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Ben Coley previews the final round of the PGA Championship
With a 50/1 tip in the mix, how does Ben Coley expect round four of the season's final major to go? Find out in his latest preview.
Recommended bets: PGA Championship R4
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"But while Kisner will be hard on himself, as he was immediately after the tournament, I retain faith in his ability under pressure."
That's a line from a column I wrote after Kevin Kisner narrowly missed out on the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the spring, an event for which I'd put him up at 66/1. The basis of the column was that while some might see a player who threw it away, I saw one who just had things go against him. I believed in Kisner's ability to close before the tournament, and would continue to do so.
Fast forward five months and Kisner, who has since added a second PGA Tour title with a really impressive display in Texas, finds himself with a one-shot lead in the season's final major - and it probably should be a couple more.
The 33-year old played beautifully on Saturday, slinging his five-yard draw around Quail Hollow with absolute faith in the process he keeps talking about. For the most part, playing with a moody Hideki Matsuyama and a painfully slow Jason Day didn't bother him, and with a handful of holes left he was four clear of the former, his biggest danger on paper.
Then came a rare mental mistake. Having missed the 16th fairway, Kisner should surely have aimed for the front bunker with his second, but instead stayed aggressive and missed left, finding water and, ultimately, making double. After another birdie putt grazed the edge at 17, a closing bogey saw his advantage reduced to one.
Now, it's not just a question of whether he can hold it together. Kisner could be totally unaffected by the nerves which are attached to this situation, and he could still finish fifth. In other words, those late mistakes took control of the tournament out of his hands. As he put it, this is now a 'dog fight', a shootout, whatever you want to call it.
And there can be no escaping the fact that Matsuyama is one back despite being displeased with just about every shot he hit yesterday. The Japanese, now quoted at a best of 15/8, remains the man to beat as he has looked since storming back from a disappointing start on Thursday afternoon.
I'm still concerned that the pressure of being the first man from Japan to win a major could weigh heavily on Hideki, however, and hand on heart the best bet at this stage is the one I don't need to back: Justin Thomas.
Not that we saw much of it, but Thomas appeared to breeze through the back-nine yesterday. He had genuine birdie chances at 16, 17 and 18, which puts him in a very select group given the carnage we saw alongside him with Rickie Fowler and Paul Casey.
Two shots back means he's just out of the limelight in a way that he wasn't at Erin Hills, where he was favourite with 18 holes to play and teed off in the final group, and that means he could be one controlled round away from a first major championship.
A close friend of Jordan Spieth, he's definitely going to be helped along by what happened at Royal Birkdale last month and having struck the ball really well at Firestone, he's carried confidence and momentum into the major which seems to best suit his game.
Having advised Thomas at 50s pre-tournament I'm not getting involved again, but those without a position at this stage are advised to back him each-way at 11/2, rather than Louis Oosthuizen at a couple of points bigger.
On the one hand, Oostuizen could be considered value given his outstanding major record, but the South African injured himself yesterday and it remains to be seen whether his arm is fully recovered. That alone is just enough of a worry to overlook the hard-to-predict former Open champion.
As for a two-ball bet, both Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson look short enough against class opponents Bill Haas and Keegan Bradley, who each can be backed at upwards of 2/1.
That said, the best bet is Robert Streb to beat Chris Wood at 11/8.
Wood does have previous when it comes to cutting through the pack during the weekend of a major - in fact, he did it again at the Open Championship last month.
But Streb boasts an enviable record of his own, particularly in this championship where he's bidding for a third straight top-10 finish in as many starts, a remarkable thing for a mid-tier PGA Tour player with just the one title to his name.
He's also bidding for a fourth consecutive top-30 finish at Quail Hollow, where he was fourth in 2015, and those comfort levels would earn him narrow favouritism with me - although I must stress narrow.
Perhaps because UK punters aren't so familiar with Streb, the market has it the other way and bet365's 11/8 about Streb looks particularly generous.
This is very much a price-based punt rather than the preferred combination of price plus strong fancy so I will keep stakes to a minimum, but 11/8 about at the most an even-money shot is a price worth taking. Anything odds-against is acceptable, too.
Posted at 1232 BST on 13/08/17.