Jason Daniels is spying value in the top-10 finish market as he looks at the state of play ahead of the final round of the Qatar Masters.
Recommended bets
1pt Sami Valimaki to finish in the top 10 at 11/2
1pt Adrien Saddier to finish in the top 10 at 6/1
The move from Doha to Education City GC may have been a step into the unknown for many, but after a mixed third day plenty of the top lot can boast a proven record when it comes to desert golf. Indeed, unless one of the totally unfancied players wins, most pundits will nod and recognise the evidence, even if through gritted teeth.
What is clear is that in a standard European Tour event very few can be totally ruled out. After Sami Valimaki’s big-priced maiden victory last week in Oman, both Jeff Winther and Benjamin Poke seek their first victory at this level and having watched their play today there is little doubt they are capable.
First up, 28-year-old Poke was covered by Ian at the halfway stage and gives legitimate hopes to followers of that 33/1 recommendation. This is a big step up from his two victories in the Nordic Golf League and his efforts on the Challenge Tour, where he ranked 29th in the end of year table. However that victory at the six-round Q-School has clearly given him the confidence to kick on at this level and apart from a final-hole bogey today he has looked the type to progress his form into a win.
Interestingly, not far behind him at Lumine Golf Club were Alejandro Canizares (hotly fancied this week and with desert form), Marcus Arimtage and SSP Chawrasia (currently tied-9th), Adrien Saddier (could have won Oman and 15th on this week’s board) and last week’s maiden winner Sami Valimaki – a potential untapped formline for next year perhaps?
Winther hasn’t proven victorious since the Nordic Golf League in 2013 but has some decent form in the sand – top-15 finishes in Oman and Qatar last year – while he was the only player to split five Spanish players at the top of their home Open last October with a final-round 63.
At just 32, he is hardly a journeyman and finished last year’s Doha event with a 67, launching him from 32nd to 14th. With two eagles on the first day, he has clearly backed up his comments that he does ‘really like the course’ and the greens and in what may become a putting contest only that lack of a previous win is off-putting.
This looks like a test of patience, especially when the winds do blow as the leaders hit the back-nine and Andy Sullivan stated many times this week that he is just being exactly that - patient. His play for the first two rounds suggested he was a tad more aggressive than that and he was hitting some divine irons to tricky pins, but it was a tough gig today after I was probably ready to put him up.
Overcoming his initial two bogeys with four birdies was a quality bounce-back effort, but he seemed to lose concentration on the 14th and then was average on his final hole of the day with a double-bogey and that only courtesy of a free drop. He has impressed for much of the event but is now back in the pack (a dubious pack, granted) and is playing catch-up.
David Drysdale may have played 497 events on the European Tour without a victory but he hasn’t played like that so far this week and was particularly impressive with irons and putter today. Any player with birdies down the stretch needs to be noted, and his bogey-free three-under homeward nine was an impressive sight. It’s tempting to say he really can’t win with the hungry players behind him but he could be inspired by Lee Westwood’s win in Abu Dhabi and Graeme McDowell’s Saudi victory. It’s unlikely, but why not?
Pre-tournament articles were expecting a Spaniard or two to make their presence known here this week on the Jose Maria Olazabal design, and it appears most have picked the wrong one.
Current leader Jorge Campillo came into the event in poor form but has proven that desert-loving players can overcome recent efforts once they return to the right part of the world. He has been extremely impressive in not dropping a single shot in his three front-nines and with just three bogeys in 54 holes is clearly enjoying these large greens.
He is finding fairways, spotting hole positions and in general putting very well. However, the lag putt on 12 started an average home run and while he got out of jail down the stretch with some tidy scrambling, he was just holding on a little.
How do we balance the slightly loose play late on today with some very good formlines in the sand? Last year’s Trophee Hassan winner was tied second at both Oman and Qatar in 2019 while he can also boast top-10s in the Scottish and Irish Opens, all pointers to an ability to play in the coastal, windy conditions we expect in Doha.
Campillo can obviously win his second event on Tour but at around 2/1 I’m happy to leave him alone, despite the fact his advantage over a player with a genuinely strong winning record is three - that man being his compatriot, the mercurial Pablo Larrazabal.
It's generally a case of expect the unexpected with the five-time European Tour winner - see his Lazarus-like win at Leopard Creek - and that can be summed up with his three rounds thus far this week, progressing from 72, to 67, and then again to Saturday's 63 which featured two-eagles and a back-nine 29.
It’s no surprise that the experienced campaigner has hit the low round of the week on his compatriot-designed track and as befits this course, his putting has been sensational over the last two rounds. In that victory at the Alfred Dunhill, Larrazabal went into the final round three shots clear before limping over the line with a 75. Equally we have seen him attack every flag at the French Open, crawl over water hazards when safety was called for and hole birdie putts from anywhere.
This course has a tiring and tricky run-in and most players will find it a target to hit level-par through those final few – I’m not sure he will and it could either be miraculous or disastrous. On first look the 10/1 on offer is actually quite appealing but it may be more prudent to play on the exchanges as the fun never stops with Pablo.
Genuine cases can be made for the quietly progressive Kalle Samooja, who is trending in the right direction and has little fear of attacking pins on any track, and Thomas Detry, unpredictable but with form at the right courses and another that can ‘do a Pablo’ at any time - especially when coming from off the pace.
I’m not ignoring the other half-a-dozen contenders but all things considered it is a puzzle that doesn’t have the right prices attached for a bet in the win market. We'll cheer on Poke and search for options in the sub-markets.
This is a tough gig to call and it wouldn’t surprise if someone from the group at seven-under was to shoot a score good enough to nick a top five. Previous history at Qatar suggests it is tough to come from behind - although Justin Harding was 10th overnight in 2019 – but this board and the potential dangers when missing fairways suggest this goes all the way to the wire on what is a new golf course.
But rather than roll the dice, I’m happy to take two players to continue last week’s excellent form and make their way into the top-10 at very fair prices.
Firstly, Sami Valimaki put a poor second round behind him with a bogey-free 65 today, but it was clearly more impressive than just the actual figure.
Shooting two-under for the final two holes and four-under for the final six is extremely eye-catching and came via some excellent putting – no real surprise given his actions on the 18th hole in Oman last week. He wouldn’t have faced the worst of the wind today having started four hours before the leaders but a top-10 in the Victoria Open as well as that win just seven days ago back up those four victories at a lower level and he's not afraid of a breeze.
The Finn is clearly at the top of his game and on a board that couple see several players stall, his top-class iron play and putting ability is plenty good enough to overcome a current two-shot deficit to make it three top-10 finishes in succession in what's been a career-changing run.
Adrien Saddier was one of those in the mix for Valimaki's Oman title and while he stalled late, bogeying the 17th, it was another encouraging step forward from a talented player who signed off with a top-five finish in Portugal last season.
Saddier’s first six holes have yielded six birdies thus far this week and any repeat start will see him climb up the leaderboard on Sunday. Again, it is clear that windy conditions hold no fears so we are hopefully safe down the stretch as the contenders undoubtedly start showing nerves.
Form in Portugal, France and Ireland reads well while he is a much-improved player from the one that finished 16th in Doha in 2014 after going into the final day in tied third. At the same price as Valimaki, expect another big Sunday from the man who nearly stole the show from eighth place a week ago.
Posted at 1510 GMT on 07/03/20
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