PGA Championship: The big questions ahead of major at Southern Hills

What should we expect from Southern Hills?

In short, something very different from what he saw in 2007, when Tiger Woods won this championship. Back then, Southern Hills was the kind of test we've come to associate with a US Open: long and lush, with tight fairways, thick rough and fast greens. Four players broke par and the presence of Woody Austin in second and Simon Dyson in sixth underlines that keeping the ball in play was a good starting point, as it once was in the US Open before power took over.

Now, since Gil Hanse's restoration was completed in 2019, Southern Hills has been returned to something more in line with Perry Maxwell's Golden Age vision. That means trees have been removed, bunkers transformed from oval and pristine to their rugged, original shapes. The creeks which run through this property have been brought back into focus, fairways have been widened and, perhaps most significantly, grass around the greens has been cut.

Why might that be the most significant change? Because these subtly contoured greens make for extremely small targets, and the punishment for missing them has now been multiplied. Where before, a five-yard miss would remain a five-yard miss, balls nestling in that dense rough which surrounded the greens, now five yards might be come 10, 15, 20, even more than that. Think of the ninth hole at Augusta and the price paid for coming up just a little short, and you should get a good idea of what's to come.

What might that mean when it comes to finding the right skill set?

I think during the course of the build-up, when it begins in earnest on Monday, we'll hear Southern Hills referred to as a second-shot golf course quite a bit. That's certainly the view of Hanse, who told The Fried Egg: "They're small targets. You have to be incredibly respectful of the edges of the greens, because balls are just going to run away. Hopefully we get them pretty firm... the targets are tiny, to access hole locations."

This idea is strengthened by the width of the fairways now, and it's worth noting that there's been a lot of talk out of practice rounds that players were able to keep reaching for driver. That's something course superintendent Russ Myers touched upon in a Q&A with Geoff Shackleford, reckoning that driver would be hard to resist even when it brought bunkers and those creeks into play. His view appeared to be that the winner would be someone prepared to go and attack Southern Hills off the tee, and reap the rewards of shorter second shots and the extra control they would bring.

This brings us nicely to the Viktor Hovland conundrum. An Oklahoma State college graduate who has gathered a nice bit of major experience now and who beat an elite field for the first time late last year, Hovland looks in many ways an obvious winner of this. He'd be following sparring partner Colin Morikawa in getting off the mark in the PGA Championship, and this has long been a good major for young, aggressive, talented players like the Norwegian.

But can he overcome his undeniable weakness around the greens? Hovland is last, by a distance, among the more than 200 PGA Tour players who have played enough rounds to quality for the strokes-gained around the green rankings. It has been a weakness ever since he emerged fully in 2019, as Hovland confessed when he overcame a duffed chip or two for his first win the following February. "I just suck at chipping," was his frank admission, one echoed by coach Pete Cowen. There's been plenty of talk of improvements, but the numbers paint a damning picture.

It's true that his scrambling stats are significantly better and some would point to them in mitigation – after all, how often a player can retrieve par after missing a green is ultimately what counts. But there's a reason the best ball-strikers, of whom Hovland certainly is one, are often higher up the scrambling stats than we expect, and it's that their misses are more minor. In other words, Hovland's approach play is so good that if he is chipping, it's often from very close to the green, where others might be further away.

Here at Southern Hills, he might be chipping from similar spots to other players who've missed the green more significantly. In other words, the punishment for a small miss can be as significant as the punishment for a big miss. I suspect therefore that if he is to win, two things will be required: a brilliant tee-to-green display, the like of which we've become accustomed to, and a career week when it comes to holing out for par.

Is the defending champion taking part?

No. Phil Mickelson officially withdrew on Friday evening, which means there will be no defending champion as he remains sidelined since *clears throat* the Saudi International in February. It was shortly after the Asian Tour event that journalist Alan Shipnuck, teasing the launch of his Mickelson biography, made public a conversation between the pair from last November, an explosive reveal which has already impacted the career of one of the best golfers of his generation.

"We know they killed (Jamal) Khashoggi and have a horrible record on human rights," Mickelson told Shipnuck. "They execute people over there for being gay. Knowing all of this, why would I even consider it? Because this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape how the PGA Tour operates. They’ve been able to get by with manipulative, coercive, strong-arm tactics because we, the players, had no recourse. As nice a guy as (PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan) comes across as, unless you have leverage, he won’t do what’s right. And the Saudi money has finally given us that leverage. I’m not sure I even want (the SGL) to succeed, but just the idea of it is allowing us to get things done with the Tour."

Mickelson's response, as well as to besmirch the reputation of a journalist by claiming he'd been speaking off the record, was to apologise. Reading it again, it's difficult to tell exactly to whom this mea culpa was directed: the PGA Tour and Jay Monahan, or LIV Golf and Greg Norman.

"I used words I sincerely regret that do not reflect my true feelings or intentions," Mickelson said, without telling us whether he means he doesn't think the Saudis are bad dudes or whether he thinks the PGA Tour is coercive, or both. "It was reckless, I offended people, and I am deeply sorry for my choice of words. I'm beyond disappointed and will make every effort to self-reflect and learn from this."

Perhaps most intriguing, however, were the broader reflections Mickelson made. Whether contrite or not, they rather seem like a trap laid for himself.

"I have often failed myself and others too," he added. "The past 10 years I have felt the pressure and stress slowly affecting me at a deeper level. I know I have not been my best and desperately need some time away to prioritize the ones I love most and work on being the man I want to be."

Was he sincerely acknowledging deep-rooted personal issues which demanded time away from the sport? Or was this a ruse to hide a PGA Tour suspension, the like of which the organisation famously does not confirm? When rumblings of PGA Tour suspensions do emerge, they often refer to a time period of three months. It's been just over that long since we saw him in action.

If Mickelson is indeed suffering from personal problems, he should be supported in his battle – the kind of support the PGA Tour has often been generous with. As for being the man he wants to be, we'll soon find out whether that still extends to accepting huge sums of money from those people he described in damning terms. Whatever your view, whatever mine, it doesn't matter: we know what Mickelson thinks of the House of Saud, we know he knows they're providing the money as Greg Norman provides the face, and we know he says he's intent on becoming a better person. He said all of this himself.

Mickelson might maintain that his ambitions relate to improving working conditions on the PGA Tour, but that simply will not wash. He faces a choice which may go some way to shaping his legacy, and indications from the LIV Golf side of this saga suggest that he remains intent on risking PGA Tour sanctions by playing in their events, beginning this summer on the outskirts of London, days before the US Open.

There is of course another way Mickelson can materially alter his legacy, and that's by winning the only major he's yet to win. Those are the terms here, writ large: take the money and compromise US Open preparations to boot, perhaps even risking his place in the field at Brookline. Or complete a volte-face that could blow Saudi Arabia's ambitions in this sport apart, doing more to strengthen the PGA Tour and its future than any amount of bad money ever could.

We now know we won't get answers during the PGA Championship, as the biggest enigma in the sport stays away from a title defence he earned with one of the most miraculous major victories this sport has seen. He ought to be here; he ought to be able to revel in retelling the story of how he, weeks short of his 51st birthday, outthought, outhit, outplayed Brooks Koepka. Instead, it seems likely we'll next see him in a LIV Golf event streamed on YouTube, where he'll play for nothing but money. What a shame that is.

Can Jordan Spieth complete a career grand slam?

Of course he can. This looks a really good course for Spieth, whose approach play has always been a major strength, and who can dazzle around the greens. Right now, he's even driving the ball to a high standard so while there are those who've questioned his new pre-shot routine, and the work he did to prepare for this year which included some pretty significant swing changes, there is absolutely no doubt he has everything nicely bedded in.

In fact, Spieth's tee-to-green display in winning the RBC Heritage in April ranks among the very best of his career, and he won that tournament despite putting poorly. Yes, there was a good chunk of fortune involved as others stepped aside, but he struck the ball to a level which really ought to be rewarded with silverware. If he does that again, it would only require a good, unspectacular putting week for him to dominate a tournament. Something like that he produced when finishing second in the Byron Nelson.

Missing short putts – not just that, but looking like you're going to miss short putts – has to remain a concern, especially in this environment. No player, not even a three-time major winner and former world number one, is immune to major pressure, and it's intensified by the situation Spieth finds himself in. Victory here would put him in golf's most elite company and that's something he'd have to battle down the stretch on Sunday.

But it's a good course for him, it really is, and Spieth has already played it at its more fearsome, in a practice round which saw winds blow up to 35mph. Those major wins in 2015 and 2017 were all preceded by PGA Tour victories, and he comes here having won and finished second since a disappointing Masters. Confidence is high once again. He's among the strongest candidates.

How will Tiger Woods fare?

Woods faces a very different test to that which he conquered in 2007, and pithily remarked during Sunday's practice round that he doesn't approve of any course that's been lengthened. That's a reference to both the fact that he's no longer among the most powerful players in the sport, and that every extra yard is another step for his ailing body to have to complete.

It was remarkable that he managed to play all four rounds in the Masters, starting brightly only to fade and finish 47th of the 52 who made the cut. There's surely no other player in the game who would've been able to win that battle of body and mind as he did – and make no mistake, even the man who made winning everything will know that this was a victory. Woods, remember, might've lost a limb little more than a year ago. Many believed we'd seen the last of him as a competitor.

So what to expect now? On the one hand, Southern Hills is an easier walk, though not an easy walk, and significantly warmer temperatures ought to help him to a degree. On the other, the humidity of Tulsa and the fact he's still very much undercooked suggest that it's asking too much to believe Woods might play a significant part in the outcome of this tournament come the weekend.

Fundamentally, it is a course that should still suit Woods, perhaps even more so since Gil Hanse's restoration project was completed. He remains a brilliant iron player, and we should see more from his short-game than we did at Augusta. Strong winds which are forecast might further tip the scales towards those, like him, who've got years' worth of experience, who have won events like the Open Championship.

That event, held this year at St Andrews, his favourite course on Earth, remains Woods' target. In the meantime, Southern Hills gives him another irresistible opportunity to show us all how tough he is; how much he can draw from his battered body, supported by the sport's strongest mind. Whatever he does, however he scores, Woods will be as committed as anyone. But just as was the case at Augusta, he may not yet truly believe he can win major number 16.

Briefly during the Masters, Woods did make us believe again. Such is his power. Something similar – a strong start, flashes of genius – would be a fine way for this championship to begin.

More PGA Championship content

• Ben Coley's outright betting preview
• PGA Championship: The big questions
• PGA Championship specials
• PGA Championship longshots
• Southern Hills hole-by-hole guide
• Betfair... Only Bettor: US PGA podcast
• Spieth sets sights on career grand slam
• Tiger Woods will 'expect a lot more'