Free betting tips: Ben Coley's PGA Tour Money List preview

Golf

Mon October 02, 2017 · 7y ago

After another profitable season on the PGA Tour, Ben Coley takes a look at the 2018 Money List battle - which kicks-off this week in California.

Now that the FedEx Cup has added a new dimension to the end of the PGA Tour season, it's easy to forget about the Money List, which ignores all bonuses and focuses squarely on dollars earned throughout the year.

It must be said that the two run largely hand-in-hand, but while Justin Thomas edged out Jordan Spieth for both the regular list and in the FedEx Cup itself, it was possible for Spieth to outdo his old friend and win the latter, stealing a $10m bonus despite winning less prize money during the season. It just so happens that he didn't manage to.

Still, the same names will populate both tables and, increasingly, there's very little room for one you're perhaps not so familiar with. Behind JT and Jordan came Dustin Johnson, then Hideki Matsuyama, and there was a gap of more than $2m to fifth-placed Jon Rahm, who in turn was ahead of Rickie Fowler in the battle for fifth.

Thomas had been 11th a year before but the biggest leap of course came from Rahm, who finished 106th in 2016 from just nine starts having turned professional after the US Open. Whether you expected him to climb so rapidly into the world's top five or not, the signs were there that he had it in him.

It's Spieth, though, who is undeniably the man to beat once more. In five years on the PGA Tour he's finished no lower than 11th, and the $12,030,465 he earned in 2015 remains mind-blowing. Nobody in world golf plays the majors better, and I'm not sure anyone plays the regular events better either.

Standout 7/2 quotes are more than fair and some will be prepared to take a small hit on the place part with a bona fide each-way bet to nothing, but the competition has never been so fierce and for that reason he's reluctantly left alone.

Rahm and Matsuyama are both tempting at 14/1 - the latter probably deserves to be a little shorter than the Spanish sensation, all things considered - while Fowler may be one or two good swings from knocking down the major door and riding that wave through an entire campaign.

All this is known, however, and I would much rather search for a young player whose name belongs alongside those mentioned, yet who perhaps remains off the radar in some respects. In other words, the next Rahm.

That man is Patrick Cantlay, who is a huge price at 125/1 and well worth chancing with an each-way bet if you can.

Cantlay finished 47th in the 2017 Money List yet made it all the way to the FedEx Cup finale, having reserved some of his best golf for the season-ending play-offs. He did so having played just 13 tournaments - everyone in the top 10 played 20 or more, with Thomas reaching 25 - and made the cut in every single one of them.

To give context to how big an achievement that represents, you have to read into Cantlay's back story.

This is a player who shot 60 on the PGA Tour as an amateur in 2011 and went on to spend 55 weeks at the top of the amateur world rankings, a record Rahm would go on to take by a few weeks.

A stress fracture in his back then stopped Cantlay in his tracks, although not before a four-shot breakthrough on the ultra-competitive Web.com Tour. A year on the sidelines became two and a half, as one physical setback led to another, and then things got even worse. His best friend and caddie was struck by a car and fatally injured as the pair were out drinking, Cantlay no more than a few yards away but powerless to stop it.

Imagine all that happening, and then imagine finally making your return to the PGA Tour at Pebble Beach in a star-studded field less than a year later. For almost anyone else, expectations would be set low and results low-key and so they were for four rounds and a share of 48th in California. But then, on his very next start - his second PGA Tour event in over three years, remember - Cantlay finished second, beaten by a shot, in the Valspar Championship.

That's up there with the achievements of 2017 in my opinion, and having added third in the RBC Heritage and two top-10 finishes in the Playoffs it's clear that Cantlay has laid the foundations for the career he was always expected to have.

Cantlay could go well at 150/1

There's enormous scope for improvement in money terms given that he played only one major and no WGCs in 2017, which offer huge prize money almost regardless of performance. In reaching East Lake he earned a Masters invite and I have no doubt that he'll soon climb into the world's top 50 (currently 70th) and unlock starts in every event he wants to play.

Furthermore, one title could so easily precede another. Cantlay made one big mistake when second to Adam Hadwin in Florida but will learn from that setback and show how tough he is sooner rather than later. In fact, should he choose to take part in some of the early-season events he may be a winner before 2017 is out.

The bottom line is that I expect Cantlay to achieve lots in 2018. I believe it's more likely than not that he wins an event; that he will make the Ryder Cup side; that before perhaps even both of these, he will be inside the world's top 50. And, at 25 years old and with the potential to top the world rankings even in this era, I think he's capable of taking an almighty step forward and competing for Money List honours.

It won't be easy, but compared to what he's been through to get this far, it might well feel like it.

The other I'm keen to chance is Si-Woo Kim, in the hope that he can stay fit enough to do himself justice.

The Korean is just 22 years old, yet he's already a PLAYERS champion and two-time PGA Tour winner, both of which have come in the last 18 months as he confirms his place as a standout talent worldwide.

He's well inside the top 50 in the rankings which means access to the biggest events and prize funds, and he's got endless scope to improve on 36th place this year, which came essentially thanks to one week at Sawgrass and a solid effort in the US Open. Most of the time he spent laid up, either struggling to compete or withdrawing altogether, so to take his chance as he did in Florida was particularly special.

It's clear that various injury niggles have halted Kim's progress to some extent, but just imagine therefore what he could do with a clean bill of health. It's hard to get a firm grip on where he stands on that score, but he looked in good shape at the Presidents Cup and the hope is the worst is behind him. If that's the case, he's a massive price at 300/1.

Si Woo Kim

Perhaps use his Sunday conqueror at the Presidents Cup a means of comparison. Is Daniel Berger really a better player, let alone significantly, than the PLAYERS champion? Berger is no bigger than 80/1 and while his injury issues have been less significant, the gap between the two is far too big. Kim has achieved more in his career so far despite conceding a fitness advantage.

Increasingly in golf it pays to side with youth and if there are to be some fresh names on the Money List come next September, Kim and Cantlay make as much sense as any that I can see, even allowing for the temptation to add a third string to the bow with 250/1 shot Ollie Schniederjans. Granted, they have a lot to do to compete with the best, but the prices more than allow for the challenge which lies ahead.