back then was just eight under par so this won’t set up simply as a putting contest (not a strength of Bjerregaard) while I am quite intrigued to see how the selection goes with the venue in such relatively close geographical proximity to Denmark.

Bjerregaard’s best recent effort (T7) came at the lengthy Diamond Country Club in Austria (7,400 yards) so I expect to see an upturn in fortune for a player who is much better than his lowly 120th place on the Race To Dubai.  

Richie Ramsay is the next selection, which may seem somewhat counter-intuitive having made the case for big-hitting Bjerregaard.

Their two games could not be more different with the neat-and-tidy Scot much more of a plotter and strategist who requires getting the most out of a game considered more limited from a physical standpoint.

It strikes me as well that Ramsay puts a lot of thought into his approach each week while I have always been a fan of his mental toughness that gives him an ability to compete against the more naturally gifted athletes.

He plugged away in typical fashion last week at Royal Birkdale for a creditable top 25 but felt it could have been improved with a slightly sharper short game.  

He said after his opening 69: "It was some of the best golf I've played this year, maybe in a few years. Just ball-striking, mainly. Especially the irons."

He went on to add though after the final round: "The chips need to be closer and the putts should be better. It's as simple as that. I am someone who sets myself high goals and a big believer if you work hard success will come."

If he can just find the additional edge in the short game then Ramsay will be a serious threat as he could well cut down some of these big par-fives with precise wedge play. 

Dig back deep enough into the records and you will also find a couple of very good performances in Germany from his Challenge Tour days - including a win in Dusseldorf - so I reckon he can keep up the good recent work that yielded a fast-finishing second place in Ireland.

A final pick goes the way of in-form Challenge Tour starlet Chase Koepka in the belief he can make a positive step in this stronger company at 80/1.

The younger brother of US Open winner Brooks, it is hardly a surprise to see an upswing in Chase’s form after his sibling’s exploits at Erin Hills with two top-five finishes from four starts and a strong move up the Challenge Tour rankings to inside the top 15.

The 23-year-old is following the tried and tested path used by both his brother and close friend Peter Uihlein as he starts to build a career on this side of the Atlantic.

"My game is suited to playing over here and I can hit a wider range of shots," he revealed. "I am not at (Brooks’) level yet but I am progressing."

A T3 in Switzerland, T5 in Denmark and T2 in Sardinia all since the start of June back that assumption up nicely and he looks worthy of consideration at the price.

Big brother was right in the mix at the Open so expect Chase to be inspired to take his chance for what could potentially be a fast-track to the European Tour.

Posted at 1030 BST on 25/07/17.

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